Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Discuss the current event here now - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 What do we do without Ian's MEH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 i'll write him a script that can post 'meh' every hour while he's away.... What do we do without Ian's MEH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 18z SPEC sounding at KIAD should be out soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 What do we do without Ian's MEH? Without his meh we will just have to assume it will be an amazing event. i'll write him a script that can post 'meh' every hour while he's away.... Can you write one for BethesdaWx that reports high winds and damage as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 18z SPEC sounding at KIAD should be out soon With DST 18z is at 2pm isn't it Yoda? Doesn't that mean it is released closer to 2pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Parameters look meh.. if something does get going above the crappy mid-level lapse rates then it could get intresting in the northern counties where dynamics (closer to the Low) are better. Best chance is for some kind of QLCS extending to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Without his meh we will just have to assume it will be an amazing event. Can you write one for BethesdaWx that reports high winds and damage as well? Flooding, massive lightning strikes, grapefruit sized hail too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 there's a picture of BethesdaWx on the wall at the LWX office that says "do not accept storm reports from this person" j/k Flooding, massive lightning strikes, grapefruit sized hail too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 there's a picture of BethesdaWx on the wall at the LWX office that says "do not accept storm reports from this person" j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 If we do get storms, BB will need to take notes on his observations... I'd hate for him to waste his 5 posts so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Meh. (Which will undoubtedly turn into the storms of the year since I have a soccer game tonight...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 What time are you guys thinking the storms will be passing through central MD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Hmmm... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0692.html Think it will be a tor or stw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Hmmm... http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0692.html Think it will be a tor or stw? At this rate, they should just put up a Tornado Watch for the rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Hmmm... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0692.html Think it will be a tor or stw? I'm guessing STW - the body of the mesoscale disco says "AN isolated tornado" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I'm guessing STW - the body of the mesoscale disco says "AN isolated tornado" Thats what I thought till I saw the red bubble outline and the text box saying severe/tornado threat should increase with time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm watch with 20%/5% tornado probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 the 18z special balloon seems to be incomplete on SPC website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 I'm guessing STW - the body of the mesoscale disco says "AN isolated tornado" How often doesn't it say "Isolated Tornados" even inside a tornado watch? It would take much more than a 5% prob convective outlook by SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Appears that the CWG is still following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Appears that the CWG is still following Yeah, I think it's Jason doing the updates now. At least he was over the weekend. Unless Ian is doing it even while in Nebraska today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Afternoon AFD as of 3:07 PM from LWX .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --18Z SPECIAL RAOB RELEASE IS IN. DRY MID LEVELS AND 40 KT BULK SHEAR PERSIST. A CAP AROUND 800 MB WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER WRN PA/WV. 15Z HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE CELLS IN CENTRAL WV BY 18Z...THESE HAVE NOT COME TO FRUITION. AN OUTFLOW/COLD POOL BOUNDARY IS APPARENT IN MOSAIC 0.5 REFLECTIVITY JUST WEST OF A LINE FROM KLWB TO KEKN...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM ALONG THIS LINE...CAP SEEMS TOO STRONG AS OF THIS TIME. THE NEXT TWO HOURS WILL BE KEY TO UNDERSTANDING WHAT WILL BE REALIZED. THERE IS STILL A LIKLIHOOD OF SEVERE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...SSWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S WILL CONTINUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Appears that the CWG is still following You got a problem wit dat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 You got a problem wit dat? Nah. I was wondering who was doing it with Ian gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 How often doesn't it say "Isolated Tornados" even inside a tornado watch? It would take much more than a 5% prob convective outlook by SPC. Please note what I capitalized in my statement "AN" - usually they indicate more than one if they are going to issue a tor watch. I could in fact be wrong this time but just speaking in general terms. Even in severe tstorm watches it says "isolated tornadoes" usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 We shall see what happens, instability is growing, shear is good, lapse rates are increasing. I think the situation is more supportive of line segments with enbedded supercell and bowing structures capable of producing damaging straight line winds and a few brief tornados. I guess it could go either way but I'd go with a simple Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 We shall see what happens, instability is growing, shear is good, lapse rates are increasing. I think the situation is more supportive of line segments with enbedded supercell and bowing structures capable of producing damaging straight line winds and a few brief tornados. I guess it could go either way but I'd go with a simple Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Agree with this for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Goes is bullish as always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Goes is bullish as always... lol at 3500 CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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