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Severe Weather Threat May 7th - 13th


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Day 2 of seeing if the smoke plumes from the Dickens County fire and 105ºF temps behind the dryline can bust through the cap of fire quenched steel and pop a high based cell.

Looks like the smoke reaches the dryline near Altus...

FDR_loop.gif

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ILX expecting some action later today and this evening...

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

258 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2011

ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>051-092300-

KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-SCHUYLER-

MASON-LOGAN-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...PEORIA...HAVANA...LINCOLN...

JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD

258 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2011

.NOW...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE

THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS

COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ESPECIALLY EAST OF PEORIA AND

SPRINGFIELD WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND

BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

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geez, and thats at 8z! I'd be shocked if that wasn't overdone.

Well we're probably talking about the difference between 5000 and 4000 given all of the favorable CAPE contributors in place, but yeah, I was surprised to see it that high.

Wish this stuff would be coming in during the day. I only have to go a few miles north to get a fantastic unobstructed view but it's not as good when it's dark lol

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FWIW..the 18z HRRR develops alot of slow-moving convection over northern IL/southeast WI around 3z and it doesn't really move for 5 hours or so.

Sounds like there would be some flooding issues in that scenario. We haven't had nearly the amount of rain that those in the mid and southern Mississippi River Valley have had, but we were still above normal for April, and this week will have many chances for rain.

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Some mighty fine parameters right now from about the QC down south to Springfield IL. Effective tornado is up to 5 per SPC meso. Effective SRH is between 400-500m2/s2 in this area. Sure will be a waste of parameters if nothing fires, but the cap looks pretty stout. There are some interesting looking boundaries showing up on visible from Iowa down into central Illinois. I'm assuming these are leftovers from this morning's activity. Also seems to be sort of a differential heating boundary mixed in there as well. Hope we can get something to pop. Got the camera ready.

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So who wants to make a guess for where convection fires in the Midwest tonight? Obviously we already have Eastern Wyoming and Western South Dakota, but it sounds some may fire in Northeast Iowa or Southwest and West Central Wisconsin and move southeast. Also, Western Illinois seems primed for isolated to scattered action.

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SPC pulled the slight risk from IL/IN. I am guessing there are question marks on extent of overnight convection, because whatever fires would certainly be capable of producing hail (freezing levels are a tad high but strong instability/updrafts) and locally damaging wind.

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TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY

655 PM MDT MON MAY 9 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN DAWES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

NORTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 730 PM MDT

* AT 650 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO 10 MILES

EAST OF HARRISON...OR 36 MILES WEST OF CHADRON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED

THE STORM PRODUCING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

AT 636 A BRIEF TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTERS 5 MILES EAST

OF HARRISON.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CHADRON...CRAWFORD...WHITNEY LAKE...AGATE DAM RESERVOIR...CHADRON

AIRPORT...FORT ROBINSON AND WHITNEY.

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