wisconsinwx Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Well, numerous cells have developed, but they're not severe yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 How about this? Last hour, 61 in Milwaukee, 90 in Janesville about 70-80 miles to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 We have our first warnings, two severe t'storm ones, in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Cell to the sw of the Twin Cities is strengthening as it moves ne. May be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 What's interesting is that almost all of the potentially affected offices said or implied that they are discounting the possibility of an MCS forming and moving SE, but the Lincoln, IL office seems convinced it will occur. They were also convinced it would occur last night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 They were also convinced it would occur last night.... That and the fact it's the NAM definitely present favorable cases against any kind of complex occurring later tonight further SE. I'm starting to think I should believe the opposite of what the NAM is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 There is a severe warning just to your south, slow movers might be able to catch it Couldn't have left until after 4...things were moving away by then. Tomorrow looks like another high instability day but deep layer shear might be even weaker...probably going to be pulsy type stuff around here for the most part but that can be good too if you're in the right spot at the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 from earlier PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 657 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0510 PM HAIL DECATUR 40.83N 84.93W 05/10/2011 M3.00 INCH ADAMS IN TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED AT 28TH STREET AND US 224 IN DECATUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 800 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011 MNC003-053-141-171-110130- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110511T0130Z/ SHERBURNE MN-WRIGHT MN-ANOKA MN-HENNEPIN MN- 800 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL HENNEPIN... WEST CENTRAL ANOKA...EAST CENTRAL WRIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT... AT 756 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ONE MILE SOUTH OF ST MICHAEL. RADAR ALSO SHOWED THIS TORNADO NEAR ST MICHAEL...OR 10 MILES EAST OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ALBERTVILLE...OTSEGO...RAMSEY...ELK RIVER...RAMSEY...ROGERS...AND DAYTON...AND INTERSTATE 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 That supercell north of St. CLoud MN is shedding left movers every 10 minutes. Fascinating to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 806 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011 MNC003-053-141-171-110130- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-110511T0130Z/ SHERBURNE MN-WRIGHT MN-ANOKA MN-HENNEPIN MN- 806 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL HENNEPIN... WEST CENTRAL ANOKA...EAST CENTRAL WRIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERBURNE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT... AT 805 PM CDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL TORNADIC STORM NEAR ST MICHAEL...OR 11 MILES EAST OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. MULTIPLE TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED FUNNELS AND TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OTSEGO...ELK RIVER...RAMSEY...ROGERS...DAYTON...AND INTERSTATE 94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 That supercell north of St. CLoud MN is shedding left movers every 10 minutes. Fascinating to watch. Best looking cell out there. Edit: Looks like it's about the send out another left mover per the latest scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 810 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 845 PM CDT * AT 805 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR EDEN PRAIRIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WAS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH BETTER ROTATION. * LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... MINNEAPOLIS... THE LAKE MINNETONKA AREA... EDINA... HOPKINS... ST LOUIS PARK... GOLDEN VALLEY... ROBBINSDALE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Twin Cities under the gun now with a tor warning. Apparently the Twins play on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Tigers/Twins game just got delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Hail falling at the Twins game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Tigers/Twins game just got delayed. Tigs up 5-0. Rarely beat the twins so a rain delay seems about right. At work. Any chasing or confirmed of anything on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 http://picasion.com/i/1euS5 18Z NAM suckage with way too beefy of a cap (hence no initiation)--sounding over MPX at 00Z: MPX sounding: GFS much better: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Tigs up 5-0. Rarely beat the twins so a rain delay seems about right. At work. Any chasing or confirmed of anything on the ground? Just sitting in NE watching the DMC unfold over my hometown area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Tigs up 5-0. Rarely beat the twins so a rain delay seems about right. At work. Any chasing or confirmed of anything on the ground? From what I've seen/heard, mostly golf ball sized hail or smaller so far. A few funnel cloud reports but no reports of actual tornado-like damage yet in Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Best looking cell out there. Edit: Looks like it's about the send out another left mover per the latest scan. That cell has turned into quite a large storm. It has almost stopped moving the last 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Maybe its by some railroad tracks BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 851 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN MILLE LACS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... SOUTHWESTERN KANABEC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... NORTHWESTERN ISANTI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT * AT 850 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD BASED ON RECENT TRAIN STORM SPOTTER REPORTS. THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THE STORM WAS NEAR PEASE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS ALSO LIKELY TO PRODUCE TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 That cell has turned into quite a large storm. It has almost stopped moving the last 30 mins. also cool seeing it it just suck in the little echoes/showers to its immediate south every few scans when you loop the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 That cell has turned into quite a large storm. It has almost stopped moving the last 30 mins. Indeed it has. The storm is cycling right now. New hook forming with rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 for those who didn't read it, Roger Edwards did a great day 2 write up. Always can tell when he writes cause he usually likes to break it up into sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Concerning tomorrow's potential... The 0z NAM has development from S. Nebraska down into S. Texas between 15-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Note the cells now beginning to flourish under the spreading anvils as longwave radiational cooling begins over the anvil tops and the LLJ starts to kick in. If we continue to get development underneath this area, we may see the development of a decent cold pool and thus an MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 cool thing I noticed with the big supercell north of the twin cities...If you look at base vel and base ref on the 1:42z and 1:47z scans it looks like a small shower comes into the updraft region and actually enhances low-level rotation for a bit. not too often you see mid-level lapse rates of 9C/km around here like we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helicity Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Concerning tomorrow's potential... The 0z NAM has development from S. Nebraska down into S. Texas between 15-18z. Agreed, thankfully it appears as though things will clear and then destabilize again a little later right along the dryline towards 0z, this will be the highest threat area. I've seen several knowledgeable people question the NAM with this whole system.....Let me run through some RAOBS and double check how the NAM initialized. Anyways that shouldn't ahve too much of an issue as there is little CAP through the day, and we get some bs crapvection. http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KPTT Decent sounding from Pratt KS at 0z, will probably head that way once I finish my calculus final. Theres a nice SRH max in that area, getting to the triple point from here just east of ICT is a no go so the dryline play is the only thing I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 11, 2011 Share Posted May 11, 2011 Concerning tomorrow's potential... The 0z NAM has development from S. Nebraska down into S. Texas between 15-18z. That early? is that just the first round, or what? EDIT: hmm, looks like crap (the first round) but it has a cell near Pratt at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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