CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 High of 70F today? Always hedge toward GFS MOS...NAM's 48F high was on crack. Yeah what a POS model the NAM is. Euro wins this from days ago. If the Euro sniffs out a cutoff like this during the Spring....you know what to bet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 High of 70F today? Always hedge toward GFS MOS...NAM's 48F high was on crack. Balmy 50F at TAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 49 lovely misty degrees Nice cell down in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Good point. I put together a long-range severe wx outlook , let me know what you think and if any suggestions. Not to nitpick or anything, but I would probably extend that red line into extreme southern New Hampshire even though most data suggests otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Where are the days and days of 40's the NAM had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 lol, finals are almost over and there isnt anyone around .. nevermind the 2:1 guy to girl ratio sucks Used to be like 4:1... This weather is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Where are the days and days of 40's the NAM had? IMBY http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stovepipe40/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 IMBY http://www.weatherli...er/stovepipe40/ There were some forecasts out there based off NAM saying SNE would be in the 40's for 2-3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Where are the days and days of 40's the NAM had? Today is day 1. Tomorrow is probably day 2. NAM might end up a couple to 3 degrees too cold but it was 1000x closer than the god-awful GFS which had us all in a muggy sub-tropical airmass with 70/65 type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Today is day 1. Tomorrow is probably day 2. NAM might end up a couple to 3 degrees too cold but it was 1000x closer than the god-awful GFS which had us all in a muggy sub-tropical airmass with 70/65 type stuff. Yeah it's really hitting the ORH hills as a cool spot tomorrow. I'm still 49.5 here at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 There were some forecasts out there based off NAM saying SNE would be in the 40's for 2-3 days Given that it dropped into the 40s yesterday evening, your NWS forecast would indicate somewhere between 48-72 hours of 40s, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Today is day 1. Tomorrow is probably day 2. NAM might end up a couple to 3 degrees too cold but it was 1000x closer than the god-awful GFS which had us all in a muggy sub-tropical airmass with 70/65 type stuff. Well in ORH yes 40's,,and probably Tolland too today..I'm not hom..but if BDL is 54..it's probably about 48 at my house..though tomorrow looks a little warmer than today was south of the pike. NAM certainly was better i agree, but i still think it's too cold fo too long which it tends to have an error bias towards..lingering cold air too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Given that it dropped into the 40s yesterday evening, your NWS forecast would indicate somewhere between 48-72 hours of 40s, no? It was 56.2 at midnight..so it didn't drop into the 40;s yesterday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Today is day 1. Tomorrow is probably day 2. NAM might end up a couple to 3 degrees too cold but it was 1000x closer than the god-awful GFS which had us all in a muggy sub-tropical airmass with 70/65 type stuff. If the 12z run from the 14th was to be believed, it would literally suggest beach weather today. I think the term epic fail could even be used for such a close up bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Yeah it's really hitting the ORH hills as a cool spot tomorrow. I'm still 49.5 here at 1pm. Yeah we kept saying specifically that ORH hills, SW NH were in the bullseye for 40s for highs...not BDL or the lower CT Valley. Some areas of the CP in NE MA will have trouble getting above 50F too but probably just barely squeak it out. Here's your response to Kevin yesterday: I may be dead wrong..I am not and will not buy 3 straight days of 40's and low 50's for all of SNE in mid-late May 60-65 should do it south of Pike Mon-Wed. I think Monday and Tuesday are the worst days..perhaps even Wednesday up this way. 40s might also be too cold for most of us except perhaps high spots of sw NH and maybe nrn ORH county. Maybe BDL and up to you get to 60 or a little better Wednesday, but who cares if it is 57 and rain or 62 and rain. It just looks crappy and wet. Certainly not fit for outdoor activity which is what most care about this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 It was 56.2 at midnight..so it didn't drop into the 40;s yesterday evening Ahh, must've been a big difference between north and south of the pike. I thought ORH was 50> at like 8 or 9pm and I know your climate is closer to them than BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 If the 12z run from the 14th was to be believed, it would literally suggest beach weather today. I think the term epic fail could even be used for such a close up bust. I always hedge toward the nam in NE flow/damming events. Handles the dense low level cold better than the gfs most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Well in ORH yes 40's,,and probably Tolland too today..I'm not hom..but if BDL is 54..it's probably about 48 at my house..though tomorrow looks a little warmer than today was south of the pike. NAM certainly was better i agree, but i still think it's too cold fo too long which it tends to have an error bias towards..lingering cold air too long The NAM will by far and away...be closer than the GFS. I think tomorrow is just as bad, perhaps worse for some, if we get periods of rain in here. I don't see any warmth south of the Pike tomorrow, unless the WF tries to get places like WST...but that might not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 The NAM will by far and away...be closer than the GFS. I think tomorrow is just as bad, perhaps worse for some, if we get periods of rain in here. I don't see any warmth south of the Pike tomorrow, unless the WF tries to get places like WST...but that might not happen. By warmth i don't mean warm..I said a few degrees warmer..so instead of 48 or 49 today at my house it's 54 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I always hedge toward the nam in NE flow/damming events. Handles the dense low level cold better than the gfs most of the time. Exactly. Will brought up the comparison to interior icing events yesterday. GFS warm ORH to 40F and rain, while the NAM has 29F and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I always hedge toward the nam in NE flow/damming events. Handles the dense low level cold better than the gfs most of the time. In the winter everyone jumps all over the NAM in these events. If this was February the GFS would've been tossed immediately. I do not see why some people are thinking its going to be wrong now with a NE flow in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Even the EC ensembles back on 12/12z had this perfectly modeled..lol. Better resolution FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Exactly. Will brought up the comparison to interior icing events yesterday. GFS warm ORH to 40F and rain, while the NAM has 29F and ice. I still remember the night before the Dec 2008 ice storm started, the GFS MOS had a high of 40F here and no ice the entire event. If you recall, we actually had to drain the cold air down right before the event rather than it already being entrenched. The GFS never got it all the way down here. So if you went by that model, you would have not forecasted any ice for the interior except NW Cheshire county into extreme W MA and into NW CT. Thankfully, we were all ignoring it and hedging toward the NAM and the Euro (once it got its hiccup run out of the way at 36h). GFS is a terrible model in CAD mesoscale events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Exactly. Will brought up the comparison to interior icing events yesterday. GFS warm ORH to 40F and rain, while the NAM has 29F and ice. The NAM 2M temps are probably too cold here tonight, but it has the right idea. Notice several forecast periods of thunder...K-indices sit above 30 later tonight and tomorrow...should be some boomers with temps in the mid 40s...perhaps even lower 40s. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KLEW.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 By warmth i don't mean warm..I said a few degrees warmer..so instead of 48 or 49 today at my house it's 54 tomorrow The GFS is more optimistic for you tomorrow, but I wouldn't be shocked if you have little to no improvement. If somehow you get breaks of sun then perhaps, as that will help anyone out this time of year, but not so sure about that. Chances of rain are a little better tomorrow out your way and the flow still seems locked from the ne. If that happens...maybe you put up another 49F or 50F high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Textbook NE drainage flow across SNE... I love this meso-scale stuff. Just enough upsloping into the ORH hills to keep them cool, downslope into the CT Valley, then upslope again into the Eastern Slopes. I love the different between the East Slopes of the Berkshires and the west slope on any sort of boundary layer east wind component. Mid 40s in ski_MRG land and a 5-10F difference depending on what side of the Berkshire crest you are on. Pretty sweet. Also S.VT... 45F on one side of the spine/crest and near 60F on the other side, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I still remember the night before the Dec 2008 ice storm started, the GFS MOS had a high of 40F here and no ice the entire event. If you recall, we actually had to drain the cold air down right before the event rather than it already being entrenched. The GFS never got it all the way down here. So if you went by that model, you would have not forecasted any ice for the interior except NW Cheshire county into extreme W MA and into NW CT. Thankfully, we were all ignoring it and hedging toward the NAM and the Euro (once it got its hiccup run out of the way at 36h). GFS is a terrible model in CAD mesoscale events. That was one of the best EUSWX thread for meso-scale analysis and icing climo in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 The NAM 2M temps are probably too cold here tonight, but it has the right idea. Notice several forecast periods of thunder...K-indices sit above 30 later tonight and tomorrow...should be some boomers with temps in the mid 40s. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KLEW.txt Gotta think some of those stations in wrn Maine are struggling right now. I see Greenville and company are 43, but some of those spots up at 1000ft might be closer to 40 or 41? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Textbook NE drainage flow across SNE... I love this meso-scale stuff. Just enough upsloping into the ORH hills to keep them cool, downslope into the CT Valley, then upslope again into the Eastern Slopes. I love the different between the East Slopes of the Berkshires and the west slope on any sort of boundary layer east wind component. Mid 40s in ski_MRG land and a 5-10F difference depending on what side of the Berkshire crest you are on. Pretty sweet. Speaking of the milford wx mesomap site, since I moved up here, I asked Paul to see if he could do a NNE map as well. Not sure if this is the final version (may still be working on it), but he honored my wish which I am thankful for. Love his temp mesomaps. http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 That was one of the best EUSWX thread for meso-scale analysis and icing climo in SNE. Yes it was. I was a newbie back then, but the talk leading up to, and also the post discussions, were just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.