MaineJayhawk Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 45/44, looks like 1.80" here. I think I can hear the grass growing. No lie. I mowed for the first time this season last Wednesday and I could do it again today if it wasn't so wet. Prob'ly need a machete come this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Temp in reverse so far. Lost half a degree in the hour since sunrise, now at 46.7/46. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Once we get through this week we should enter a more summer-like pattern...temps perhaps getting close to 80F...maybe low 80's with some fairly high dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 No lie. I mowed for the first time this season last Wednesday and I could do it again today if it wasn't so wet. Prob'ly need a machete come this weekend. Yep, I scrambled around on Saturday morning to get the mowers in order and got my first mow of the season in thereafter...knowing that I wouldn't get a chance for a while after that. I only needed to do a spot-mow but now with the rains, it'll be a jungle by the time I get to mow again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 What a sweet morning!! 47F with drizzle and its going to hit 50F today!! It might hit 60F by Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 It just keeps rolling!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 55/52 where is all the rain? warm front blasting through, party went off without a hitch, one small shower around 1245 and that was it, turned warm and muggy in the pm. Gloom and doomers complaining non stop, its priceless, radar says i may get a two min shower in 30 minutes LOL, nothing at all behind that to the south. Gloom~Doom=Failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 55/52 where is all the rain? warm front blasting through, party went off without a hitch, one small shower around 1245 and that was it, turned warm and muggy in the pm. Gloom and doomers complaining non stop, its priceless, radar says i may get a two min shower in 30 minutes LOL, nothing at all behind that to the south. Gloom~Doom=Failure You'll get some rain in the next couple of days. Then hopefully next week improves for all those sun icons for you to throw up..lol. However, I do see a few subtle signs of another warmfront possibly hanging south of us later next week. It might not mean anything..and I don't see a cutoff like this, but the EC ensembles and even GFS ensembles do have a nice little kink in the isobars to our south. Hopefully it just means se flow or seabreeze type stuff as this weather is terrible. Overall though, it does look warmer for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 You'll get some rain in the next couple of days. Then hopefully next week improves for all those sun icons for you to throw up..lol. However, I do see a few subtle signs of another warmfront possibly hanging south of us later next week. It might not mean anything..and I don't see a cutoff like this, but the EC ensembles and even GFS ensembles do have a nice little kink in the isobars to our south. Hopefully it just means se flow or seabreeze type stuff as this weather is terrible. Overall though, it does look warmer for sure. I am dissapointed not even any sheet drizzle!! In all seriousness this weekend looks springalicious, sunny temps in the 70's, time to go brave the cloudy skies..........OH the horror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 Perfect spring day. I may go with the top down on the Mustang today. Then come home and hit the pool. Awesome! I was going to check out the coeds at UMass-Lowell with Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 You'll get some rain in the next couple of days. Then hopefully next week improves for all those sun icons for you to throw up..lol. However, I do see a few subtle signs of another warmfront possibly hanging south of us later next week. It might not mean anything..and I don't see a cutoff like this, but the EC ensembles and even GFS ensembles do have a nice little kink in the isobars to our south. Hopefully it just means se flow or seabreeze type stuff as this weather is terrible. Overall though, it does look warmer for sure. Next week is going to be real interesting, with yet another trough looking to develop in the west and potentially try to dig fairly deep it's going to really try to pump up heights here in the east, however, that vortex SE of Hudson Bay is modeled pretty strong so it really tries to keep the heights suppressed at our latitude so perhaps the extent of the really good warmth is shunted further south to the mid-Atlantic. Regardless though if sufficient moisture can return northward it could be an active severe weather week across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley and parts of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Up to 0.57" since Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Next week is going to be real interesting, with yet another trough looking to develop in the west and potentially try to dig fairly deep it's going to really try to pump up heights here in the east, however, that vortex SE of Hudson Bay is modeled pretty strong so it really tries to keep the heights suppressed at our latitude so perhaps the extent of the really good warmth is shunted further south to the mid-Atlantic. Regardless though if sufficient moisture can return northward it could be an active severe weather week across the Plains and into the Ohio Valley and parts of the southeast. Good point. I put together a long-range severe wx outlook , let me know what you think and if any suggestions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 47.8F here with 1.4" rain total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Good point. I put together a long-range severe wx outlook , let me know what you think and if any suggestions. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Well ... no if ands or buts about it, we have embarked upon what will quite objectively verify as the worst sensible weather week of the entire calendar year (using Jan 1 to Jan 1) for a large part of interior and caostal SNE. It's been feared, and rationalized and discussed, all, over the past 6 weeks. It has finally arrived: a cut-off low that defied physics and was planted quintessentially in a position with utter precision by some demigod that wants to ruin gardens and steal joy in general. Ha ha, I like that... But in all seriousness, it is a wonder it took this long with so many global signals flagging blocking regimes should persist at higher latitudes to unusually late dates. Now of course the natural question is, how long will it last. The teleconnectors are rapidly losing their correlativeness, particularly in the PNA as we get passed May 15. Year to year, the wave lengths shorten every day just a little bit more, as the hemispheric budget in solar irradiance continues to process the hades out of the troposphere, neutralizing gradients et al. what is left is a general tendency for expansion of subtropical ridges, as well as "speghetti logic" characteristic to the flow at higher latitudes by the time July 15 (mid Met summer) arrives. This is of course the standardized model; there are of course exceptions and anomalies relative to that model. This year, "somewhat" of an exception comes in that this entire process is either delayed, but probably delayed more locally. I'm sure there are other places around the hemisphere that have already seasonally relaxed the flow to not have to deal with meanders like this -2.5SD mlv vortex down in VA that will plague the upper MA/NE regions for the week. It doesn't appear that this will last much longer than the next 96 hours off of the 00z guidance, so figure 84 and counting... There is a clear signal for burgeoning southeastern U.S. heights in most operational models, and the one teleconnector that has the better correlation post May 15, the NAO, is neutral or positive by the time we near D7. That also is at least some indication that the latitude of the westerlies will begin lifting as the week ends, and likely lifting out whatever residue of this vortex remains. e My early ideas are that this week is blown - what you see out the window is what you're in for until and through Thursday. The weekend look for daily instability and gully washing Golfer zapping boomers as the core vestigial weakness moves up across our area circa Saturday or Sunday. The general jet structuring will have disappeared by then, and with skies splitting along with somewhat steeper mlv lapse rates working over the top nascient sun-cooked moisture, there should be some CB activity. In fact, the GFS QPF fields shows a convective appeal with light values overnight and exaggerated regional values during the day. We may get the first bona fide summer appeal, with DPs at or greater than 65F and temperatures having potential to make 85F beginning Monday (168 hours) and onwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Yeah next week does have an overall warmer look for sure. There are a few features in the mass fields that perhaps temper things in parts of SNE...but it's way to early to get picky on daily details. At least it won't feature this ridiculous cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Well ... no if ands or buts about it, we have embarked upon what will quite objectively verify as the worst sensible weather week of the entire calendar year (using Jan 1 to Jan 1) for a large part of interior and caostal SNE. It's been feared, and rationalized and discussed, all, over the past 6 weeks. It has finally arrived: a cut-off low that defied physics and was planted quintessentially in a position with utter precision by some demigod that wants to ruin gardens and steal joy in general. Ha ha, I like that... But in all seriousness, it is a wonder it took this long with so many global signals flagging blocking regimes should persist at higher latitudes to unusually late dates. Now of course the natural question is, how long will it last. The teleconnectors are rapidly losing their correlativeness, particularly in the PNA as we get passed May 15. Year to year, the wave lengths shorten every day just a little bit more, as the hemispheric budget in solar irradiance continues to process the hades out of the troposphere, neutralizing gradients et al. what is left is a general tendency for expansion of subtropical ridges, as well as "speghetti logic" characteristic to the flow at higher latitudes by the time July 15 (mid Met summer) arrives. This is of course the standardized model; there are of course exceptions and anomalies relative to that model. This year, "somewhat" of an exception comes in that this entire process is either delayed, but probably delayed more locally. I'm sure there are other places around the hemisphere that have already seasonally relaxed the flow to not have to deal with meanders like this -2.5SD mlv vortex down in VA that will plague the upper MA/NE regions for the week. It doesn't appear that this will last much longer than the next 96 hours off of the 00z guidance, so figure 84 and counting... There is a clear signal for burgeoning southeastern U.S. heights in most operational models, and the one teleconnector that has the better correlation post May 15, the NAO, is neutral or positive by the time we near D7. That also is at least some indication that the latitude of the westerlies will begin lifting as the week ends, and likely lifting out whatever residue of this vortex remains. e My early ideas are that this week is blown - what you see out the window is what you're in for until and through Thursday. The weekend look for daily instability and gully washing Golfer zapping boomers as the core vestigial weakness moves up across our area circa Saturday or Sunday. The general jet structuring will have disappeared by then, and with skies splitting along with somewhat steeper mlv lapse rates working over the top nascient sun-cooked moisture, there should be some CB activity. In fact, the GFS QPF fields shows a convective appeal with light values overnight and exaggerated regional values during the day. We may get the first bona fide summer appeal, with DPs at or greater than 65F and temperatures having potential to make 85F beginning Monday (168 hours) and onwards. Totally agree I wouldn't rule out convective chances this weekend as what's left of the closed low pivots overhead with potentially still a decent cold core making for some fairly steep mid-level lapse rates. With fairly juicy dewpoints and any afternoon heating this should yield to at least weak instability...if the lift is strong enough we would be able to pop up storms during the afternoon. Also, agree with the potential for more summer-like weather once this pattern breaks down but the question is how far north does the actual warm front get and do we get into the true warm sector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 This will be a tough week to get through. The thoughts of swinging from the rafters are coming on strong and its only Monday. 0.82" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Well ... no if ands or buts about it, we have embarked upon what will quite objectively verify as the worst sensible weather week of the entire calendar year (using Jan 1 to Jan 1) for a large part of interior and caostal SNE. It's been feared, and rationalized and discussed, all, over the past 6 weeks. It has finally arrived: a cut-off low that defied physics and was planted quintessentially in a position with utter precision by some demigod that wants to ruin gardens and steal joy in general. Ha ha, I like that... But in all seriousness, it is a wonder it took this long with so many global signals flagging blocking regimes should persist at higher latitudes to unusually late dates. Now of course the natural question is, how long will it last. The teleconnectors are rapidly losing their correlativeness, particularly in the PNA as we get passed May 15. Year to year, the wave lengths shorten every day just a little bit more, as the hemispheric budget in solar irradiance continues to process the hades out of the troposphere, neutralizing gradients et al. what is left is a general tendency for expansion of subtropical ridges, as well as "speghetti logic" characteristic to the flow at higher latitudes by the time July 15 (mid Met summer) arrives. This is of course the standardized model; there are of course exceptions and anomalies relative to that model. This year, "somewhat" of an exception comes in that this entire process is either delayed, but probably delayed more locally. I'm sure there are other places around the hemisphere that have already seasonally relaxed the flow to not have to deal with meanders like this -2.5SD mlv vortex down in VA that will plague the upper MA/NE regions for the week. It doesn't appear that this will last much longer than the next 96 hours off of the 00z guidance, so figure 84 and counting... There is a clear signal for burgeoning southeastern U.S. heights in most operational models, and the one teleconnector that has the better correlation post May 15, the NAO, is neutral or positive by the time we near D7. That also is at least some indication that the latitude of the westerlies will begin lifting as the week ends, and likely lifting out whatever residue of this vortex remains. e My early ideas are that this week is blown - what you see out the window is what you're in for until and through Thursday. The weekend look for daily instability and gully washing Golfer zapping boomers as the core vestigial weakness moves up across our area circa Saturday or Sunday. The general jet structuring will have disappeared by then, and with skies splitting along with somewhat steeper mlv lapse rates working over the top nascient sun-cooked moisture, there should be some CB activity. In fact, the GFS QPF fields shows a convective appeal with light values overnight and exaggerated regional values during the day. We may get the first bona fide summer appeal, with DPs at or greater than 65F and temperatures having potential to make 85F beginning Monday (168 hours) and onwards. Maybe this should be posted in the high dewpoint thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Maybe this should be posted in the high dewpoint thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Totally agree I wouldn't rule out convective chances this weekend as what's left of the closed low pivots overhead with potentially still a decent cold core making for some fairly steep mid-level lapse rates. With fairly juicy dewpoints and any afternoon heating this should yield to at least weak instability...if the lift is strong enough we would be able to pop up storms during the afternoon. Also, agree with the potential for more summer-like weather once this pattern breaks down but the question is how far north does the actual warm front get and do we get into the true warm sector? What you are looking for heading through the weekend and into next week is not really a "warm front" per se - It's more like a filling vortex aloft and slowly rising heights over a region that is almost similar to a "COL" in the surface PP - though somewhat of a SW component would tend. The whole of the atmosphere just neutralizes pretty much unilaterally most gradients N to S across NE, the eastern OV and upper MA, when the on-shore flow is cut off by pattern breakdown. If you want to call that a warm sector...yeah, I guess by default but it isn't really bounded by any baroclinic axis until perhaps middle of next week. But even that may be exaggerated in the Euro - Saturday may be murky hidden toes with down pours underneath them - few splashes of sun revealing. Sunday might have a few more crispy CB photo ops for eastern and central NE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Awesome! I was going to check out the coeds at UMass-Lowell with Tip lol, finals are almost over and there isnt anyone around .. nevermind the 2:1 guy to girl ratio sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 What you are looking for heading through the weekend and into next week is not really a "warm front" per se - It's more like a filling vortex aloft and slowly rising heights over a region that is almost similar to a "COL" in the surface PP - though somewhat of a SW component would tend. The whole of the atmosphere just neutralizes pretty much unilaterally most gradients N to S across NE, the eastern OV and upper MA, when the on-shore flow is cut off by pattern breakdown. If you want to call that a warm sector...yeah, I guess by default but it isn't really bounded by any baroclinic axis until perhaps middle of next week. But even that may be exaggerated in the Euro - I should have clarified, I was talking about mid week as far as the warm front goes and being warm sectored by that, not for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 The sun is out here, lol. Edit: Lasted a grand total of 3 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 49 and a pretty good shower just pulling through. Socked in with fog. The grass hasn't grown too much since I cut it Saturday and maybe it is stunted by these temps. The later week scenario Tip painted will result in a grass explosion again.... The sun is out here, lol. Edit: Lasted a grand total of 3 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 49 and a pretty good shower just pulling through. Socked in with fog. The grass hasn't grown too much since I cut it Saturday and maybe it is stunted by these temps. The later week scenario Tip painted will result in a grass explosion again.... i'm actually regretting putting my cucumbers in because mid 40s will kill them maybe they pull through... The upshot is that they grow super fast so if i have to re-plant this weekend, no big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 High of 70F today? Always hedge toward GFS MOS...NAM's 48F high was on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 High of 70F today? Always hedge toward GFS MOS...NAM's 48F high was on crack. 49 lovely misty degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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