baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Yes, I have my eye on Wednesday and would not be surprised to see the cap breached into OK due to the strong dynamics. The magnitude of severe should depend largely on directional shear (somewhat tied to the strength of the secondary energy you mention) and how badly moisture mixes out along the dryline. Just very frustrating to see these ungodly EML's that preclude initiation on any of the more subtly-forced days like today and tomorrow. Yeah it has been an American numerical modeling fail over the past few days leading up to today and into tomorrow. Seems the foreign models performed far better regarding the magnitude of the cap across the central plains than the NAM/GFS/WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Currently 92/0 in Boise City. Could be worse, Lamar, CO., currently 94/-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 The CU field in Nebraska has now broken into trapped waves--reflective of the insane cap and increasingly stable EML advecting eastward. Going to be a tough call on anything initiating across much of the slight risk in NE. SPC mentions the HRRR--but the HRRR is backing way off on what it was suggesting earlier. Should something break it though--it would be explosive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 One lone updraft tried to go up in northern NE only to be beaten down by the cap, and interestingly enough, the latest HRRR tried to simulate a large cell going up right over the same area where the previous hourly runs had nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Huge tower going right in front of us.. Could be it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Still hitting the cap and falling but they're trying hard now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Where's your location Ian? We are in Freemont and got nothin but blue skies and sun burn here. You closer to the SD/NE border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Keller Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Still hitting the cap and falling but they're trying hard now Where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Huge tower going right in front of us.. Could be it ONe finally went up over SD near Watertown. 18Z GFS suggests things hold off until after 0Z but it does suggest the potential is still there. It is going to be an interesting night for sure to see if any updrafts can fully breakthrough the cap. We are riding a fine line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Initiation trying to occur NW of Abilene, TX. Edit: Dry thunderstorm for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Anyone think 65/57 like Watertown, SD could be surface based? I tried getting a RUC forecast sounding on it from NIU and couldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Where? I think they are near O'Neill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Could be worse, Lamar, CO., currently 94/-21. And just in case anyone still wanted to underestimate the EML blowing out over the Plains this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Initiation trying to occur NW of Abilene, TX. Edit: Dry thunderstorm for now... At 4:37 CDT radar time, FDR radar starting to see it, DYX isn't. Looks decent on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Where's your location Ian? We are in Freemont and got nothin but blue skies and sun burn here. You closer to the SD/NE border? North of Bartlett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Initiation trying to occur NW of Abilene, TX. Edit: Dry thunderstorm for now... At 4:37 CDT radar time, FDR radar starting to see it, DYX isn't. Looks decent on satellite. This development is occuring in an area with 40-50F dp's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 And just in case anyone still wanted to underestimate the EML blowing out over the Plains this week... Roswell: KROW 082051Z 27005G23KT 10SM CLR 34/M37 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 23026/2037 SLP989 60001 T03441367 56029 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 At 4:37 CDT radar time, FDR radar starting to see it, DYX isn't. Reflectivity on DYX with these "cells" is about as impressive as the reflectivity with the wildfires immediately surrounding them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 This development is occuring in an area with 40-50F dp's. -11º DP and 100ºF at MAF, 40s DPs are practically a sauna. I mentioned FDR and DYX because I suspected distant radar might see a high based, maybe virga only cell better. I posted on Texas thread, all the area radars are seeing the Dickens County smoke plumes. That was started by dry lightning yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Back to South Dakota, is mid 60s/upper 50s DP like around Watertown surface based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 -11º DP and 100ºF at MAF, 40s DPs are practically a sauna. I mentioned FDR and DYX because I suspected distant radar might see a high based, maybe virga only cell better. I posted on Texas thread, all the area radars are seeing the Dickens County smoke plumes. That was started by dry lightning yesterday. LCL's are quite high in this area, around 3500m per 21z meso analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Back to South Dakota, is mid 60s/upper 50s DP like around Watertown surface based? Doubtful. RUC analysis indicates prohibitively strong SBCINH, and the MUCAPE level is achieved at over 1000 m AGL. There's no magic surface T/Td threshold for surface-based activity, as it depends on how surface theta-e compares with the vertical temperature profile. In this case, and I dare say for most situations in the Plains in May or later, 63/57 probably won't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Back to South Dakota, is mid 60s/upper 50s DP like around Watertown surface based? That cell up there is likely elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 One lone updraft tried to go up in northern NE only to be beaten down by the cap, and interestingly enough, the latest HRRR tried to simulate a large cell going up right over the same area where the previous hourly runs had nothing. Many models have been trying to hone in on development in that area for some time... tis the place to be. EDIT: lol that was an old satellite... looks like the CU are dying now so maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Many models have been trying to hone in on development in that area for some time... tis the place to be. I was mostly referencing the fact the previous 2-3 runs of the HRRR had nothing in that area then right when a turkey tower went up the HRRR run that hour blew up a tower in the exact same area. I was mainly talking about the coincidence of such an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 We're seeing development in the CASA testbed surprisingly. It started directly on top of Blue Canyon wind farm north of Lawton, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Back to mostly flat clouds. We've been sitting for like 90 min now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 I was mostly referencing the fact the previous 2-3 runs of the HRRR had nothing in that area then right when a turkey tower went up the HRRR run that hour blew up a tower in the exact same area. I was mainly talking about the coincidence of such an event. I was referring to the RUC and the NAM *slightly hinting* at that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Some fairly pitiful attempts at CI in SW OK over the past 15 minutes. If the WRF-NNM somehow scores the coup and these blast through the +13 C cap, they'd be of more concern than the NW TX activity, as sfc obs in the area are on the order of 90/65 with backed winds. Highly doubtful, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Some fairly pitiful attempts at CI in SW OK over the past 15 minutes. If the WRF-NNM somehow scores the coup and these blast through the +13 C cap, they'd be of more concern than the NW TX activity, as sfc obs in the area are on the order of 90/65 with backed winds. Highly doubtful, though. Maybe the smoke feeding into the area is aiding mass ascent and magically weakening the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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