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SNE May-hem


HoarfrostHubb

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The GFS was an utter fail this weekend. It had surface temps in the 70s ripping into SNE on Monday...lol. That's really bad for 48 hrs out. It's not like this was a sneaky mesoscale feature like a backdoor front. It just crapped the bed with this CAD signal. Even today, the NAM had the warmfront through BOS this morning based on wind direction, but it's stuck in a more classic climo spot right now.

once those euro runs starting hitting hard on the idea of the big 1030-ish HP shifting southeast out of canada toward the maritimes...it was game over. no impetus to drive that warm front north against that feature.

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I'm watching waves of fog right now coming in. At times the vis improves, but then these clouds come flying in and vis drops to almost 1/4sm. It has improved slightly since I've been home, but it's still rather foggy.

we were stuck in that earlier in the week but today's had higher ceilings / better vis.

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seems like we may get a ton of rain tonight!!

http://www.weather.gov/sat_tab.php?image=ir

MORE CONCERNED WITH THE BAND ACROSS NJ AND APPROACHING LONGISLAND. THIS BAND IS TIED TO A STRONG VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUNDCLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VLY AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. STRONGUPPER LEVEL JET WITH THIS FEATURE WITH RRQ OF JET PROGGED TO MOVEACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PWATS UP TO 1.5INCHES IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS VORT LOBE ALONG WITHSTRONG THETA-E ADVECTION.WHILE NONE OF THE 12Z MODELS ARE CAPTURING THIS HEAVY RAINFALLVERY WELL IN THEIR QPF FIELDS AT 18Z...HOWEVER THEIR MASS FIELDSSUPPORT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN. ALL MODEL GUID OFFER MODEST FORCING INTHE FORM OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA00Z- 06Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WILL BEPROVIDED BY RRQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE WILD CARD WILL BE THEEXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THIS BAND AS ITTRAVERSES NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ALL MODEL GUID SUGGESTDEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD SUPPORTEMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

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once those euro runs starting hitting hard on the idea of the big 1030-ish HP shifting southeast out of canada toward the maritimes...it was game over. no impetus to drive that warm front north against that feature.

yeah - lol - i can remember at least one run where I saw the first frame of building high and didn't look at the rest of the run in disgust. I was right not to, it would seem. Yuck.

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Actually not a bad afternoon here on the west slope of the Berkshires thanks to downsloping on an easterly flow. Some sunny breaks and temperatures approaching the mid-60s. Had some showers earlier this morning and last night before the partial clearing. I bet the east slope is cloudy and quite a bit cooler with perhaps some light rain or drizzle. The exact opposite tends to happen with a west or northwest flow. Interesting how topography can impact the weather around here depending on the wind direction.

Wow Mitch, I can't believe you saw the sun. We were in pea soup fog and sheet drizzle all day at 2k. My ride home featured low vis and some heavier showers. Haven't seen the sun in days. Just murk day after day after day. Beats a torch.

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Wow Mitch, I can't believe you saw the sun. We were in pea soup fog and sheet drizzle all day at 2k. My ride home featured low vis and some heavier showers. Haven't seen the sun in days. Just murk day after day after day. Beats a torch.

You enjoy Big Macs I see...

Fog coming up Rte 2 today was about as thick as I have seen it. Really dense stuff in some spots (esp. where it climbs in Westminster/Gardner) so I had to ease up on the gas.

What is this sun you mention?

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Welp - sensibly this has got to be the worst day of the set so far for this part of interior Massachusetts. Definitionless sky ... totally smooth and devoid of any definition beyond uniform gray, with persistent 1/4 to 1/2m vis in BR/FOG. 50/50, unrelenting, with no variance.

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It rained.

It had been raining for seven years; thousand upon thousands of days compounded and filled from one end to the other with rain, with the drum and gush of water, with the sweet crystal fall of showers and the concussion of storms so heavy they were tidal waves come over the islands. A thousand forests had been crushed under the rain and grown up a thousand times to be crushed again. And this was the way life was forever on the planet Venus, and this was the schoolroom of the children of the rocket men and women who had come to a raining world to set up civilization and live out their lives..

...

The rain slackened still more.

They crowded to the huge door.

The rain stopped.

It was as if, in the midst of a film, concerning an avalanche, a tornado, a hurricane, a volcanic eruption, something had, first, gone wrong with the sound apparatus, thus muffling and finally cutting off all noise, all of the blasts and repercussions and thunders, and then, second, ripped the film from the projector and inserted in its place a peaceful tropical slide which did not move or tremor. The world ground to a standstill. The silence was so immense and unbelievable that you felt your ears had been stuffed or you had lost your hearing altogether.

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