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May 3, 2011 - Severe Threat Discussion/Obs


Kmlwx

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What do we do without Ian's MEH?

Without his meh we will just have to assume it will be an amazing event. :thumbsup:

i'll write him a script that can post 'meh' every hour while he's away....

Can you write one for BethesdaWx that reports high winds and damage as well?

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Parameters look meh.. if something does get going above the crappy mid-level lapse rates then it could get intresting in the northern counties where dynamics (closer to the Low) are better. Best chance is for some kind of QLCS extending to the south.

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Without his meh we will just have to assume it will be an amazing event. :thumbsup:

Can you write one for BethesdaWx that reports high winds and damage as well?

Flooding, massive lightning strikes, grapefruit sized hail too

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Afternoon AFD as of 3:07 PM from LWX

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --18Z SPECIAL RAOB RELEASE IS IN. DRY MID LEVELS AND 40 KT BULK SHEAR

PERSIST. A CAP AROUND 800 MB WILL SQUASH ANY CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT

AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER WRN PA/WV. 15Z HIGH RES MODELS

CONTINUED TO SUGGEST CONVECTIVE CELLS IN CENTRAL WV BY 18Z...THESE

HAVE NOT COME TO FRUITION. AN OUTFLOW/COLD POOL BOUNDARY IS APPARENT

IN MOSAIC 0.5 REFLECTIVITY JUST WEST OF A LINE FROM KLWB TO

KEKN...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM ALONG THIS LINE...CAP SEEMS TOO

STRONG AS OF THIS TIME. THE NEXT TWO HOURS WILL BE KEY TO

UNDERSTANDING WHAT WILL BE REALIZED. THERE IS STILL A LIKLIHOOD OF

SEVERE CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE A SLIGHT RISK

FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING.

AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...SSWLY FLOW WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S WILL CONTINUE.

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How often doesn't it say "Isolated Tornados" even inside a tornado watch? It would take much more than a 5% prob convective outlook by SPC.

Please note what I capitalized in my statement "AN" - usually they indicate more than one if they are going to issue a tor watch. I could in fact be wrong this time but just speaking in general terms.

Even in severe tstorm watches it says "isolated tornadoes" usually

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We shall see what happens, instability is growing, shear is good, lapse rates are increasing. I think the situation is more supportive of line segments with enbedded supercell and bowing structures capable of producing damaging straight line winds and a few brief tornados. I guess it could go either way but I'd go with a simple Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

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We shall see what happens, instability is growing, shear is good, lapse rates are increasing. I think the situation is more supportive of line segments with enbedded supercell and bowing structures capable of producing damaging straight line winds and a few brief tornados. I guess it could go either way but I'd go with a simple Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Agree with this for sure.

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