Thundersnow12 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 NAM has the instability axis a little farther west, but similar numbers. Mid level flow still not looking all that hot, especially with eastward extent, but you gotta take your chances if something pops Ya im going to have to decide if I want to take a day off work..weds looks like our best chance for actual storms even if they are not super good but still plenty of instability that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 700mb temps near 12 degrees Celsius in those parts..Looks plenty capped, Best bet will be further west near the triple point. I've chased many many high instability setups like these..Iowa is notorious for this stuff to only be a cap bust. Cap bust is a legit concern, but I think areas on the edge of the stronger capping could be susceptible to bouts of scattered convection especially if any subtle waves move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Also, I know no one else probably cares about tomorrow, but the 4km SPC WRF does show convection firing in the early evening hours around here tomorrow. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Very high CAPE and good veering wind profile in Madison Tuesday, but the cap is too strong for supercells to initiate in the area. However, CAPE increases even more overnight, perfect setup for a powerful MCS to move through. The stable layer near the surface makes it possible we could see a progressive derecho, dangerous stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Hmmm Yeah I know. I'm not expecting that much coverage but I do expect to see a few storms form and be significant hail producers considering the steep mid-level lapse rate/high CAPE environment. Hoping to get some good cloud pictures as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 those supercells in nebraska have my name on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Very high CAPE and good veering wind profile in Madison Tuesday, but the cap is too strong for supercells to initiate in the area. However, CAPE increases even more overnight, perfect setup for a powerful MCS to move through. The stable layer near the surface makes it possible we could see a progressive derecho, dangerous stuff. Well, that would be interesting. The only derecho I remember (and I don't even personally remember this anyway, just knew it happened) was May 30 or 31, 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Day 2 ..MIDWEST HIGH-MODEL SPREAD WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY. CONTINUITY FROM DAY 1 SUGGESTS THAT ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS /SOME WITH HAIL/ MAY EXIST ACROSS THE IA AREA AT 12Z MONDAY. VEERING SWLY LLJ...TIED TO A WAVE THAT WILL MINOR OUT AS IT TRAVELS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST...WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN AT LEAST ELEVATED STORMS ENE TOWARD THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. CONCERN IS THAT SFC-BASED STORMS MAY TRY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PARTS OF ERN IA AND CNTRL IL BEFORE RIDGING AND WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TAKE HOLD. VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...ELEVATED STORMS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE OH VLY DURING THE EVENING...BEING FED FROM THE WEST WHERE MID-TROP LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP /ISOLD LARGE HAIL/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 8, 2011 Author Share Posted May 8, 2011 Our video of what ended up being some absolutely incredible flash flooding in Bloomfield, IN in Greene County tonight - the downtown block around the courthouse literally turned into raging rapids for a while. http://www.facebook....v=1806640123642 Here are a couple pics too - video above is much more impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 those supercells in nebraska have my name on them those storms on wrf look good, i might still be able to make a chase of it if the wrf is correct as it has storms just to my west, and i would barely be able to make it to work on time afterwards (11pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Nice area of the cap eroding on the 12z NAM for Tuesday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Huge latitudinal expanse of warm temps aloft with this amplified trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 my target would be the GRI-OLU-LNK triangle today. really nice slightly backed LLJ coupled with a warm front in the area, getting a se storm motion on it could do wonders. HRRR/RUC have been consistent in intiating in that area between 22-0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 my target would be the GRI-OLU-LNK triangle today. really nice slightly backed LLJ coupled with a warm front in the area, getting a se storm motion on it could do wonders. HRRR/RUC have been consistent in intiating in that area between 22-0z. We're nearing that general area. Into the southern portion of the cu field associated with the warm front now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 SREF starting to show small probs in IL tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 my target would be the GRI-OLU-LNK triangle today. really nice slightly backed LLJ coupled with a warm front in the area, getting a se storm motion on it could do wonders. HRRR/RUC have been consistent in intiating in that area between 22-0z. Cutting it close for me, but I will be heading out. Probably going to wait just a little bit then head towards Columbus, that way i have a fairly ok road going east/west on hwy 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 12z SPC 4km WRF is below... Also, the ARW only has development in NE/SD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Also, the ARW only has development in NE/SD... Speaking of the ARW... It develops a nice bow echo out of the activity from tonight, which races across several states tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 12z SPC 4km WRF is below... With the +10 C isotherm at H7 currently running from Valentine to KC, that WRF-NNM solution for KS/OK/TX seems almost laughable. It's not supported by the WRF-ARW, as you mentioned, nor any runs of the HRRR or RUC today. I can definitely see something noteworthy happening anywhere from PIR-OMA, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 With the +10 C isotherm at H7 currently running from Valentine to KC, that WRF-NNM solution for KS/OK/TX seems almost laughable. It's not supported by the WRF-ARW, as you mentioned, nor any runs of the HRRR or RUC today. I can definitely see something noteworthy happening anywhere from PIR-OMA, though. Yea, I just saw 700mb is +13C over KS/OK. Going to be one of the "off" days for the ole 4km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 With the +10 C isotherm at H7 currently running from Valentine to KC, that WRF-NNM solution for KS/OK/TX seems almost laughable. It's not supported by the WRF-ARW, as you mentioned, nor any runs of the HRRR or RUC today. I can definitely see something noteworthy happening anywhere from PIR-OMA, though. Yeah I saw the SPC WRF and chuckled--not really sure what it was doing. It was also trying to initiate convection over portions of eastern KS by 17/18Z--I am assuming with some of the ACCAS over that area now. That obviously didn't pan out. The amazingly dry EML advecting out of the high plains is evident in WV--DDC sounding is a good indicator of what will be advecting over much of the plains through the remainder of the afternoon. The convective happy HRRR is also backing way off from what it was suggesting earlier today. 18Z NAM rolling in is also backing way off over much of the slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 With the +10 C isotherm at H7 currently running from Valentine to KC, that WRF-NNM solution for KS/OK/TX seems almost laughable. It's not supported by the WRF-ARW, as you mentioned, nor any runs of the HRRR or RUC today. I can definitely see something noteworthy happening anywhere from PIR-OMA, though. Yeah it's amusing. There might be one or maybe two storms, but that's about all I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 The amazingly dry EML advecting out of the high plains is evident in WV--DDC sounding is a good indicator of what will be advecting over much of the plains through the remainder of the afternoon. lol...this year is such a joke down here. Currently 107/19 in SW OK... pretty sure we've gone through entire summers without seeing those readings. All I can say is, I expect to be up in your neck of the woods (if not even farther north) a lot over the next 4-6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Speaking of the ARW... It develops a nice bow echo out of the activity from tonight, which races across several states tomorrow. Derecho that MadTown was fantasizing about FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Speaking of the ARW... It develops a nice bow echo out of the activity from tonight, which races across several states tomorrow. Nice. If that pans out it would likely lay down a nice NW/SE oriented boundary to focus surface based convection on later in the day or early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 lol...this year is such a joke down here. Currently 107/19 in SW OK... pretty sure we've gone through entire summers without seeing those readings. All I can say is, I expect to be up in your neck of the woods (if not even farther north) a lot over the next 4-6 weeks. There is still some hope down that way come Wednesday--we will have to see what type of shape that ejecting IPV anomaly is in. Should it be intact and deep enough--their could be significant and tropospheric deep height falls to effectively weaken the cap even in OK down your way. Euro and NAM offer some hope in a strong ejecting secondary and compact IPV anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Nice. If that pans out it would likely lay down a nice NW/SE oriented boundary to focus surface based convection on later in the day or early evening. If it clears out in time. Based on the map, this would be rolling through early to mid afternoon, so I'm not sure there would be enough time for the atmosphere to recover. Regardless, most of us east of the Plains weren't expecting anything of note until Wednesday, so this would still be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 lol...this year is such a joke down here. Currently 107/19 in SW OK... pretty sure we've gone through entire summers without seeing those readings. All I can say is, I expect to be up in your neck of the woods (if not even farther north) a lot over the next 4-6 weeks. Currently 92/0 in Boise City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Yeah it is the 18Z NAM--but it is going back to that pretty sick look in terms of the secondary system Wednesday across the plains through 54 hours. Nearly subsynoptic compact IPV maxes like that will be difficult for the models to handle--but the potential for deep tropospheric cyclogenesis/height falls and locally very strong wind fields and resultant shear is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 There is still some hope down that way come Wednesday--we will have to see what type of shape that ejecting IPV anomaly is in. Should it be intact and deep enough--their could be significant and tropospheric deep height falls to effectively weaken the cap even in OK down your way. Euro and NAM offer some hope in a strong ejecting secondary and compact IPV anomaly. Yes, I have my eye on Wednesday and would not be surprised to see the cap breached into OK due to the strong dynamics. The magnitude of severe should depend largely on directional shear (somewhat tied to the strength of the secondary energy you mention) and how badly moisture mixes out along the dryline. Just very frustrating to see these ungodly EML's that preclude initiation on any of the more subtly-forced days like today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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