wisconsinwx Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 GFS showing the low passing through N Central IL? Doesn't bode well for severe up this way, at least not with that run... GFS has been consistently cold for us, apparently gives us 40s and rain, so take it for what it's worth, and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 under a big honkin ridge with no upper support but still, the new hotness. I believe this is MUCAPE, and the scale maxes at 3000J/Kg, but it appears the warm sector, despite intense CAPE, will be capped if this GFS forecast is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 GFS has been consistently cold for us, apparently gives us 40s and rain, so take it for what it's worth, and nothing more. Please, no 40's and cold.. not in the 2nd week of May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 GFS showing the low passing through N Central IL? Doesn't bode well for severe up this way, at least not with that run... The solutions on the GFS/ECMWF have been changing, which is expected several days out... So I wouldn't buy into anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 The solutions on the GFS/ECMWF have been changing, which is expected several days out... So I wouldn't buy into anything yet. Not really buying into it, but, keeping a wary eye on the changes run to run. Hopefully we get a northward shift. NWS is forecasting 70's for Monday and Tuesday, and the possibility of thunderstorms for Tuesday/Tuesday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I believe this is MUCAPE, and the scale maxes at 3000J/Kg, but it appears the warm sector, despite intense CAPE, will be capped if this GFS forecast is correct. This would only be fitting for 2011. My expectations are tempered, to say the least, for this entire upcoming string of days. The effects of the severe south-central US drought should not be underestimated. The last time a major western CONUS trough evolved (April 6-10), there were two major factors that helped put the kabosh on widespread or significant Plains activity: 1. Extremely hot EML advecting over the warm sector, which is likely a function of the extreme drought conditions over NM and adjacent parts of Mexico. That situation certainly has not improved since then. 2. Low-level moisture holes developing daily over TX and then advecting N through the warm sector, such that even after three or four days of persistent southerly flow, good moisture is never a given. Central TX has at least seen some rainfall of significance since then, thankfully. How big a role will these factors play this time around? Hard to say, but I have a feeling that the encouraging look of the H5 progs belies the magnitude of what's actually likely to happen, at least in the TX/OK/KS area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Not really buying into it, but, keeping a wary eye on the changes run to run. Hopefully we get a northward shift. NWS is forecasting 70's for Monday and Tuesday, and the possibility of thunderstorms for Tuesday/Tuesday night... They're advertising a nice stretch of weather, especially away from the immediate lakefront. Before the switch to a cooler setup, the ECMWF was forecasting temps in the 80's to around 90F for early next week...with dp's around/in the 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 This would only be fitting for 2011. My expectations are tempered, to say the least, for this entire upcoming string of days. The effects of the severe south-central US drought should not be underestimated. The last time a major western CONUS trough evolved (April 6-10), there were two major factors that helped put the kabosh on widespread or significant Plains activity: 1. Extremely hot EML advecting over the warm sector, which is likely a function of the extreme drought conditions over NM and adjacent parts of Mexico. That situation certainly has not improved since then. 2. Low-level moisture holes developing daily over TX and then advecting N through the warm sector, such that even after three or four days of persistent southerly flow, good moisture is never a given. Central TX has at least seen some rainfall of significance since then, thankfully. How big a role will these factors play this time around? Hard to say, but I have a feeling that the encouraging look of the H5 progs belies the magnitude of what's actually likely to happen, at least in the TX/OK/KS area. Can I come visit you next May to make up for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 This would only be fitting for 2011. My expectations are tempered, to say the least, for this entire upcoming string of days. The effects of the severe south-central US drought should not be underestimated. The last time a major western CONUS trough evolved (April 6-10), there were two major factors that helped put the kabosh on widespread or significant Plains activity: 1. Extremely hot EML advecting over the warm sector, which is likely a function of the extreme drought conditions over NM and adjacent parts of Mexico. That situation certainly has not improved since then. 2. Low-level moisture holes developing daily over TX and then advecting N through the warm sector, such that even after three or four days of persistent southerly flow, good moisture is never a given. Central TX has at least seen some rainfall of significance since then, thankfully. How big a role will these factors play this time around? Hard to say, but I have a feeling that the encouraging look of the H5 progs belies the magnitude of what's actually likely to happen, at least in the TX/OK/KS area. My concerns for the upcoming pattern are mainly in the upper level support. It looks much more subtle than the last few events, with jet level winds AOB 40 knots over the warm sector. If that's the case and capping is an issue this will evolve into a more of a nowcasting severe event. The instability looks like it will certainly be there, so even subtle waves will be able to fire something off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Can I come visit you next May to make up for this one? LOL... well, I could easily be wrong... and even if I'm not, there will likely still be good ops somewhere in the Midwest and Upper MS Valley. There are definite advantages of chasing vacation-style rather than living here and trying to weigh the cost of pursuing each opportunity (not just financially, but the drain on your time/schoolwork too), and mobility/range is probably the biggest. If the worst-case scenario with next week's ops come true, though, I'll probably feel bad enough to let you take me up on that. You guys still in KS? I might be able to recommend some mildly interesting sightseeing and photography spots around the S Plains if you're interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 LOL... well, I could easily be wrong... and even if I'm not, there will likely still be good ops somewhere in the Midwest and Upper MS Valley. There are definite advantages of chasing vacation-style rather than living here and trying to weigh the cost of pursuing each opportunity (not just financially, but the drain on your time/schoolwork too), and mobility/range is probably the biggest. If the worst-case scenario with next week's ops come true, though, I'll probably feel bad enough to let you take me up on that. You guys still in KS? I might be able to recommend some mildly interesting sightseeing and photography spots around the S Plains if you're interested. We're in Blackwell OK now.. I didn't want to stay in Wichita again... figure might as well see different places if nothing else, plus hoping we'll have some dryline though that might be lost hope. Not sure what the plan is at this pt, talked about going to Norman or just chilling and seeing how/if things come together. The worst part is that if nothing much happens I'll have to do it again in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 We're in Blackwell OK now.. I didn't want to stay in Wichita again... figure might as well see different places if nothing else, plus hoping we'll have some dryline though that might be lost hope. Not sure what the plan is at this pt, talked about going to Norman or just chilling and seeing how/if things come together. The worst part is that if nothing much happens I'll have to do it again in the future. Tour the National Weather Center if you haven't because it's pretty sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Some detail changes on the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Some detail changes on the 00z GFS. The trough actually ejects into the Plains in a negative tilt manner? zomg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The trough actually ejects into the Plains in a negative tilt manner? zomg Lol I was looking at the 12Z... ignore this post. The 0Z... no comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 the days 4-8 outlook ......... TUE AND WED APPEAR TO HAVE AGREATER TORNADO THREAT THAN ON SUN/MON WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND BETTER HODOGRAPHS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE WHEN A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET RESPONSE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 if an nice little embedded s/w can truck itself along in the flow and kick something off in this environment we could see a few slow moving, atomic bombs. LI's near -15??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 if an nice little embedded s/w can truck itself along in the flow and kick something off in this environment we could see a few slow moving, atomic bombs. LI's near -15??? Moisture return still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Capping in the warm sector still looks like an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 DTX saying that the cold following the low may help to get rid of the cap Wednesday night/ Thursday TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FEATURE A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...KEEPING A LIMIT TO THE LAPSE RATES AND ALSO USHERING IN WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH. WE MAY MAKE A RUN TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN LENAWEE COUNTY. WARMEST FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE DEPENDENT ON THE LACK OF PERSISTENT RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS. SE MI SHOULD RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW FOR TUESDAY BUT THINKING WARM AIR ALOFT MAY CAP THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. COLDER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THE LOW SO MAY SEE BETTER SEVERE THREAT AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAIN FORECAST POINTS ARE TO INCREASE TEMPS AND MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The cap should break in spots with that much instability. Just a question of where/when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Well Wednesday night looks like the most likely window for severe weather in the Southern and Western Great Lakes, maybe into Thursday. Appears the models have made another shift back north. For how long, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 FWIW, I was able to see the full 00z ECMWF output this morning and it showed convective initiation on Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons in the Plains. Precipitation on Wednesday was fairly widespread, and that's the day I see as most likely to produce something substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The cap should break in spots with that much instability. Just a question of where/when. That's what you think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 That's what you think... Good reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Good reply. I'm sure you're aware of the fact we have seen numerous high CAPE events not produce do to capping, though it's more of an issue in the summer months. With this event we will likely see at least some development. In any case, hopefully you guys catch a few nice slow moving supercells down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The cap should break in spots with that much instability. Just a question of where/when. That's what they said about April 10th... and it produced bupkis..... We shall see, though. GFS took it back north, way north, in fact, to C WI....Wonder if that is the trend, or if it will jump it back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 That's what you think... As long as we see some type of height falls and shortwave support we should see something develop. Just as long as the area isn't under a death ridge. This is assuming that trough doesn't shear out though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 That's what they said about April 10th... and it produced bupkis..... We shall see, though. GFS took it back north, way north, in fact, to C WI....Wonder if that is the trend, or if it will jump it back south. Models have been consistent in building a ridge and showing only modest upper support for convection in IL/IN until possibly the middle of the week. Weak waves ejecting from the large scale trough could be enough of a trigger but they are notoriously difficult to resolve this far in advance. Going to be a reservoir of strong instability south of the front so whatever fires will have the potential to be severe, but sluggish wind fields aloft are still a bit of a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Im excited about weds looking at the 18z GFS...one of those days where were already up to 3500 j/kg of SBCAPE by 18z with all of northern IL completely in the warm sector and bump that up to 5000 j/kg by late afternoon with better mid-level flow approaching the area during that time with dew points in the low 70's. Still days away but just the fact that it looks like its going to be very humid and unstable excites me. Now we just need a subtle s/w to ripple on through to set off something fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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