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May 3, 2011 - Severe Threat Discussion/Obs


Kmlwx

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2000 SPC OTLK remains same... notes some convective inhibtion on the 18z KIAD SPEC sounding (aka cap).. says ref MD 692 for more info and that the cap will gradually erode due to magnitude of surface heating and modest moistening of low levels

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 263

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

350 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 263 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MDC001-043-040200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0263.110503T1950Z-110504T0200Z/

MD

. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY WASHINGTON

PAC001-009-011-015-025-027-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-067-069-

071-075-077-079-081-087-089-093-095-097-099-103-107-109-113-115-

117-119-127-131-133-040200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0263.110503T1950Z-110504T0200Z/

PA

. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BEDFORD BERKS

BRADFORD CARBON CENTRE

CLINTON COLUMBIA CUMBERLAND

DAUPHIN FRANKLIN FULTON

HUNTINGDON JUNIATA LACKAWANNA

LANCASTER LEBANON LEHIGH

LUZERNE LYCOMING MIFFLIN

MONROE MONTOUR NORTHAMPTON

NORTHUMBERLAND PERRY PIKE

SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN

SUSQUEHANNA TIOGA UNION

WAYNE WYOMING YORK

VAC043-069-840-040200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0263.110503T1950Z-110504T0200Z/

VA

. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLARKE FREDERICK

VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

WINCHESTER

WVC003-027-037-057-065-040200-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0263.110503T1950Z-110504T0200Z/

WV

. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY HAMPSHIRE JEFFERSON

MINERAL MORGAN

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It does look weird... maybe cause we will get added later when storms form? Thats the only reason I can see for the weird shape

The last HRRR I looked at, it didn't have anything even close to being in the area until after 8pm. Plus its clouded up quite a bit in the last hour or so.

[ian]MEH[/ian]

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2000 SPC OTLK remains same... notes some convective inhibtion on the 18z KIAD SPEC sounding (aka cap).. says ref MD 692 for more info and that the cap will gradually erode due to magnitude of surface heating and modest moistening of low levels

KIAD 18Z May 3 sounding

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