Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I'm semi-excited locally. CRP soundings suggests 700 mb cap is easily broken, and it looks like just a little Sun will give us ~4000 J/Kg CAPE. Light low level winds, but at least the storms are moving into the inflow. 0 to 6 km shear meager, 33 knots, but Westerlies increase from about 15 knots to over 100 knots at 200 mb in the fat part of the CAPE curve. Maybe some hail, despite high WBZ and freezing level... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 840 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 TXC127-323-507-121415- /O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-110512T1415Z/ ZAVALA TX-MAVERICK TX-DIMMIT TX- 840 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN DIMMIT...MAVERICK AND SOUTHWESTERN ZAVALA COUNTIES... AT 832 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COMETA...OR 12 MILES WEST OF CRYSTAL CITY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE WINTER HAVEN. THIS IS A SEVERE STORM WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I like the way SPC thinks... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0846 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL THROUGH N-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 121346Z - 121445Z STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD AND NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND N-CNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MCS COLD POOL FROM JUST SW OF STEPHENVILLE SWD THROUGH S-CNTRL TX. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE ACTIVITY SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS NOT RECOVERED. HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THE SURFACE LAYER UNDERGOES SLOW BUT GRADUAL WARMING. ..DIAL.. 05/12/2011 ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Morning TOR warnings this year have later turned into significant afternoon events... I'd say there's a chance of a MOD going up at some point today... (This is just my opinion on looking back at events so far this year) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Ended up getting a few rounds of bangers early this morning, nothing severe but quality thunder. Now bring on the 40s and drizzle. great storm out here around 3 45am....unreal thunder and lightning with pea sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 EF0 Tornado confirmed about 8 miles northwest of Fort Worth, TX from yesterday's storms. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1050 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 ...PRELIMINARY INFORMATION FROM STORM DAMAGE SURVEY IN TARRANT COUNTY... THIS MORNING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONDUCTED A STORM DAMAGE SURVEY IN WHITE SETTLEMENT FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCURRED AROUND 2 PM ON WEDNESDAY MAY 11. BASED ON A CONVERGENT DAMAGE PATH IT WAS DETERMINED THAT A BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO OCCURRED IN THE AREA SOUTH OF WHITE SETTLEMENT ROAD AND JUST EAST OF WEST LOOP 820. THE TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE LONG WITH A WIDTH AROUND 100 YARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Don't normally post these , but this ones a little different.... FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1127 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011 WVC095-121615- /O.CON.KRLX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-110512T1615Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ TYLER WV- 1127 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011 ...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR TYLER COUNTY... AT 1114 AM EDT...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MIDDLEBOURNE ALONG SANCHO CREEK...LITTLE SANCHO CREEK AND STEWART FORK. SEVERAL ROADS IN THE AREAS ARE FLOODED AND ARE IMPASSABLE AT THIS TIME. ALSO, ANIMALS WERE NOTED FLOATING DOWN LITTLE SANCHO CREEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Almost half way through May and it is turning into a real snoozer. After a hyper-active April - this seems like the complete opposite. In our region and many others. Very very few real tornadoes have been reported so far this month. Amazing what a difference it has been. You were not alone with your thinking that May would remain active but less than 25 reports so far. Nothing significant. I guess this is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 It's good to see a couple days in a row of drought stricken areas in Texas getting soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Wichita, Tulsa, both think there will be supercells that develop over E OK, SE KS, SW MO. Springfield, MO thinks it will start between 1-2 PM. Main threat will be large hail, with the possibility of damaging winds and even a tornado based on any deviant storm motions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 It's good to see a couple days in a row of drought stricken areas in Texas getting soaked. line plowing through this morning should take a dent out of the area around San Antonio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 MCV over Arkansas moving NNE-NE. Perhaps something to watch for Hoosier's neck of the woods later. I have to laugh at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Unlike yesterday, instability is good enough, even near the lake, to support occasional high wind and large hail. Question today will be amount of convection that can develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 12, 2011 Author Share Posted May 12, 2011 And of course the HRRR isn't working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 And of course the HRRR isn't working it was so wrong yesterday that it broke itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Squall line just to my W. This will be the first rain in 2 1/2 months in my back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 it was so wrong yesterday that it broke itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Unlike yesterday, instability is good enough, even near the lake, to support occasional high wind and large hail. Question today will be amount of convection that can develop. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0758.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Storms are starting to erupt just east and southeast of OKC. This is in the area of greatest deep layer shear. Cold core has potential as well, but I'd rather be in eastern OK today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I'll be honest, I have to laugh at that Wisconsin-centric Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Even being a weenie, I would never purposely frame a watch box to coexist with a state's boundaries. I think in this case they did. The window seems small for MKE anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Up in a 2% tornado risk none the less. Sounds like probs are about to get upped. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/ERN NEB...FAR NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121906Z - 122100Z THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS...INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...IS INCREASING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF A WW. SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z DEPICTS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...MAINTAINED BY AN EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK TO ITS WNW...EXTENDING WSWWD FROM W-CNTRL IA TO ERN NEB 25 ENE OFK TO A TRIPLE POINT 30 WNW EAR. FROM THE TRIPLE POINT...AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS SWWD TO A 1006-MB SFC LOW 25 ESE MCK...WHILE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARCS SEWD TO THE NEB/KS BORDER 35 N CNK AND FARTHER S INTO CNTRL KS. BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT...A CONTINENTAL COLD FRONT ARCS SWD FROM THE SFC LOW...EXTENDING TO 35 S RSL AND FARTHER SW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT OVER SERN NEB AND FAR NERN KS...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S -- BENEATH THE NRN EXTENT OF A PLUME OF 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM IS RESULTING IN MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY -- I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. MEANWHILE...THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVER THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A 500-MB VORT MAX CENTERED OVER SWRN NEB...COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS NOTED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGHER-BASED CU FIELD BETWEEN THE PACIFIC AND CONTINENTAL FRONTS PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THIS ASCENT SHIFTS INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE PACIFIC FRONT...WHERE LITTLE CINH REMAINS PER MODIFIED RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A ZONE OF ENHANCED SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE VORT MAX IS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES TO 35 KT. BOTH MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE IN THIS AREA...WITH A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHERE SFC FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY BACKED. ANOTHER AREA FOR ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE BETWEEN THE TRIPLE POINT AND SFC LOW...INVOF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. IN THIS REGION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...ALBEIT RELATIVELY MORE LIMITED -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S -- COMPARED TO FARTHER EAST ARCS SWWD TOWARD THE SFC LOW. DESPITE THE MORE MEAGER MOISTURE...COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE FOUND IN THIS REGION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX. THIS IS ENHANCING THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY WHERE THE FLOW IS NOTICEABLY MORE BACKED PER HASTINGS VWP...AND A LOCAL JUXTAPOSITION OF 0-3 KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 100-150 J/KG WITH STRONG SFC VORTICITY IS NOTED NEAR AND NE OF THE SFC LOW. THIS SET-UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR COLD-CORE AND ASCENDING TORNADOGENESIS PROCESSES WITH LOW-TOPPED...SHALLOW CONVECTION. ..COHEN.. 05/12/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. SEVERAL TORNADOES WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL ISOLATED HAIL TO 3.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 288...WW 289...WW 290...WW 291... DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN VICINITY OF COLD CORE LOW AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NEB/KS BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST AMBIENT VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND LOW LEVEL ENHANCEMENT TO SR SHEAR PROFILES DUE TO BACKED SURFACE FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC SET UP FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY...ENHANCED BY SURFACE HEATING...WILL FURTHER FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW...LIKELY BREIF...TORNADOES...WHILE COLD CORE ENVIRONMENT AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL TO REACH THE SURFACE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025. ...CARBIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL458 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... MCHENRY COUNTY...* UNTIL 530 PM CDT* AT 455 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARENGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. IN ADDITION...A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARENGO...WOODSTOCK...AND WONDER LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I saw that. It will be interesting to see how long the storm survives. It should be heading into SE Wisconsin soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSoxFan Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 A large blob of Tornado Warnings now in Central Nebraska in the cold-core area - mainly around the Grand Island-Aurora-York areas, and also one south of Sioux City, Iowa. There have been a lot of funnel cloud reports and few reports of brief and weak tornadoes with these storms. Looks like Lincoln-Omaha could start to get into some of this action between 7pm and 9pm as the low pressure moves to the east towards Eastern Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 About to storm here in a little bit, hope they don't start wrapping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Warning SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI533 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011WIC059-127-122300-/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-110512T2300Z/WALWORTH WI-KENOSHA WI-533 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2011...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERNKENOSHA AND SOUTHEASTERN WALWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...ANDDAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEARGENOA CITY...OR NEAR TWIN LAKES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... TWIN LAKES AND POWERS LAKE AROUND 540 PM CDT. SILVER LAKE AND CAMP LAKE AROUND 555 PM CDT. PADDOCK LAKE AROUND 600 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEBASSETT...SLADES CORNERS...NEW MUNSTER AND SALEM.A GUST FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PRIOR TO THE STORM PASSAGE...WITHWINDS UP TO 40 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOPQUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELYLIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OFSAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE... SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALLINTERIOR ROOM. Not again, thankfully this time the gust front might actually be beneficial. I'm looking forward to seeing if this storm holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 HOLY **** I got rotation to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Things will get ugly again around the 19th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 HOLY **** I got rotation to my west. That was cool, usually it's really hard to see rotation from here but this was very clearly rotating. It's now freezing outside and I'm probably going to split the supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 A couple pictures from 4:48 and 4:52, just before this warning went out. These are looking southwest through what would become the notch on radar. As it became evident that two cells were merging together and about to put down some nice hail, I moved south and skirted out ahead of the cell. I did not see any rotation, but radar did look interesting. It looked best for about two frames before gusting out and crossing into WI. Ten minute ride from home at the end of the day - I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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