Helicity Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Dryline already appears much further east than previously Forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 The latest RUC (12z) looks like it breaks storms in far NE/E Iowa around 17z, moving them ENE towards MadTown and a little north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Wow, they just made some major upgrades. Nearly all of Wisconsin is under slight risk, and tornado probs in Southwest and SouthCentral Wisconsin are up to 5%. These areas should have been put in a slight risk with the initial outlook last night, as it was clear that the upper disturbance in the Plains at the time was going ot provide enough forcing for a wind/hail threat. Many of the 0z hi-res/meso models showed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 SPC has put most of NE/N IL in the Slight Risk, with the exception of the SE counties. Looking at the Meso Analysis page, looks like the CAPE is there, but so is the cap...Wonder if we will get anything to break through that? NWS has backed off of the temps a bit, going for mid 80's for a high,. Locally we hit 92.4 degrees yesterday. The cap is already weakening and will continue to as the IA/MO disturbance moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 nice looking warned cell sliding down the east shore of LM, starting to bow out some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 An outflow boundary is pushing down the Lake Michigan shoreline from those storms over and to the east of the lake. Will that have a positive or negative influence on convection? On the one hand, storms often develop along these boundaries. Then again, hopefully it won't cool the air too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 The cap is already weakening and will continue to as the IA/MO disturbance moves in. It looks ike the vort will weaken as it moves it east but should be enough to set off storms later on. FWIW..the 12z RUC keeps the best instability in northeast IL and down into Hoosier land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 It looks ike the vort will weaken as it moves it east but should be enough to set off storms later on. FWIW..the 12z RUC keeps the best instability in northeast IL and down into Hoosier land. the last HRRR run fired up storms in cook and lake right in that axis. I could see today being one of those days storms sit a few miles inland along whatever weak convergence boundary sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 It looks ike the vort will weaken as it moves it east but should be enough to set off storms later on. FWIW..the 12z RUC keeps the best instability in northeast IL and down into Hoosier land. I highly doubt that will occur. The lake enhanced OFB is already rushing through the MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I highly doubt that will occur. The lake enhanced OFB is already rushing through the MKE. What will the OFB mean for the chance of storms? Up or down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I highly doubt that will occur. The lake enhanced OFB is already rushing through the MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 What will the OFB mean for the chance of storms? Up or down? It depends and there are some questions that will be answered soon... Given we see this a few times a year the usual outcome is it rushes down the length of the lake, stabilizing the area several counties inland. This OFB then is usually a focus for development or enhancement of storms later for inland areas, while areas within the stable air end up with weaker/elevated storms. One of the only good things I see with this current OFB is the fact that it's happening early in the day. This might allow closer inland areas to recover and also allow the surface flow to become southerly once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 It depends and there are some questions that will be answered soon... Given we see this a few times a year the usual outcome is it rushes down the length of the lake, stabilizing the area several counties inland. This OFB then is usually a focus for development or enhancement of storms later for inland areas, while areas within the stable air end up with weaker/elevated storms. One of the only good things I see with this current OFB is the fact that it's happening early in the day. This might allow closer inland areas to recover and also allow the surface flow to become southerly once again. Thanks. When reading about outflow boundaries, I thought it was weird that when they pass through ahead of MCS' they actually destabilize the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I highly doubt that will occur. The lake enhanced OFB is already rushing through the MKE. Ya it wont happen up there for sure, but we will continue to increase instability here and will be curious to see how far that OFB makes it later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 The boundary on the west side of the lake isn't looking as impressive as it was a few frames back, i'd be surprised if it makes much of a push beyond lake/cook into illinois. CIN eroding nicely in far north central illinois where LIs are already -11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 The boundary on the west side of the lake isn't looking as impressive as it was a few frames back, i'd be surprised if it makes much of a push beyond lake/cook into illinois. CIN eroding nicely in far north central illinois where LIs are already -11. 2 days in a row of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 cell north of Green Bay has really been dumping per radar estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Not sure I buy it, but the 13Z HRRR likes near/South of San Antonio, which is way, way, off anybodies radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Looks nice for ICT area with that, somehow the warm sector stays rather unstable in that also for areas further dow the dryline towards red river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I'm close to giving up! The temp dropped from 67 to 53 in the last hour. How do you make up for that kind of swing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I'm close to giving up! The temp dropped from 67 to 53 in the last hour. How do you make up for that kind of swing? enjoy the elevated showers that move in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 enjoy the elevated showers that move in later. I will. Waukesha just inland is mid 70s with dewpoints near 60, while the two Milwaukee County sites are mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Luckily clearing should come pretty quickly in OK after all this junk moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 I'm close to giving up! The temp dropped from 67 to 53 in the last hour. How do you make up for that kind of swing? You hop in the car and drive away from the armpit of severe weather city. 53 degrees... I fooking love it Getting my lake breeze fetish on hardcore the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Today looks a lot like yesterday in terms of instability/shear. Whatever develops in WI/IL/IN should have potential to produce isolated golfball size or larger hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 The HRRR continues to develope convection across northern illinois into wisconsin. SBCAPE now 4k in Chistorm country and a small cu field is developing. Lake front should be reaching downtown soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 new day 1 bumped tor probs up closer to chicago. Looks like action should pop west of madison soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 new day 1 bumped tor probs up closer to chicago. Looks like action should pop west of madison soon. I know 5% isn't a lot but I'm not liking the tornado potential given weak low level flow. LCL's may also become higher than optimal in the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Mets in Milwaukee should write a book on the many ways to narrowly avoid interesting weather. I'm sure they have loads of experience on that. A 30 degree temperature differential from MKE to MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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