Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 RUC almost completely eradicates the CAP here around 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Well, I doubt anything will be severe, but the 12z NAM has SE Wisconsin in the bullseye for the potential complex overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Slight risk expanded west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 RUC has a dot of 8000 SBCAPE near Galena later. Would be a shame to waste this instability. Can probably count on one hand the number of days this year that will be like this. Still some hope for something firing later in vicinity of the front but it may be to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 That's cute, completely overdone, but cute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 That's cute, completely overdone, but cute. the new hotness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Small cells have gone up just to my west and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 RUC has a dot of 8000 SBCAPE near Galena later. Would be a shame to waste this instability. Can probably count on one hand the number of days this year that will be like this. Still some hope for something firing later in vicinity of the front but it may be to my east. No way, Iowa is good for about 5 of these days alone, around mid June! 81/70 here..700mb temps near 12 degrees Celsius, cap shall hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Im really curious to see what happens tomorrow with the dryline, triple point setup. The 12z NAM has some really nice low-level shear further up the dryline closer to the sfc low with a 50kt LLJ and backed sfc winds east of the dryline at 0z in central KS but its also showing some big time heating directly behind the dryline into the low 90's with only low-mid 60 dews points on the dryline in KS/OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 These might be the biggest raindrops I've ever seen....they're leaving wet spots bigger than a half dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 These might be the biggest raindrops I've ever seen....they're leaving wet spots bigger than a half dollar. There is a severe warning just to your south, slow movers might be able to catch it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 These might be the biggest raindrops I've ever seen....they're leaving wet spots bigger than a half dollar. The cell between here and LAF went severe pretty quickly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 up to 4500 j/kg of SBCAPE and MLCAPE and LI's of -11 in northern IL...and its only noon. I can't remember a day when we have had these numbers by noon even if were going be capped later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 LSX's AFD discounted the GFS and GGEM developing convection because they said 70 degree dewpoints shown on those models were unrealistic. Guess what? Prairie du Chien's dewpoint is 71. It seems the temperatures and dewpoints are rising quicker than expected in areas that are actually seeing sun. Here, by the lake, we are seeing very little sun so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Impressive SPC meso page today, some good weather pr0n capping or not. SBCapes all the up to 5000..insanely tight gradient! According to the meso page, with an area of weakening cin that caught my eye. FWIW- HRRR initiates development just east of where the area of weakening CIN is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 It feels like Florida here today! Just need something to pull the trigger on all this instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 It feels like Florida here today! Just need something to pull the trigger on all this instability. Aside form the NAM and the GFS to an extent it seems all the models keep the convection north of us in Southern Minnesota and Northern/parts of Central Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I think initiation is about to occur in MN based on visible satellite imagery. Lots of CAPE across the area, with a >5000 J/kg CAPE axis centered SW of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I think initiation is about to occur in MN based on visible satellite imagery. Lots of CAPE across the area, with a >5000 J/kg CAPE axis centered SW of here. It is very close to going around here..Numerous towers going up then quickly dying due to the warm mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 It is very close to going around here..Numerous towers going up then quickly dying due to the warm mid levels. Yeah, there was a secondary cap on the 12z MPX sounding. I think that'll quickly get mixed out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 >15,000 ft towers being detected in western MN by radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 >15,000 ft towers being detected in western MN by radar. Under -25J/Kg CINH per SPC meso page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 May 11th--- at the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas tomorrow: There is going to be 30-40 knots of deep layer shear with 100-250 m2/s2 of helicity 1000-2500 J/kg of CAPE Storm Prediction Center--- MODERATE RISK This is part of their 1730z discussion for tomorrow. ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... MOST SIGNIFICANT/CONCENTRATED SVR POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE FROM NEAR SFC LOW SEWD AND SWD OVER OK AND PORTIONS CENTRAL TX...THOUGH SOME CAVEATS COMPLICATE POTENTIAL IN EACH OF THREE MAIN AREAS OUTLINED BELOW. IN GENERAL...BROAD MOIST SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 60S AND LOW-70S SFC DEW POINTS AND INTENSIFYING BULK SHEAR...WILL FAVOR RATHER BROAD SVR TSTM POTENTIAL LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 3 PHASES...EACH WITH SOME SPATIAL OVERLAP... please refer to the SPC web site to read their full discussion. We may have to start a new thread about May 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Currently watching towers build but they are really having a hard time with this cap in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I was expecting a watch to be issued for the coulee country up your way. Parameters including shear are favorable up there for initial supercells and then a possible mcs to slide se overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I was expecting a watch to be issued for the coulee country up your way. Parameters including shear are favorable up there for initial supercells and then a possible mcs to slide se overnight. I was thinking that was a possibility early today, but i think the caps holds and any action will be limited to a lone cell or two traveling ENE across the northwoods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 10, 2011 Author Share Posted May 10, 2011 Hail video we shot near Anderson, Indiana today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Cap has broken for now to the south of me..As of now cell is developing rather nicely at a good rate lets see if it can survive. Might try a backyard chase for the hell of it as I just got off work..Perfect timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Tor watch issued till midnight CDT for east central MN, a bit north of what I was thinking as those cells move ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I was thinking that was a possibility early today, but i think the caps holds and any action will be limited to a lone cell or two traveling ENE across the northwoods. What's interesting is that almost all of the potentially affected offices said or implied that they are discounting the possibility of an MCS forming and moving SE, but the Lincoln, IL office seems convinced it will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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