CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Warm front seems like it wants to straddle the pike area..so we very well may be south of it much of itf not the entire week. NAM is/was crap AWT It will be along the south coast of SNE..and esp near Long Island through Tuesday. After that, it becomes more diffuse, but still some hints of ageostrphic e-ne flow . NAM looks ok to me. The true warm front might not get in here until very late week or weekend, but even then, the low might still be to our south. The airmass will gradually become more humid by mid week, but even then..temps struggling to 60 or low 60s in many places with clouds and fog aren't any better then 55 and drizzle. Areas near the eastern coast of mass and ORH hills will struggle in this pattern. I think Monday and Tuesday will be very chilly for a good part of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Decent slug of precip moving in here now. I like these murky May days. Cool and misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 It will be along the south coast of SNE..and esp near Long Island through Tuesday. After that, it becomes more diffuse, but still some hints of ageostrphic e-ne flow . NAM looks ok to me. The true warm front might not get in here until very late week or weekend, but even then, the low might still be to our south. The airmass will gradually become more humid by mid week, but even then..temps struggling to 60 or low 60s in many places with clouds and fog aren't any better then 55 and drizzle. Areas near the eastern coast of mass and ORH hills will struggle in this pattern. I think Monday and Tuesday will be very chilly for a good part of this area. I think Sunday-Tuesday all make the 60's south of the pike in all areas..Think you're leaning too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Get out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Going to be a weird week with this warm front, I could see it fluctuating from day-to-day...even hour-to-hour at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I think Sunday-Tuesday all make the 60's south of the pike in all areas..Think you're leaning too cold 6z MAV is now NE-ENE at ORH Mon/Tue with temps mainly in the 50s. A lot of upper 40s on the GFS op for S NH/NE MA Monday afternoon.If this was January you'd be saying the colder temps would win out to about IJD. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I think Sunday-Tuesday all make the 60's south of the pike in all areas..Think you're leaning too cold I'm just not that hopeful for Pike area even to you. It's possible the front gets hung up near HFD-PVD briefly tomorrow morning, but I think most areas will be raw tomorrow and Tuesday. Perhaps BDL and points southwest get into the lower 60s, but I don't think it speaks for all areas south of the Pike. Today was never supposed to be cold and raw as the front is still over central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 6z MAV is now NE-ENE at ORH Mon/Tue with temps mainly in the 50s. A lot of upper 40s on the GFS op for S NH/NE MA Monday afternoon. If this was January you'd be saying the colder temps would win out to about IJD. lol Yeah GFS finally came out of tropical mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Whopping 0.12" overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 6z MAV is now NE-ENE at ORH Mon/Tue with temps mainly in the 50s. A lot of upper 40s on the GFS op for S NH/NE MA Monday afternoon. If this was January you'd be saying the colder temps would win out to about IJD. lol We'll see..Maybe I'm wrong..It's May though and the NAO is poitive..the ull is well sw..I just do't see any mechanism for locking in 3-5 days of clouds and 40's and 50's..Flow is SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 We'll see..Maybe I'm wrong..It's May though and the NAO is poitive..the ull is well sw..I just do't see any mechanism for locking in 3-5 days of clouds and 40's and 50's..Flow is SE I think it has to do more with the sfc low that develops...ye sit is too our west but it's very close to our region and it really doesn't lift all too far north and it becomes somewhat occluded. There really is no mechanism to force the warm front to lift northward and as the system becomes occluded the warm front kind of diffuses some which weakens it and further decreases the chances of it lifting any further northward than its current position. The only thing that it does is just act as a boundary which could be a focal point for increased shower/rain development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 Sun might show up Saturday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 We'll see..Maybe I'm wrong..It's May though and the NAO is poitive..the ull is well sw..I just do't see any mechanism for locking in 3-5 days of clouds and 40's and 50's..Flow is SE 40s might be too cold except for higher spots in sw NH, and I don't see 5 straight days of 50s for everyone. Tomorrow and Tuesday the worst, and then maybe lower 60s..perhaps mid 60s for your area later in the week. Maybe even near me if flow can turn more southerly, but any erly flow this time of year and clouds to go along with it will probably cause temps to struggle to near 60 over the coast and even ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Scott, Are you at work? Do you have access to the current lightning map? The free lightning map didn't update at 9:20 AM. Is there still a decent amount of lightning with that batch of elevated storms about to hit me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Scott, Are you at work? Do you have access to the current lightning map? The free lightning map didn't update at 9:20 AM. Is there still a decent amount of lightning with that batch of elevated storms about to hit me? Just two recent strikes sw of Danbury and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Just two recent strikes sw of Danbury and that's it. Damn it, so it weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 It just updated, went from white to yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Well in two weeks my friend from NH will be coming down for a few weeks, hopefully within those two weeks we get some severe wx chances so we can go around chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 It just updated, went from white to yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 If he is really tough this is what he should run: http://escarpmenttrail.com/ 18 miles along the escarpment trail atop the northeast escarpment of the Catskills and 10,000 feet of elevation change. quote name='moneypitmike' timestamp='1305460497' post='688122'] What half are you running? People should come out to GC and run the Bridge of Flowers 10k in August. Most God-awful hill this side of the Mt. Washington run. www.bridgeofflowers10k.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 my dads on his way home frm a motorcvcle run he did this weekend good time for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 just had thunder here wiz!! Pouring out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 No thunder here...just pouring... We have already far exceeded model qpf. Hopefully all this junk goes north of us soon. 55F. just had thunder here wiz!! Pouring out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 just had thunder here wiz!! Pouring out! Someone call 911 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 15, 2011 Author Share Posted May 15, 2011 just had thunder here wiz!! Pouring out! Nice radar returns out your way. Six Flags must be a mess today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 close strike whole house just shook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 just had thunder here wiz!! Pouring out! Nice! I was afraid something like that was going to happen here when I was in the shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 NAM is an icebox through Wednesday. The other thing I noticed is that the ULL seems to have drifted northeast over the last 24 hours or so. Basically, it means we might be stuck in the conveyor belt of moisture..or at least be vulnerable to it, instead of having it rip back to the northwest like it did a couple of days ago. I don't know if models will continue this or shove the better moisture to the nw on Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 close strike whole house just shook! Here's your lightning strike lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Not too shabby out there right now. Breaks in the clouds, warm, a little humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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