0z euro

[earthlight]

If the phase was a frame or two faster... would the pattern support a storm going up the coast like a nor'easter? Fun for everyone?

I wouldn't say that's the most likely thing. This type of phase supports more of a "hook" type cyclogenesis development and then a northwest retrograde..so somebody is going to get screwed.

[tombo82685]

lol its like a merry go round with that h5 over the northeast. The storms blow up over the ocean then retrgrade into newfoundland then towards montreal and quebec

[yoda]

I wouldn't say that's the most likely thing. This type of phase supports more of a "hook" type cyclogenesis development and then a northwest retrograde..so somebody is going to get screwed.

Ah ok thanks. Was this run similar to that 12z run of a few days ago that hit the MA and NE... but skipped PHL-NYC?

[earthlight]

The Polar Vortex sits over Southeast Canada and the Northeast for a week.

[tombo82685]

If the phase was a frame or two faster... would the pattern support a storm going up the coast like a nor'easter? Fun for everyone?

what i think you also need is the clipper to trend north alittle. Bring that north by 100 miles phl and dc get into accum snows, then phase the energy to give a miller b to nyc north.

[earthlight]

Ah ok thanks. Was this run similar to that 12z run of a few days ago that hit the MA and NE... but skipped PHL-NYC?

Similar idea, but weaker with the initial shortwave coming across the international border day 3---so the end result was a slower start and a further east deepening of the surface low itself.

[tombo82685]

hr 192 1004 low in eastern col

[tombo82685]

the euro ens are going to be interesting when they come out to see if there is any support

[earthlight]

The PV over the northeast finally phases with a huge polar shortwave over Northern Canada at 192..and starts pulling north..but the NAO block has been shot to hell. We will see if it can redevelop.

[MillzPirate]

whats the precip look like for NC/lower Va with the clipper? any frozen?

[tombo82685]

whats the precip look like for NC/lower Va with the clipper? any frozen?

id say from northern nc north you see frozen precip. once into va thats the best chance for accum snow esp around the richmond area and central va

[NaoPos]

The Polar Vortex sits over Southeast Canada and the Northeast for a week.

sounds cold... 850 temps?

-15 through MA?

[earthlight]

Completely ate away at the NAO block..it's nonexistent by 210 hrs

[tombo82685]

hr 216 storm organizing over middle of country

[earthlight]

hr 216 storm organizing over middle of country

Take a look at the H5 NHEM maps. Pretty ugly. Good thing it's in fantasy land.

[tombo82685]

sounds cold... 850 temps?

-15 through MA?

-12 for our area

[tombo82685]

Take a look at the H5 NHEM maps. Pretty ugly. Good thing it's in fantasy land.

yea its a southerly flow out ahead of it

[tombo82685]

1028 high over the lakes hr 222

[tombo82685]

hr 240 1012 sotrm over la, 1036 high just above ny state. Tremendous ridging out ahead of that storm, most likely it would cut inland

[earthlight]

How far west did the precip extend? RI, CT, E LI?

Doesn't get much further west than the actual tip of Cape Cod. Very tight gradient to the west of there.

[tombo82685]

How far west did the precip extend? RI, CT, E LI?

you guys may get skirted, but the cape gets hit the best

[earthlight]

Much obliged.

To aid in a visual....0.25" barely gets to Boston and Eastern MA..Rhode Island doesn't get much other than light snow showers which would the case for Long Island as well. The gradient is extremely, extremely tight as a result of the phase and the upper level low.

[tombo82685]

To aid in a visual....0.25" barely gets to Boston and Eastern MA..Rhode Island doesn't get much other than light snow showers which would the case for Long Island as well. The gradient is extremely, extremely tight as a result of the phase and the upper level low.

john, the atlantic looks blah on the euro at day 10, but the pacific looks decent to my eyes, nice ridge out west, and is that a -epo trying to go in alaksa?

[CooL]

what would have to happen to allow the trough to go neg sooner and result in a faster phase? is this theoretically possible?

[tombo82685]

what would have to happen to allow the trough to go neg sooner and result in a faster phase? is this theoretically possible?

john is better at these things, but i would think you would need a more potent shortwave, aka the clipper, and maybe relax the vortex a little....just my 2 cents...

[earthlight]

john is better at these things, but i would think you would need a more potent shortwave, aka the clipper, and maybe relax the vortex a little....just my 2 cents...

You are absolutely correct.

If you go all the way back to initialization, check out the shortwaves origination. Directly over the north central Pacific in a sparse data ingestion area. I think we still have some changes to go through here.

Your point about the more potent shortwave is very important as well. The 12z Euro from two days ago had that shortwave closed off at H5 over the OH valley. The GFS now has it flat, and the Euro tonight is slightly more robust.

[earthlight]

john, the atlantic looks blah on the euro at day 10, but the pacific looks decent to my eyes, nice ridge out west, and is that a -epo trying to go in alaksa?

It's not bad but it probably won't save at least a short period of an unfavorable pattern. The NAO is completely gone and the heights are pumping as a result. I do like the ridge on the west coast and the -EPO at least giving it a shot, but we need that Atlantic to reorganize. It's a long ways out, though, so it's all speculation anyways. This is the first time I've seen the Euro completely erode the -NAO in a few days.

[CooL]

Thanks guys, lets hope we get some better model agreement tommorrow. Its interesting what Earthlight is saying about sparse data ingestion in the model, that could certainly be a big factor in the outcome of the storm in these model runs.

[earthlight]

You are absolutely correct.

If you go all the way back to initialization, check out the shortwaves origination. Directly over the north central Pacific in a sparse data ingestion area. I think we still have some changes to go through here.

Your point about the more potent shortwave is very important as well. The 12z Euro from two days ago had that shortwave closed off at H5 over the OH valley. The GFS now has it flat, and the Euro tonight is slightly more robust.

All of that being said, even if all that does occur, the downstream flow is just not there for a big storm system to affect everybody. With the northwest flow at H5 initially, even a strong clipper shortwave and a phase with the vortex would cause a hook type redevelopment which means: a slow development of the CCB (it would develop as the system retrogrades) and the likelihood of a huge screwzone as the storm swings northeast, north, and then is tugged northwest under the ULL.

[Nikolai]

All of that being said, even if all that does occur, the downstream flow is just not there for a big storm system to affect everybody. With the northwest flow at H5 initially, even a strong clipper shortwave and a phase with the vortex would cause a hook type redevelopment which means: a slow development of the CCB (it would develop as the system retrogrades) and the likelihood of a huge screwzone as the storm swings northeast, north, and then is tugged northwest under the ULL.

Basically, if it does end up phasing the storm could end up as some sort of variant on 12/30/2000; there could be great potential for those immediately under the deformation zone, but the gradient between snow/no snow will be severe, and if it phases too quickly whoever is on the eastern side could have precip issues. It's a very sticky situation, and even if the storm phases, odds do not favor a significant impact on the NY area (although the potential is clearly there).