TheWeatherPimp Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Latest guidance shows the potential for a widespread severe weather event across the Plains, Midwest and eventually Ohio Valley beginning Sunday May 8th and continuing through at least the 11th. The Euro shows a significant trough developing and very high severe weather indicies Monday through Wednesday. Latest from SPC THIS WOULD PORTEND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 3-4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE DEVELOPING FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON MON/D7 INTO TUE/D8 AND LIKELY EXTENDING INTO D9. IF TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE PERSISTS...SEVERE RISK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING IN SUBSEQUENT D4-8 OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 ...and up into the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Weeehaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Weeehaa How many months did you guys take off from work? Just glancing at the 0Z GFS, and realizing things can change between now and Sunday, far Northeast Kansas, Northwest Missouri and SW Iowa seem the place to be, Still over 5 days away, which is good, my favorite location based on the GFS, SW Iowa, well, a bit warmer surface, a bit more dewpoint, a touch weaker cap, and you'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 ...and up into the lakes? If things end up like last night's GFS & Euro showed, with a sub-1000mb low moving through Minnesota...yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Checked JB for the first time in weeks, and he is bullish on some severe next week. /rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Should be interesting to watch this unfold. This looks like the first time in quite awhile that a severe weather outbreak will target much of the Plains states as opposed to quickly shifting the threat east. Could this be a transition period into a more active time for the Plains? It's been extremely quiet there this spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Long-range models showing a period of zonal flow, sustaining lee surface troughing and a continuous feed of moisture while the H5 trough gradually deepens farther west. I'd say there's a relatively high probability of a major multi-day outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Going to watch this... Hopefully we get some interesting weather.... :mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Looking at the 500mb and 850mb maps.. Looks like surface temps warm considerably ahead of the front... looks warm here on the 10th and 11th. Also, noted something curious: towards the end of the run on the 500mb maps and the 850's the GFS shows a low retrograding west from the Atlantic through the NE to the GL... what is that about? Is that something the model has latched onto, or a glitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 00z GFS looks ridiculous with instability early next week, largely due to dewpoints in the mid to even upper 70's. Seems a little aggressive for this time of year but even if it is, there should still be plenty of instability to work with. Also, storm motions might not actually be 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 00z GFS looks ridiculous with instability early next week, largely due to dewpoints in the mid to even upper 70's. Seems a little aggressive for this time of year but even if it is, there should still be plenty of instability to work with. Also, storm motions might not actually be 60 mph. 6000 j/kg of SB CAPE near Quincy Tues evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Moisture and instability looks great on the GFS next week. The forecast soundings and wind profile forecasts look great for directional shear as well. So far wind velocities look pretty anemic though. It's still pretty far out there, so this will probably change. This forecast sounding for northeast Missouri has near 6000j/kg cape, but wind velocities are sort of meh. With that much cape I'd definitely still chase this though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 6000 j/kg of SB CAPE near Quincy Tues evening. Yep I saw that. GFS might be up to its usual games of being too cool at the surface, but accounting for that and somewhat lower dewpoints doesn't change things very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Yep I saw that. GFS might be up to its usual games of being too cool at the surface, but accounting for that and somewhat lower dewpoints doesn't change things very much. Yeah all you do is basically raise the LCL and probably lose a little bit of the instability, 6000 J/kg is a bit over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Good note to go to bed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Yeah all you do is basically raise the LCL and probably lose a little bit of the instability, 6000 J/kg is a bit over the top. GFS has LI of -10 here next week. The directional shear looks good at this point but as cyclone said, the magnitude of the deep layer shear looks a little borderline at times. We're not gonna need crazy values with this much instability though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 GFS has LI of -10 here next week. The directional shear looks good at this point but as cyclone said, the magnitude of the deep layer shear looks a little borderline at times. We're not gonna need crazy values with this much instability though. Yeah there's some extreme instability down here pretty much every day starting on Saturday. Models are showing a cap but I'm inclined to think that at some point a disturbance will come in and break the cap and then it's off to the races. Of course the other thing to keep an eye on down here is if the models will end up trending the dryline farther east like they've been doing the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Yeah there's some extreme instability down here pretty much every day starting on Saturday. Models are showing a cap but I'm inclined to think that at some point a disturbance will come in and break the cap and then it's off to the races. Of course the other thing to keep an eye on down here is if the models will end up trending the dryline farther east like they've been doing the entire season. Although there are uncertainties with the details, the overall model signals for a multi-day event have been there. At this point, it looks like roughly the same corridor stretching from the Plains to the OV or Lakes could have a severe threat 4 or 5 days in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Although there are uncertainties with the details, the overall model signals for a multi-day event have been there. At this point, it looks like roughly the same corridor stretching from the Plains to the OV or Lakes could have a severe threat 4 or 5 days in a row. Yep, very interesting setup for sure. SPC seems pretty confident in their Day 4-8 outlook again. BY SUN/D5...THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BOUQUET OF MREF SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON D5 WITH HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR S THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND ALSO WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER NEB/IA/MO/IL OVERNIGHT WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH THESE AREAS HAVE POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MON/D6 TO WED/D8...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH...AND/OR PIECES OF THE TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE REGION. SEVERE AREAS BEGINNING SUN/MAY 8TH AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MAY 10TH ARE LIKELY FORTHCOMING FOR MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE EVENT NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Im holding out hope for a chase on sunday since I won't be able to any other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 00z GFS looks ridiculous with instability early next week, largely due to dewpoints in the mid to even upper 70's. Seems a little aggressive for this time of year but even if it is, there should still be plenty of instability to work with. Also, storm motions might not actually be 60 mph. FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 under a big honkin ridge with no upper support but still, the new hotness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 under a big honkin ridge with no upper support but still, the new hotness. Just nudge this north a bit..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 UKMET is nuts...sub 975 mb low in South Dakota. Is that even possible at this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 UKMET is nuts...sub 975 mb low in South Dakota. Is that even possible at this time of year? I stopped asking what was possible this time of year when we had lows in the upper 30's in North Texas on May 2nd and after last Wednesday. That would certainly be interesting to see unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 UKMET is nuts...sub 975 mb low in South Dakota. Is that even possible at this time of year? If it happens to get wrapped up like that, you can bet there will be significant tornado potential near the low, which would be drawing in some very buoyant air beneath a cold core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I stopped asking what was possible this time of year when we had lows in the upper 30's in North Texas on May 2nd and after last Wednesday. That would certainly be interesting to see unfold. UKIE seems to be bomb happy at that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
upsloper Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 It'll be one juicy warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 GFS showing the low passing through N Central IL? Doesn't bode well for severe up this way, at least not with that run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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