moneypitmike Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 If he is really tough this is what he should run: http://escarpmenttrail.com/ 18 miles along the escarpment trail atop the northeast escarpment of the Catskills and 10,000 feet of elevation change. quote name='moneypitmike' timestamp='1305460497' post='688122'] What half are you running? People should come out to GC and run the Bridge of Flowers 10k in August. Most God-awful hill this side of the Mt. Washington run. www.bridgeofflowers10k.com Nice--Bridge of Flowers is 10k with 1200' of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Looks like a break in the action is on the doorstep. 52.3/51 .43" on the event thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 NAM is an icebox through Wednesday. About as bad as it gets this time of year. NAM MOS (MET) KORH NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/15/2011 1200 UTC DT /MAY 15/MAY 16 /MAY 17 /MAY 18 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 44 47 41 47 45 TMP 60 59 56 54 51 49 46 44 44 44 43 43 43 42 42 43 44 45 43 47 46 DPT 56 54 52 51 50 47 45 44 44 44 42 41 40 39 39 40 41 40 40 43 45 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR 15 13 12 02 01 03 04 06 06 05 05 04 04 04 05 04 05 05 05 05 05 WSP 09 07 06 07 06 09 07 08 08 08 08 08 07 08 06 10 12 11 11 10 08 P06 94 52 42 43 33 48 66 51 49 62 61 P12 79 72 66 73 76 Q06 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 Q12 2 2 2 4 4 T06 30/14 5/ 3 1/ 1 4/ 8 14/19 7/ 3 2/ 2 3/ 9 9/20 3/ 2 T12 30/16 6/ 8 17/19 7/ 9 16/20 SNW 0 0 0 CIG 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 VIS 4 4 4 4 7 7 3 5 4 3 3 3 7 7 4 3 3 3 3 7 4 OBV BR BR BR BR N N BR BR BR BR BR BR N N BR BR BR BR BR N BR Man...that pasted into the code tags like shiat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Close to 70f now. Sitting at 68f at last obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 About as bad as it gets this time of year. NAM MOS (MET) KORH NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/15/2011 1200 UTC DT /MAY 15/MAY 16 /MAY 17 /MAY 18 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 44 47 41 47 45 TMP 60 59 56 54 51 49 46 44 44 44 43 43 43 42 42 43 44 45 43 47 46 DPT 56 54 52 51 50 47 45 44 44 44 42 41 40 39 39 40 41 40 40 43 45 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR 15 13 12 02 01 03 04 06 06 05 05 04 04 04 05 04 05 05 05 05 05 WSP 09 07 06 07 06 09 07 08 08 08 08 08 07 08 06 10 12 11 11 10 08 P06 94 52 42 43 33 48 66 51 49 62 61 P12 79 72 66 73 76 Q06 3 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 Q12 2 2 2 4 4 T06 30/14 5/ 3 1/ 1 4/ 8 14/19 7/ 3 2/ 2 3/ 9 9/20 3/ 2 T12 30/16 6/ 8 17/19 7/ 9 16/20 SNW 0 0 0 CIG 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 2 VIS 4 4 4 4 7 7 3 5 4 3 3 3 7 7 4 3 3 3 3 7 4 OBV BR BR BR BR N N BR BR BR BR BR BR N N BR BR BR BR BR N BR Man...that pasted into the code tags like shiat. Righeous. We actually have a fire going in the living room fireplace. Sitting next to the fire reading "The Girl Who Kicked The Hornet's Nest" as the rain drips down. May as well be cozy if the weather's going to be crappy. 52.9/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I gotta think that NAM is going bonkers and probably are overdoing the cold on MOS but damn.....this reminds me of some of the classic awful mid May periods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 That said...warm is punching in. 60.5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I left and we had .43 so .. i get home and we're sitting at .94..so we had over half of an inch of rain with that deluge..I was out driving in it..Just a trorrential downpour..Very miggy out there today..higer dews FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 NAM is an icebox through Wednesday. The other thing I noticed is that the ULL seems to have drifted northeast over the last 24 hours or so. Basically, it means we might be stuck in the conveyor belt of moisture..or at least be vulnerable to it, instead of having it rip back to the northwest like it did a couple of days ago. I don't know if models will continue this or shove the better moisture to the nw on Tuesday and Wednesday. LOL..you are just in love with that POS model..It's going to bust severely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Absolute downpour right now....don't remember the last time its rained this hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 LOL..you are just in love with that POS model..It's going to bust severely The boundary should get you around midnight. Enjoy the muggies now. I'm in day 2 of 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 The boundary should get you around midnight. Enjoy the muggies now. I'm in day 2 of 50s. Maybe it does. NAM has little to no support..It's almost late May with a + NAO...NAM will lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 LOL..you are just in love with that POS model..It's going to bust severely Just saying what it shows, but I don't think it's out to lunch for ORH-BOS on north..even down to you perhaps. Wednesday is still up in the air for ORH-BOS on north, but I have no confidence on it warming at all. And dews are 55-57 south of the warm front right now. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Maybe it does. NAM has little to no support..It's almost late May with a + NAO...NAM will lose Euro has ne winds ticking your fanny by dawn tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Always good to remember that cold in spring scours out up to 2 days later than progged without a strong fropa from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Looks like a break in the action is on the doorstep. 52.3/51 .43" on the event thus far. Look again. I'm in the Hudson valley right now where it's just drizzle. Hoping for a break this afternoon so I can get 9 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Look at the difference NAM vs GFS MOS! KBOS GFS MOS GUIDANCE 5/15/2011 1200 UTC DT /MAY 15/MAY 16 /MAY 17 /MAY 18 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 52 58 53 64 54 TMP 58 57 56 55 54 54 55 56 55 54 54 54 54 54 57 60 61 60 59 56 57 DPT 54 55 54 53 53 52 53 54 54 54 53 53 54 54 55 57 57 57 56 55 54 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR 10 08 08 05 05 05 05 06 07 07 07 10 08 09 09 09 08 09 09 08 08 WSP 09 09 08 06 05 06 07 07 07 09 07 06 05 06 06 09 10 11 10 08 11 P06 80 97 76 39 27 42 44 60 55 47 54 P12 97 67 75 70 68 Q06 3 3 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 Q12 3 1 2 3 3 T06 15/11 18/ 0 9/ 0 8/ 3 16/14 6/ 0 13/ 0 18/ 1 13/10 10/ 0 T12 18/11 13/ 7 21/14 25/ 4 20/11 POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R SNW 0 0 0 CIG 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 VIS 5 3 3 3 4 4 2 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 2 OBV BR BR BR BR BR BR BR FG BR BR BR FG FG FG FG FG BR BR FG FG FG KBOS NAM MOS GUIDANCE 5/15/2011 1200 UTC DT /MAY 15/MAY 16 /MAY 17 /MAY 18 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 48 50 44 49 46 TMP 59 57 56 54 52 51 50 48 47 46 46 47 46 46 46 47 47 46 46 47 48 DPT 55 55 53 52 49 47 46 46 46 46 45 44 45 44 43 44 45 45 44 45 46 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV WDR 10 09 08 03 02 02 02 04 05 03 03 03 03 03 04 05 03 04 04 05 06 WSP 10 11 09 06 09 11 12 15 14 13 11 10 10 12 12 17 17 18 16 14 10 P06 91 77 49 41 41 65 63 46 53 53 61 P12 85 68 70 71 66 Q06 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 4 3 4 Q12 3 2 2 4 4 T06 23/10 11/ 3 2/ 0 2/ 6 18/11 5/ 2 3/ 1 3/ 5 7/11 3/ 1 T12 24/10 5/ 6 18/11 7/ 5 16/11 SNW 0 0 0 CIG 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 VIS 7 4 3 4 4 5 2 2 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 5 2 OBV N BR BR BR BR BR BR FG BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR FG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Just saying what it shows, but I don't think it's out to lunch for ORH-BOS on north..even down to you perhaps. Wednesday is still up in the air for ORH-BOS on north, but I have no confidence on it warming at all. And dews are 55-57 south of the warm front right now. AWT. I may be dead wrong..I am not and will not buy 3 straight days of 40's and low 50's for all of SNE in mid-late May 60-65 should do it south of Pike Mon-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I may be dead wrong..I am not and will not buy 3 straight days of 40's and low 50's for all of SNE in mid-late May 60-65 should do it south of Pike Mon-Wed. Sounds plausible to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Look at the difference NAM vs GFS MOS! 12z from yesterday had 67F for BOS for tomorrow...now down to 58F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I may be dead wrong..I am not and will not buy 3 straight days of 40's and low 50's for all of SNE in mid-late May 60-65 should do it south of Pike Mon-Wed. I think Monday and Tuesday are the worst days..perhaps even Wednesday up this way. 40s might also be too cold for most of us except perhaps high spots of sw NH and maybe nrn ORH county. Maybe BDL and up to you get to 60 or a little better Wednesday, but who cares if it is 57 and rain or 62 and rain. It just looks crappy and wet. Certainly not fit for outdoor activity which is what most care about this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 And for the record...we've certainly had 50s and disaster right into June, so the mid May argument can certainly be violated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Just started to rain. Looks like a narrow but potent band traversing across SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 And for the record...we've certainly had 50s and disaster right into June, so the mid May argument can certainly be violated. Yeah lol. I think it was something like 6/8/09 or somewhere around there I remember it was like 53F for a high and was stuck in the 40s most of the day with drizzle. Now that's a disaster. Already about an 1" of rain here so far between last night and the downpour today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 12z from yesterday had 67F for BOS for tomorrow...now down to 58F. Yes and that probably will be closer to reality vs the high 40s during the afternoon. Very difficult to justify that with NAM H85s close to +10C and SST around 50. We'd had onshore winds in Boston for the past several days but on none of them did the temps fail to reach the upper 50s or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Yes and that probably will be closer to reality vs the high 40s during the afternoon. Very difficult to justify that with NAM H85s close to +10C and SST around 50. We'd had onshore winds in Boston for the past several days but on none of them did the temps fail to reach the upper 50s or higher. Exactly..where is the support for the cold NAM? There's no cold high..there's no cold SST's..Makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Absolutely pouring right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Wow check out radar..here comes another slug of HEAVY HEAVY rain heading due Northeast..right up me fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Wow check out radar..here comes another slug of HEAVY HEAVY rain heading due Northeast..right up me fanny. vis loop showing some thinning in the southern NJ/Pa area. Don't think it will reach up this way. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 This week looks like an epic disaster for outdoor activities any way you slice it. 49F or 54F or 59F and rain with east winds...awful. At least the rain will be beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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