SEMIweather Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Best shot for my backyard is for the right-most cell to develop back to the west...wish me luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 A 30 degree temperature differential from MKE to MSN. And it's a dang unpleasant thirty degrees, as well. Not a dry heat at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Lol at the other low pressure system veering winds across the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 And it's a dang unpleasant thirty degrees, as well. Not a dry heat at all. Yeah, when you take into account what it feels like we're talking about a 40 or 45 degree difference. Looking dark off to your west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Local chase FTW... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 111755Z - 111900Z THE SVR THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN WI AND NRN IL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WW IS LIKELY. CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INVOF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN WI AND NERN IL...LEADING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J PER KG/. AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING THROUGH IA/SRN MN BRUSHES ACROSS THE UNSTABLE SECTOR...VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE DEGREE OF POSITIVE BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY YIELD A SVR THREAT...WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE WARM FRONT AND ANY LAKE BREEZE...A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ENSUE. ..COHEN.. 05/11/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Where are the winds most backed, and does anyone know where the warm front is approximately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Where are the winds most backed, and does anyone know where the warm front is approximately. from about MSN down toward Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Looking dark off to your west? Looking dark right outside my window at the moment. Raining pretty good right now. Mogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I just wish these low clouds would lift. The #1 thing I enjoy about severe weather is watching the storms roll in, which is pointless if it's overcast to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Clouds look to be clearing in central Kansas http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20110511&endTime=-1&duration=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Watch issued from that Meso Discussion... includes all but the lake shore counties, along with Will and Kankakee... Pretty much on a line north and south of the western boundary of DuPage is in the watch area. Cook, Lake, DuPage and Eastern Will are in the clear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Pretty good deluge in Madtown as this thing formed overhead. They're probably getting slammed with hail to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 147 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 146 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR AYR...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HASTINGS. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ROSELAND AROUND 155 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Warning near Madison is mentioning baseball size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Warning near Madison is mentioning baseball size hail. Yeah, not to mention 70 mph winds, very heavy rain and the fact that it's not moving very fast at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I'm ready if you are. Local chase FTW... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 111755Z - 111900Z THE SVR THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN WI AND NRN IL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WW IS LIKELY. CU FIELD IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING INVOF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN WI AND NERN IL...LEADING A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J PER KG/. AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING THROUGH IA/SRN MN BRUSHES ACROSS THE UNSTABLE SECTOR...VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE DEGREE OF POSITIVE BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY YIELD A SVR THREAT...WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY BACKED...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE WARM FRONT AND ANY LAKE BREEZE...A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ENSUE. ..COHEN.. 05/11/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Lake breeze boundary very evident on LOT reflectivity. Best chance for a tor should be near that boundary but storm motion suggests that any cells will cross the boundary very quickly into the more stable surface air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Circled an outflow boundary that might be able to locally enhance the convection when it gets here...this would be good because these storms need all the help they can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Warning SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGWIC055-105-127-112015-/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0032.110511T1927Z-110511T2015Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI227 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... NORTHEASTERN ROCK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN... NORTHWESTERN WALWORTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 315 PM CDT* AT 222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE RIPLEY...OR 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT ATKINSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FORT ATKINSON...JEFFERSON...WHITEWATER...JOHNSON CREEK...PALMYRA... HEBRON...HELENVILLE...ROME...SULLIVAN...NWS SULLIVAN/MILWAUKEE AND IXONIA.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOPQUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELYLIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OFSAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALLINTERIOR ROOM. I hope I'm doing this right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Makes me nervous sitting right on a stalled lake breeze boundary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 What are the measurements of walnut size hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Mid level lapse rates 8.5 across much of ne IL and IN. Not surprised to see the new meso for central IL for large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 What are the measurements of walnut size hail? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Severe/HailSize_Chart.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Makes me nervous sitting right on a stalled lake breeze boundary... And wasn't it you that commented the Plainfield tornado possibly involved a lake breeze boundary? Don't think we have to worry about something that intense today but still a legiitmate threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 cells close to taking off north of Joliet and just west of the lake boundary. The area is quite unstable as well, something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 And wasn't it you that commented the Plainfield tornado possibly involved a lake breeze boundary? Don't think we have to worry about something that intense today but still a legiitmate threat. Yeah we don't have nearly the deep-layer shear here today that we had that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 111931Z - 112030Z THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS...POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA. AS SUCH...A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY...UPGRADING NERN PORTIONS OF SVR TSTM WATCH 279. A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA COULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...JUXTAPOSED WITH EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT EVIDENT WITH THE SUPERCELL ENTERING ADAMS COUNTY IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Lake breeze boundary very evident on LOT reflectivity. Best chance for a tor should be near that boundary but storm motion suggests that any cells will cross the boundary very quickly into the more stable surface air. Yeah it is quite visible... almost looks like it's stalled just to my east... Winds here are S at about 7 right now.. About 4 miles east of me, they are ESE at about 10... Been that way for the last hour or so. Winds here are actually veering more SW than S right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Would watch for a spinup threat along that stalled lake boundary for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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