CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 mid-atlantic getting whacked good right now. couple of tor warned cells too. TAFs have been an absolute disaster over the last few days, but the timing of this last band of rain seems like it's handled well. One last vortmax and associated jet dynamics moving north, and we can begin to flushing out process for some, tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 TAFs have been an absolute disaster over the last few days, but the timing of this last band of rain seems like it's handled well. One last vortmax and associated jet dynamics moving north, and we can begin to flushing out process for some, tomorrow. i can't stand these spring/summer set-ups because figuring out the timing and intensity is so hard. everything is so diffuse. and it doesn't take much sun or wet weather to totally change people's perception of how the day went from a sensible wx standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 i can't stand these spring/summer set-ups because figuring out the timing and intensity is so hard. everything is so diffuse. and it doesn't take much sun or wet weather to totally change people's perception of how the day went from a sensible wx standpoint. Yeah we lose the baroclinicity that is so prevalent in the wintertime, so little mesoscale things like a vortmax or low level jet wind max will generate precip blobs, and these are so tough to pinpoint sometimes. I think back to this winter, and man it wasn't a terribly difficult winter to forecast for most. I mean..think back to those difficult SWFE setups that we had from Dec '07 through March '09. You had to worry about ptype, timing, dryslots..etc. This year, ptype and dryslot issues weren't so widespread. I know they played havoc with the Cape, but I mean overall...much of the area was more worried about trying to figure out where the jackpots would be due to mesoscale banding, rather than ptype. One of the.......or perhaps the most difficult storm, was the one that affected you on Dec 21st. That was more of a nowcast event, thanks to the retrograding deformation band that smacked your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 pretty nice conveyor belt now established off the eastern seaboard today/this afternoon and starting to lift north. lots of cooling cloud tops offshore the MA...maybe some heavier rains rotate up and in tonight? With cooling aloft and dews coming way up..should see some decent t-storms tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yeah we lose the baroclinicity that is so prevalent in the wintertime, so little mesoscale things like a vortmax or low level jet wind max will generate precip blobs, and these are so tough to pinpoint sometimes. I think back to this winter, and man it wasn't a terribly difficult winter to forecast for most. I mean..think back to those difficult SWFE setups that we had from Dec '07 through March '09. You had to worry about ptype, timing, dryslots..etc. This year, ptype and dryslot issues weren't so widespread. I know they played havoc with the Cape, but I mean overall...much of the area was more worried about trying to figure out where the jackpots would be due to mesoscale banding, rather than ptype. One of the.......or perhaps the most difficult storm, was the one that affected you on the Dec 21st. That was more of a nowcast event, thanks to the retrograding deformation band that smacked your area. yeah for a lot of the region it wasn't until the second half of winter that things got more tricky. a bunch of the events were a challenge down here because of how dynamic so many of those storms were...like the canal cutters that were breaking the rules and burying BOS for example. some of those storms the difference of 10-15 miles was *huge* along the shore but for the interior it seemed every event was just a matter of figuring out who would get 10 and who would get 20. LOL. the spring / summer events are just such a pain. you have so little to focus on for precip. production and like you said tiny little subtle things can flare up a shower anywhere...sometimes at the expense of other areas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Now this is more like it! Pouring 62 winds for the moment calm Perhaps up to 2 inches with this band? moving fairly quickly though, love to get some storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Temps over 60 south of Pike AMOUT..muggy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 flash flood warnings now up around the NYC...they are getting crushed down there right now. let's get some of that up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 flash flood warnings now up around the NYC...they are getting crushed down there right now. let's get some of that up here. SSHhhh..don't tell Ginx..it's all east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Muggy and warm here....51/51 with pea soup fog and sheet drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Temps over 60 south of Pike AMOUT..muggy too LOL. you nailed this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Temps over 60 south of Pike AMOUT..muggy too More like TAN-TOL and we also did say that this area has the best shot today. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Temps over 55 south of Pike with one or two locations at 60 AMOUT..muggy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Muggy and warm here....51/51 with pea soup fog and sheet drizzle. Yeah, those Inuit people are sweating their balls off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 LOL. you nailed this one. Well anytime we see a prolonged SE flow like this for days and a Caribbean connection..you know dews and temps will come up higher TST..Than some thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 yeah for a lot of the region it wasn't until the second half of winter that things got more tricky. a bunch of the events were a challenge down here because of how dynamic so many of those storms were...like the canal cutters that were breaking the rules and burying BOS for example. some of those storms the difference of 10-15 miles was *huge* along the shore but for the interior it seemed every event was just a matter of figuring out who would get 10 and who would get 20. LOL. the spring / summer events are just such a pain. you have so little to focus on for precip. production and like you said tiny little subtle things can flare up a shower anywhere...sometimes at the expense of other areas too. I had no business getting the snow that I received. I'm gonna get pimp slapped by mother nature....either by a Feb '89 that buried you, or a Dec '92..only 4" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 More like TAN-TOL and we also did say that this area has the best shot today. AWT. Sweltering day at Tolland at 850 feet....high of 57.6F http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KCTTOLLA4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 More like TAN-TOL and we also did say that this area has the best shot today. AWT. NAM handling of low level boundaries FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 flash flood warnings now up around the NYC...they are getting crushed down there right now. let's get some of that up here. no thx! I just put in my garden for the season and they are too fragile for that kind of inundation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Sweltering day at Tolland at 850 feet....high of 57.6F http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KCTTOLLA4 NAM handling of low level boundaries FTW. AWMFT As We Mother F'ing Thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Well anytime we see a prolonged SE flow like this for days and a Caribbean connection..you know dews and temps will come up higher TST..Than some thought LOL. i was kidding. you've had some things go your way in recent months...this week was not a good showing for ctblizz, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Sweltering day at Tolland at 850 feet....high of 57.6F http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KCTTOLLA4 North of Pike FTL..South of Pike and Me FTW STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD MOVE LITTLE PROVIDING A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS WITH 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MA AND MUCH COOLER NORTH INTO ORH-BOS CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 LOL. i was kidding. you've had some things go your way in recent months...this week was not a good showing for ctblizz, however. Believing the GFS over the NAM/Euro in a CAD setup FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Didn't Ryan's competition have BDL in the 70s all this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Well anytime we see a prolonged SE flow like this for days and a Caribbean connection..you know dews and temps will come up higher TST..Than some thought Congrats on your 57/56. I'm actually up to 59F.NW of the Greens/Whites is the place to be. Lyndonville was near 70F yesterday and today with a SE downslope off of the Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Didn't Ryan's competition have BDL in the 70s all this week? Rip and read the GFS FTL. Still can't believe GFS MOS had 70F while NAM had 48F for ORH...and Kevin made fun of the NAM for being so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Congrats on your 57/56. I'm actually up to 59F. NW of the Greens/Whites is the place to be. Lyndonville was near 70F yesterday and today with a SE downslope off of the Whites. There was a nice meso clear zone to the nw of Mt Katahdin up in Maine as well, earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Believing the GFS over the NAM/Euro in a CAD setup FTL. what a horrendous showing by the GFS. remember all those MAV and MEX values that actually showed it as an at or above normal week? horrible. only busting by 20-30F. LOL you know what did really well too was the ec ens - it parked a surface boundary south of the islands for run after run last week and through the weekend. i don't think it actually correctly modeled the right feature that has ultimately ended up being the dividing line between seasonable temperatures and suicide watch weather but it only had like one run last week that shifted the main surface trough/boundary inland...every other run was offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Rip and read the GFS FTL. Still can't believe GFS MOS had 70F while NAM had 48F for ORH...and Kevin made fun of the NAM for being so cold. The GFS was an utter fail this weekend. It had surface temps in the 70s ripping into SNE on Monday...lol. That's really bad for 48 hrs out. It's not like this was a sneaky mesoscale feature like a backdoor front. It just crapped the bed with this CAD signal. Even today, the NAM had the warmfront through BOS this morning based on wind direction, but it's stuck in a more classic climo spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 North of Pike FTL..South of Pike and Me FTW STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MA SHOULD MOVE LITTLE PROVIDING A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS WITH 60S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SE MA AND MUCH COOLER NORTH INTO ORH-BOS CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD. Yeah I'm in Westborough Mass, about 1 mile N of the Pike and I can see trees leaning SSW in the breeze. Basic rule of thumb when you are N of a warm front: if there is a discerned motion to the air mass toward the S, that front will not move N of you EVER! E breeze is different, but the compensating low trajectory of cold - particularly a saturated Marine air mass - will lock the boundary indefinitely. If the wind goes calm the boundary will start making in roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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