CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Interesting about the Euro ensembles.. Do they do any error tracking?? the current GFS suite has an on going negative bias at D4 that only balloons to -1SD by D10... this bias has persisted for a month now, too. It's enough to presume any such GFS mean for such behavior could quite plausibly be overdone. not sure on the Euro though... I'm not sure, but I know HPC likely runs and error bias. In any case, looking at the anomalies..the EC ensembles seem a little further west and sw with the -NAO ridge. Perhaps that's why they seem a little more aggressive. However, the -NAO isn't a lock for crappy weather. Other things such as ridge-trough placements in the CONUS will also have a say on what happens here. Last year had one of the nicest springs with a -NAO, but we had strong se ridging too. Days like today with erly flow, but lots of sunshine are just fine imo. If we have that...no complaints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 What were they in that August heat of 1977? that was 104F routinely around the area on at least one afternoon... I think you are thinking of August 1975...the heat wave that broke the all time state record with 107F in both Chester, MA and New Bedford. ORH "only" got to 96F in that IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I think you are thinking of August 1975...the heat wave that broke the all time state record with 107F in both Chester, MA and New Bedford. ORH "only" got to 96F in that IIRC. Those both seem puzzling to me. A high of 107F at Chester (600' or so) and EWB? I know EWB can really heat up with a w-wnw wind, but you'd think with temps that high...the south coast seabreeze would kick in..even just a weak one. I certainly would never think of those places as being so hot..but then again I think it was HYA that got to 101F in 2000 or 2001? Perhaps it was earlier than that...not sure of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I think you are thinking of August 1975...the heat wave that broke the all time state record with 107F in both Chester, MA and New Bedford. ORH "only" got to 96F in that IIRC. "Hot Saturday". MRQ hit 101 I think... I sorta remember that, but not clearly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Those both seem puzzling to me. A high of 107F at Chester (600' or so) and EWB? I know EWB can really heat up with a w-wnw wind, but you'd think with temps that high...the south coast seabreeze would kick in..even just a weak one. I certainly would never think of those places as being so hot..but then again I think it was HYA that got to 101F in 2000 or 2001? Perhaps it was earlier than that...not sure of the year. I'd imagine the WNW/NW flow was fairly strong as to not allow any sea breezes to penetrate from the south coast in that area. PVD often will furnace too if the conditions are right. It was probably a perfect setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I think you are thinking of August 1975...the heat wave that broke the all time state record with 107F in both Chester, MA and New Bedford. ORH "only" got to 96F in that IIRC. yep - ORH must have close in that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 From accuweather about 8/2/1975: An asterisk denotes an all time record high:Boston, MA: 102 (tied for 2nd all time) Portland, ME: 103* Providence, RI: 104* Bangor, ME:102 (3rd all time) Burlington, VT: 99(tied for 3rd all time) Pease Air Force Base (Portsmouth), NH: 102* Concord, NH: 101 (tied for 2nd all time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I'd imagine the WNW/NW flow was fairly strong as to not allow any sea breezes to penetrate from the south coast in that area. PVD often will furnace too if the conditions are right. It was probably a perfect setup. April 74 It was even in the 90 s at the beaches, went swimming in Misquamicut and got the worst ice cream headache ever. Astonishing week of summer in April, the sand was even mid summer hot. Crazy week in RI, heavy heavy partying with no summer cops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I'd imagine the WNW/NW flow was fairly strong as to not allow any sea breezes to penetrate from the south coast in that area. PVD often will furnace too if the conditions are right. It was probably a perfect setup. Yeah, but then I think of days like that and usually wrn mass is just a bit cooler, but 107F in Chester. What an absolute sauna of an atmosphere. I'd believe the EWB before Chester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 The airport (EWB) is also closer to the North End of New Bedford..so that may have helped being that its inland a few more miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Shame on you if you ever had hope of anything interesting occuring around here, this time of year.....take the fact that it's comfy and consider it a victory. 65.2\43 Assume boring until excitement somehow unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Shame on you if you ever had hope of anything interesting occuring around here, this time of year.....take the fact that it's comfy and consider it a victory. 65.2\43 Assume boring until excitement somehow unfolds. Yes the wx right now is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 If you are talking about 100F...then yes, its extremely difficult. A bit lower down can achieve it, but the current airport site rarely breaks 95F. They did reach 99F once in 1952. I hit 98-99F multiple times last summer. I don't think I ever hit 100F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Shame on you if you ever had hope of anything interesting occuring around here, this time of year.....take the fact that it's comfy and consider it a victory. 65.2\43 Assume boring until excitement somehow unfolds. BOX dumped any mention of snow in the AFD... ah well. Would have been interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Those both seem puzzling to me. A high of 107F at Chester (600' or so) and EWB? I know EWB can really heat up with a w-wnw wind, but you'd think with temps that high...the south coast seabreeze would kick in..even just a weak one. I certainly would never think of those places as being so hot..but then again I think it was HYA that got to 101F in 2000 or 2001? Perhaps it was earlier than that...not sure of the year. I remember "Hot Saturday" and I'm almost sure that it is a misprint in the record books that lives on. It wasn't EWB, it was BED. Incidentally ACK hit 100F that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 What time does the snow start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 What time does the snow start? Just ask MRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Yep, elevation snow chances appear fleeting at the moment. In fact, that whole 3 days or 40s and rain for lower elevation vibe is all but evaporated in the current guidance. Most are too progressive with the trough for that, showing now.... quite interestingly, a chance for a nice spring weekend in the 50s and 60s from roof top to sea-shores. I, for one, could not be happier. Also, something nicely educational has emerged over the last 24 hours, demonstrating how shortening wavelengths ( seasonally ) makes a negatice NAO correlation different for SNE. Take a look here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html Notice the generalized positive anomalies in the N Atlantic Basin, BUT, also take note of the how short the wave-lengths are, and that despite the ridging in the northern latitudes we have a mid level circulation that argues of nice weather evolving locally. If a closed vortex in the west Atl wobbles too far west, eh, but... as is, not a bad vibe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Yep, elevation snow chances appear fleeting at the moment. In fact, that whole 3 days or 40s and rain for lower elevation vibe is all but evaporated in the current guidance. Most are too progressive with the trough for that, showing now.... quite interestingly, a chance for a nice spring weekend in the 50s and 60s from roof top to sea-shores. I, for one, could not be happier. Also, something nicely educational has emerged over the last 24 hours, demonstrating how shortening wavelengths ( seasonally ) makes a negatice NAO correlation different for SNE. Take a look here: http://www.meteo.psu...0z/hgtcomp.html Notice the generalized positive anomalies in the N Atlantic Basin, BUT, also take note of the how short the wave-lengths are, and that despite the ridging in the northern latitudes we have a mid level circulation that argues of nice weather evolving locally. If a closed vortex in the west Atl wobbles too far west, eh, but... as is, not a bad vibe. Yeah Scooter pie and I were discussing this in the SNE thread. The cool wet pattern seems to have vanished on both op and ensemble packages and instead we see 70 ish type weather west of ORH and 60is near the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Yeah Scooter pie and I were discussing this in the SNE thread. The cool wet pattern seems to have vanished on both op and ensemble packages and instead we see 70 ish type weather west of ORH and 60is near the water. such is the way it goes in the season of cut-offs when everything tightens up and shortens. they can end up as massive disasters if they are in the wrong place, or you can end up in the perfect spot on the periphery and have several days of decent weather. like scooter said, all you really need is sunshine this time of year. sunday was basically 50F at my house, but the offshore cut-off was far enough east that all it did was provide a "dry" onshore flow. there was plenty of subsidence and deep blue skies. the 50F felt like 70F when the wind slackened off at times. strong May sun FTW. that massive cut-off the euro has from day 6/7 onward way offshore...if that thing materialized 300 miles further west, we'd have mass wrist cuttings, but in that position verbatim, we'd be mainly ok for that stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 We need a significant ramp up in squall lines fizzling out as they exit NYS and VT, hopefully that trend commences soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Yeah Scooter pie and I were discussing this in the SNE thread. The cool wet pattern seems to have vanished on both op and ensemble packages and instead we see 70 ish type weather west of ORH and 60is near the water. you guys can thank me for the nice weather. i put down grass seed this past weekend which pretty much guarantees warm and dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 you guys can thank me for the nice weather. i put down grass seed this past weekend which pretty much guarantees warm and dry weather. That's too funny...did the same thing here and now I am out there watering it every day. Recently the other dry spell commenced back in March after putting up my new Davis weather station with it's automated rain gauge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 TORCH!!!! 75 already at BDL MRG is drenched in sweat and dead black flies in his hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 such is the way it goes in the season of cut-offs when everything tightens up and shortens. they can end up as massive disasters if they are in the wrong place, or you can end up in the perfect spot on the periphery and have several days of decent weather. like scooter said, all you really need is sunshine this time of year. sunday was basically 50F at my house, but the offshore cut-off was far enough east that all it did was provide a "dry" onshore flow. there was plenty of subsidence and deep blue skies. the 50F felt like 70F when the wind slackened off at times. strong May sun FTW. that massive cut-off the euro has from day 6/7 onward way offshore...if that thing materialized 300 miles further west, we'd have mass wrist cuttings, but in that position verbatim, we'd be mainly ok for that stretch. Yeah the short wavelengths can be a blessing and placement of features is defintely important..rather than just saying we have a -NAO. Speaking of...as TIP noted, it seems to have lost some punch as compared to what models showed a few days ago. Heights are also higher on the east coast. Hopefully this continues. I'm sure there might be a cstl or something going south of us, but things seem a little better than they looked a few days ago. Today is beautiful here. 70F right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 3, 2011 Author Share Posted May 3, 2011 Thinking about going to the Sox game tomorrow night... hopefully we stay dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Thinking about going to the Sox game tomorrow night... hopefully we stay dry! You think we'll even see any rain or storms tomorrow? I could see us totally not seeing any rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 You think we'll even see any rain or storms tomorrow? I could see us totally not seeing any rain Eastern areas might not see much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Moderate, steady rain... mountains obscured by fog/mist. 49F here at 800ft. Torch fail up here. Local mets are talking snow up here on Thursday. Roger Hill (one of the better local guys, sometimes posts on here) apparently mentioned 3-6" for the northern Greens with snow levels as low as 1,500ft near the ski resort base area. Hoping to go play in the falling snow one last time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Eastern areas might not see much at all. yeah looks like wed night/early thur out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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