turtlehurricane Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Morning y'all. Vigorous MCS system near La Crosse now. Over 3000 J/kg of CAPE across most of WI and some of northern IL already, this is gonna be a crazy day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 1:23 PM, badgerblizzard said: Morning y'all. Vigorous MCS system near La Crosse now. Over 3000 J/kg of CAPE across most of WI and some of northern IL already, this is gonna be a crazy day! not a bad looking complex, lets see how it emerges from the mid morning downtime, if it can survive things might get interesting downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 1:49 PM, Alek said: not a bad looking complex, lets see how it emerges from the mid morning downtime, if it can survive things might get interesting downstream. I think there's more than enough instability to prevent it from waning, but it could certainly get even stronger as the day progresses as the sun pumps energy into the air ahead of it. Storms are starting to fire on the inflow convergence lines ahead of the MCS, shows how juicy things are. If they really get going we could easily see supercells with the shear they're forming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Looks like a pretty nice line approaching LaCrosse, but darn it if it isn't taking that right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 2:35 PM, badgerblizzard said: I think there's more than enough instability to prevent it from waning, but it could certainly get even stronger as the day progresses as the sun pumps energy into the air ahead of it. Storms are starting to fire on the inflow convergence lines ahead of the MCS, shows how juicy things are. If they really get going we could easily see supercells with the shear they're forming in. That all looks pretty elevated up there to me, i don't think we see widespread severe wx up there anytime soon. It does look like we're about to have quite the convective clusterfuuck, might mess with things further south where actual surface based instability will be decent. Looks like D1 was shifted south a hair which is probably a good call. Hoping the northern part of that line holds together enough to graze Chicago, but it looks to be getting shredded pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Monster convective complex forming to the west as the MCS outflow collides with southerly flow. Definitely a flash flood and hail threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 looks like its got an easterly jog to it right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Anticipating some noise here later. Could be something late this afternoon or early evening but best shot looks to be after 2 AM. With any luck it will lay down a boundary and fire something tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Both the 0z and 12z runs of the SPC 4km WRF have totally missed the ongoing MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 The cell that just passed west of Madison split. Very sheared out there... Thunderstorms on the leading edge of the MCS are producing severe hail based on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 4:18 PM, Thundersnow12 said: looks like its got an easterly jog to it right now That just looks sweet on sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Gonna head out and start filming, will have to move my car to a parking garage soon too. This has large hail written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 4:25 PM, Chicago Storm said: Both the 0z and 12z runs of the SPC 4km WRF have totally missed the ongoing MCS. i'm surprised it has lasted as long as it has, parameters out ahead of it pretty much suck and given the lack of decent reports/warnings, its bark is bigger than its bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 4:48 PM, Alek said: i'm surprised it has lasted as long as it has, parameters out ahead of it pretty much suck and given the lack of decent reports/warnings, its bark is bigger than its bite. This rolled through around 5 AM here...40 mph winds and hail around 0.75". Nothing really too special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Well at the very least it looks like we're going to get showers and the occasional storm moving in here. Cloudy, but not dark yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 juicy parameters most likely going to go to waste tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Get used to seeing the RUC spitting out CAPE over 6000 in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 5:08 PM, Hoosier said: Get used to seeing the RUC spitting out CAPE over 6000 in the next couple days. Ya i wouldn't be shocked to see it throw out around around 7000 j/kg or so tomorrow with most models showing 5000-5500 j/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 4:46 PM, badgerblizzard said: Gonna head out and start filming, will have to move my car to a parking garage soon too. This has large hail written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 The hail jogged to the north of us but there was some awesome structure here, perfect. Great shelf cloud, gravity waves, rotating updrafts, and the roar of the wind just above us was very noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Well, it is the fashion to trim RUC parameters by 20% anyway, but CAPE should still be high enough to be interesting if something can fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Wind speeds up to 60 kt in the rear inflow jet west of Madison. Don't think much of it is reaching the sfc though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Although the location on the model was about 60 miles south of reality and moving SE instead of ENE, the ARW was the one of the few models that successfully captured this MCS yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 4:22 PM, Hoosier said: Anticipating some noise here later. Could be something late this afternoon or early evening but best shot looks to be after 2 AM. With any luck it will lay down a boundary and fire something tomorrow. The SPC WRF does fire some storms on the southwestern flank of the overnight stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 6:00 PM, Indystorm said: Well, it is the fashion to trim RUC parameters by 20% anyway, but CAPE should still be high enough to be interesting if something can fire. The HRRR has its own issues--but it is definitely about time they replace the RUC. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 5:07 PM, Thundersnow12 said: juicy parameters most likely going to go to waste tomorrow. Yep, A few days ago I was excited about this event up here. The dry line bulge up into southern MN still looks interesting, but the shear doesn't look to be there to support big time super cells, It gets a little better once you get into the Mississippi River Valley between the MN/WI border..But chasing in that area can be hectic. Overall a complicated forecast up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 The HRRR develops one hell of a supercell over Eastland County, TX late this afternoon continuing into the evening. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011050916&plotName=cref_t5sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=t5&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 It looks like as the southern extent of the batch of showers and storms approaches Milwaukee, some storms are developing just ahead. Maybe there will be some small hail with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 7:49 PM, wisconsinwx said: It looks like as the southern extent of the batch of showers and storms approaches Milwaukee, some storms are developing just ahead. Maybe there will be some small hail with those. might just be a brief flare up along the lake breeze convergence zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 On 5/9/2011 at 7:55 PM, Alek said: might just be a brief flare up along the lake breeze convergence zone Well, do you think there will be lightning or very small hail embedded with the rain moving in, or is the flare up convective interference of some sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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