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Severe Weather Threat May 7th - 13th


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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

640 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

AT 636 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TOWN OF PINES TO LA CROSSE... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

IN ADDITION...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN VALPARISO WITH THESE STORMS.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA... * UNTIL 800 PM CDT * AT 659 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOLINGBROOK TO LAKEWOOD SHORES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

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Had some small hail and a brief heavy downpour,,,acccu weather radar still shows me getting some light severe stuff...got a good video of some of it and a good lightning strike...yeah I know but I figure if you can't beat join em, but don't expect that when a Tornado warning goes lol.

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DTX...

THE FEATURE EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE OVERNIGHT SCENARIO IS THE MID LEVEL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT OVER THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER AT PRESS TIME. THIS WAVE IS OBVIOUSLY SUPPORTING BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OHIO, AROUND THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN, TO A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE IN SW WISCONSIN. THE ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MAKE AN EASTWARD TRACK AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAKES A NORTHWARD MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME COMBINATION OF WEAKENED EXISTING CONVECTION AND NEW DEVELOPMENT AFFECTING SE MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH EXISTING AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DUE MAINLY TO VEERED FLOW BELOW 700 MB AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA DOES SUGGEST SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS REFLECTS THE STEEPENED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE PEAK OF NOCTURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAT COULD SUPPORT HAIL FORMATION. &&
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Although I didn't get any severe thunderstorms today, the scenario as a whole was a bit better than I expected, even this morning and afternoon. I thought the areal coverage would be more scattered, but there was so much convection that everyone got their fair share of rain and storms in Wisconsin.

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Well today sucked...lol. I drove 1200 some miles to eat at Wendy's, and see a blue sky that I can see at home...oh well, thats how it goes sometimes. Well, I guess I did get on the little cell near Dodge City which dies shortly thereafter. Also a note on that cell, I did not see any wallcloud on it, and neither did a bunch of other chasers when we all converged at a gas station. There was the base, but we saw no distinct lowering on it.

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Well today sucked...lol. I drove 1200 some miles to eat at Wendy's, and see a blue sky that I can see at home...oh well, thats how it goes sometimes. Well, I guess I did get on the little cell near Dodge City which dies shortly thereafter. Also a note on that cell, I did not see any wallcloud on it, and neither did a bunch of other chasers when we all converged at a gas station. There was the base, but we saw no distinct lowering on it.

Wow! After reading this, I will find it hard to complain too much anymore. If I chose to do that only to come away emptyhanded, I'd feel defeated. Hope you have better luck next time!

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Well today sucked...lol. I drove 1200 some miles to eat at Wendy's, and see a blue sky that I can see at home...oh well, thats how it goes sometimes. Well, I guess I did get on the little cell near Dodge City which dies shortly thereafter. Also a note on that cell, I did not see any wallcloud on it, and neither did a bunch of other chasers when we all converged at a gas station. There was the base, but we saw no distinct lowering on it.

Ahhh, man that sucks! Unfortunately that's the way it goes sometimes for those of us who live east of the Mississippi especially. I remember last June we drove all the way out to Nebraska and blue sky busted. Had to drive all the way back that night too due to work obligations the next day lol. Of course the gas price issues make it even worse in a situation like today. Gotta pay to play LOL.

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Wind fields below H5 suck for tomorrow. Not overly excited about it to say the least. There will likely be decent areas of cape, but without much low level wind support I don't see anything other than a few isolated spinups. What a waste of deep moisture in mid May. :axe:

Wash, rinse, repeat. Tomorrow does look less unstable though.

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Ended up getting a taste of some of the hail that initially brought a severe warning in northern Kane Cty near 47 and Plank Rd. We came across a man trying to finish up on a lawnmower and holding an umbrella in dime sized hail, torrential rain and gusts over 45 mph. At that point we pulled a 180 before skirting west and then south and east around the tail end of that cell, as it quickly skirted northeast toward Elgin and the lake breeze boundary. Eventually that put down some outflow that tracked south following us more or less down to KARR in Sugar Grove.

That south moving outflow also tended to undercut a few other cells that fired up to our west as we headed down to SG. Our hope was to find some new action on the tail end where cumulus was just starting to form but tower formation proved difficult.

We waited out an additional boundary moving from the west that was dropping dewpoints at DeKalb, etc. Before that boundary busted through a couple cells fired up to our immediate north and south, with the south one going severe for hail shortly thereafter. By that point, things west in the open country were quickly winding down. Our vantage point near the east end of the runway approach gave us a nice view of a few light jets coming in or taking off. All in all for 75 miles in spotter mode it was an interesting late afternoon, particularly due to the various boundaries at play. It was interesting that the south moving boundary held up and went stationary just barely to the north of where we stopped at the airport.

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

734 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

TXC463-121245-

/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110512T1245Z/

UVALDE TX-

734 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL

UVALDE COUNTY...

AT 728 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO.

THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF UVALDE...MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG HIGHWAY 55 TOWARD UVALDE.

PEOPLE IN UVALDE SHOULD SEEK SHELTER.

EWX_loop.gif

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