CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Yeah to me it looks like the GFS lifts the warm front well north of us and concentrates the heaviest rain right upon the boundary in Upstate NY/NNE...we don't end up getting that much +RA. Maybe just scattered/thunderstorms or showers. Of course the GFS has a million more rainstorms coming but who knows about its LR. It all depends on where that front and plume setup and interact. To me, this does look like quite the rain event for NY state and perhaps down to PA and NJ..perhaps NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Yeah I could see that. It looks like the ULL almost retros a bit, giving credit to those high rises you explained which would push the plume over areas like PA and NY state. However, there are hints of a weak subtle front stalling south of SNE on the EC ensembles despite the overall se flow. HPC kind of hints at this in their daily progs. Any PWAT plume interacting with that would probably yield more rain. Something to watch anyways. Those subtropical plumes are a pain to forecast, but you can double and sometimes triple the model QPF in those. Could also be sheet drizzle/rain with a MQE special perhaps. But if that ULL moves west a bit, the heavier rain does as well. yep. always seems to go that way. when you start seeing guidance qpf of 3 to 5" run after run..time for ginx to call on the national guard. it'll be interesting one way or the other, which is good. someone gets smoked whether it's in new england or NY/PA/NJ or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 It all depends on where that front and plume setup and interact. To me, this does look like quite the rain event for NY state and perhaps down to PA and NJ..perhaps NYC area. Can you see the 12z Euro yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 yep. always seems to go that way. when you start seeing guidance qpf of 3 to 5" run after run..time for ginx to call on the national guard. it'll be interesting one way or the other, which is good. someone gets smoked whether it's in new england or NY/PA/NJ or both. Canadian is pretty heavy for most of SNE and down through PA and NJ. Nice bullseye over se NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Can you see the 12z Euro yet? Through hr 102 I see 1-2" of total QPF for you with 2-3" for parts of SNE from ne CT through the ORH-BOS areas. Plume has shifted to DC and PHL up through NJ at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Canadian is pretty heavy for most of SNE and down through PA and NJ. Nice bullseye over se NY state. 00z was pretty healthy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Through hr 102 I see 1-2" of total QPF for you with 2-3" for parts of SNE from ne CT through the ORH-BOS areas. Plume has shifted to DC and PHL up through NJ at this point. 1-2" over 5 days isn't going to do much for flooding/water concerns here...ground can absorb a lot of rain now with the lush vegetation and recent dryness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 1-2" over 5 days isn't going to do much for flooding/water concerns here...ground can absorb a lot of rain now with the lush vegetation and recent dryness. for some of the areas in question, the modeled qpf will likely end up as a useful tool. but for parts of the eastern seaboard - not sure where - most likely somewhere from W SNE sw to the MA, the numbers will be woefully underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Pretty good height rises on Wednesday, but looks like lots of light rain and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Wonder if it's one of those things where we get +RA then a break for a day or two, followed by more heavier rain as the ULL tries to lift northeast. In between, cars idling in the garage with CO building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Pretty good height rises on Wednesday, but looks like lots of light rain and drizzle. yeah just perpetual light measurable stuff there. wonder if that's the kind of deal where the upslope flow into the hills transforms what looks like crap modeled qpf into much more notable #s. sort of like what you were talking about earlier with the mqe special where that sheet drizzle ends up dumping big #s...but just maybe in a different location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 72 and sunny and still rising. Forecasts of mid/upper 60s FTL...might hit 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Wonder if it's one of those things where we get +RA then a break for a day or two, followed by more heavier rain as the ULL tries to lift northeast. In between, cars idling in the garage with CO building. that's what the euro would suggest. good slug early in the week then round 2 later on...with that ugly low level stuff sandwiched in between. it's amazing though...there's just no kicker on this thing. it just sits and rots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 yeah just perpetual light measurable stuff there. wonder if that's the kind of deal where the upslope flow into the hills transforms what looks like crap modeled qpf into much more notable #s. sort of like what you were talking about earlier with the mqe special where that sheet drizzle ends up dumping big #s...but just maybe in a different location. Yeah perhaps. Maybe Berks or something like that. There's almost a constant trowal overhead at 700mb, which will aid in the sheet rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 that's what the euro would suggest. good slug early in the week then round 2 later on...with that ugly low level stuff sandwiched in between. it's amazing though...there's just no kicker on this thing. it just sits and rots. LOL, that's nuts. It doesn't move for days. At least the rest of the EC from DC on up get to share in the misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Yeah perhaps. Maybe Berks or something like that. There's almost a constant trowal overhead at 700mb, which will aid in the sheet rain. you can kind of picture in your head what the radar would like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 man what an ugly stretch that is on the euro...and things just get worse at week's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 About 73 and sunny here light breeze my final full day in maine balling up outside covered in black flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 Too bad we couldn't have gotten a setup like this during Feb or March Feet and feet of snow over several days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 well 12z euro has 3-4" falling over all of SNE next week. does take all week to get to those numbers as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Too bad we couldn't have gotten a setup like this during Feb or March Feet and feet of snow over several days... always tough to make those kind of comparisons...but this set-up in the winter would piss us all off, i think. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 yeah just perpetual light measurable stuff there. wonder if that's the kind of deal where the upslope flow into the hills transforms what looks like crap modeled qpf into much more notable #s. sort of like what you were talking about earlier with the mqe special where that sheet drizzle ends up dumping big #s...but just maybe in a different location. Disaster. I can see like 24h .25-.50 of qpf here turning into 1.5" of heavy sheet drizzle mixed in with heavier burst of rain. The heavy sheet drizzle is the type of stuff that gives you 0.08" of measurable per hour even though its not showing up that well on radar. Esp with the E wind here. It will be interesting to see how much ends up falling assuming the setup remains fairly consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 I contacted the euro and told it to change, so tonight at 00z its going to put a repeat of today for the next week. 73 and sunny. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 always tough to make those kind of comparisons...but this set-up in the winter would piss us all off, i think. LOL. Probably a Ray-suicide watch special... day after day of 37F and cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Probably a Ray-suicide watch special... day after day of 37F and cold rain In the winter it would all stay south of us I think with that setup. The lack of baroclinicity this time of year lets everything drift north without much tight compact cutoffs from thermal gradients. It would be either that or the 72h setup would wrap up much more and rip a low up Logan11's fanny and we'd get a drenching southeaster. Always tough to compare a May setup to winter anyway since the dynamical forces tend to be so different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Disaster. I can see like 24h .25-.50 of qpf here turning into 1.5" of heavy sheet drizzle mixed in with heavier burst of rain. The heavy sheet drizzle is the type of stuff that gives you 0.08" of measurable per hour even though its not showing up that well on radar. Esp with the E wind here. It will be interesting to see how much ends up falling assuming the setup remains fairly consistent. yeah not unlike the winter really when you see those feeble 10-20dbz returns running into the hills but it's coming down 3/4 to 1/2mi type stuff. that's a pretty awful run. the flow bends so much the wind actually ends up backing to the east again instead of being more SSE...then that big HP comes down and tightens everything up and you get a howling E wind and downpours. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Today made it to 70F here. Best day since the beginning of the month by far. Eating dinner outside this evening...we shall savor it as its likely the last chance for a week or more. Though tomorrow could be decent if we avoid the showers until nightfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 12z Euro is perfect through D10. Generally cloudy, breezy, cool weather with occasional rain, 50s and 60s. Isn't that ideal for Mid May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 65F. Gorgeous day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 Today made it to 70F here. Best day since the beginning of the month by far. Eating dinner outside this evening...we shall savor it as its likely the last chance for a week or more. Though tomorrow could be decent if we avoid the showers until nightfall. Hopefully you have a screen porch or that the blackflies avoid ORH They are awful here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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