wisconsinwx Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 RUC is all quiet in IL/IN overnight. Don't know whether that's good or bad. Any development in other areas? Unfortunately I won't be surprised if the only active area is Wyoming/South Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Interesting...Near Phillip, SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Interesting...Near Phillip, SD the amwx chasers were/are sitting in the bear cage of that cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Not to take away from the severe going on right now in the Northern Plains, but... 786 FXUS64 KOUN 100210 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 910 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2011 CORRECTED W/W/A INFO AT THE END... UPDATE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING WAS CANCELED EARLIER AS THE DRYLINE RETREATED INTO THE PANHANDLES. WE WILL NOW UPGRADE TUESDAY'S FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING. IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION WE WOULD RATHER NOT HAVE TWO RED FLAG WARNINGS GOING SIMULTANEOUSLY. WE ALSO WILL REMOVE THE ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ONE STORM FINALLY GOT GOING IN SW TX NEAR THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING. CHANCES OF FURTHER INITIATION TONIGHT ARE NON-ZERO BUT ARE CONSIDERED TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THEM IN THE FORECAST. ONLY OTHER CHANGE AT THIS POINT IS TO RE-WORK SOME OF THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS THIS EVENING TO BETTER FIT CURRENT TRENDS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE TROUBLE. 'NUFF SAID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Over 100 kts G2G on the AMWX chasers' cell. Let's see if it holds the next scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Not to take away from the severe going on right now in the Northern Plains, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Maybe I missed it, but who is AMWX chasers? Also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 100kt g2g at 6200ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Maybe I missed it, but who is AMWX chasers? ian, ellinwood, weather warrior (jason foster)...they have had a 10+ day ongoing chase thread in the main forum (which has mostly documented blue skies) http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17949-chasecation/page__st__240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 The 00z SPC WRF develops convection in eastern IL/IN tomorrow. It doesn't have anything tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 The 00z SPC WRF develops convection in eastern IL/IN tomorrow. It doesn't have anything tonight though. Not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Not bad... Eh, I'm not sold on anything right now. I want to see what actually happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 To the northeast of Wall, SD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Day 2 moderate risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 I like it. Let's see some Dryline Magic. The low level winds are looking a bit anemic, though...I'd like to see them a bit stronger. Forecast sounding at RQO only showing 14 knots of 0-1 shear. Hopefully the low level winds are being under forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 In my view, not much has changed since last night in model land. There are still several concerns in getting an environment conducive for tornadoes along the dryline, including the veer-back-veer issue as well as relatively modest low-level shear profiles (as huronicane just mentioned). However, I don't really disagree with the SWODY2, as the hail and wind threat is still likely to be widespread and justifies the 45% area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 In my view, not much has changed since last night in model land. There are still several concerns in getting an environment conducive for tornadoes along the dryline, including the veer-back-veer issue as well as relatively modest low-level shear profiles (as huronicane just mentioned). However, I don't really disagree with the SWODY2, as the hail and wind threat is still likely to be widespread and justifies the 45% area. The trend of the low being delayed is becoming a concern for even the MDT hail/wind. Other than that, agreed... not sold on a significant DL tornado threat at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 2 severe storms in SEMI right now, near Jackson and Adrian. Who woulda thunk. Got some nice boomers moving through here earlier as well. Everything is a couple shades greener this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 We had some t'storms this morning, the wosrt of them missed me to the SW. Sun's back out for now too, but some altostratus may unfortunately move back in. This sunshine succeeding the rain however will help the leaves to bloom faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 well I was close at guessing the RUC overdoing CAPE amounts lol 6988 j/kg directly over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 well I was close at guessing the RUC overdoing CAPE amounts lol 6988 j/kg directly over me shame the chance of something busting the cap are about 1%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 shame the chance of something busting the cap are about 1%. Ya it blows, already some serious instability for 9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Mr. Izzi AS THIS ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONGER ASCENT SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE ENORMOUS AND VERY IMPRESSIVE EML TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND EFFECTIVELY CAP US OFF BIG TIME. BEGINNING TO THINK THAT 2011 WILL BE KNOWN AS THE YEAR OF THE EML WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING SHOWING A VERY LARGE AREA WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER N TX AND S OK WHICH IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE SUBTROPICAL JET TOWARD IL THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH IT IS VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE MASSIVE CAP IN PLACE. IF IT DOES WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE I THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Mr. Izzi AS THIS ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRONGER ASCENT SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECT THE ENORMOUS AND VERY IMPRESSIVE EML TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND EFFECTIVELY CAP US OFF BIG TIME. BEGINNING TO THINK THAT 2011 WILL BE KNOWN AS THE YEAR OF THE EML WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS LAST EVENING SHOWING A VERY LARGE AREA WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER N TX AND S OK WHICH IS PROGGED TO RIDE THE SUBTROPICAL JET TOWARD IL THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH IT IS VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE MASSIVE CAP IN PLACE. IF IT DOES WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE I THREW IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 The NAM looks...messy...for tomorrow. Initiates a bunch of stuff by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Ya it blows, already some serious instability for 9am. writing today off. the NAM does ride a nocturnal complex SE into our area by early morning, these things are notoriously fickle and hard to model, but it's something to watch and it would be nice to have a boundary in the area for the pulse storm tomorrow afternoon. EDIT: just looked at the instability numbers, those 5-6k projections won't be far off. With a little luch we'll see whatever fires up over Minny dive southeast into the area around daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Too bad we can't get that EML from hell past Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 RUC has a dot of 8000 SBCAPE near Galena later. Would be a shame to waste this instability. Can probably count on one hand the number of days this year that will be like this. Still some hope for something firing later in vicinity of the front but it may be to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2011 Share Posted May 10, 2011 Too bad we can't get that EML from hell past Lake Michigan. Might as well start calling it EMHell. Can be a great thing but you can also have too much of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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