CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Yeah that seems to be the set-up right now. GFS Ensembles have some 2-3SD's in there regarding PWAT and 950 and 850 V wind anomalies which isn't too bad this far out, but they also aren't focusing the front to our south at all. I wish the EC ensembles have something like that...or at least that I could see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 GFS Ensembles have some 2-3SD's in there regarding PWAT and 950 and 850 V wind anomalies which isn't too bad this far out, but they also aren't focusing the front to our south at all. I wish the EC ensembles have something like that...or at least that I could see them. GFS still muggy look to it..while Euro cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 GFS still muggy look to it..while Euro cool? Euro would turn more muggy later in the week, but nothing oppressive given wind direction. GFS is straight up muggy the whole time. My guess is that it would gradually turn more humid by mid to late week, but I'm not sure about swamp azz stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Cooled off to 37F this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 56 mostly sunny forecast for sun and 68 today, this weather blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 56 mostly sunny forecast for sun and 68 today, this weather blows. Today is the nicest day since last Saturday. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 56 mostly sunny forecast for sun and 68 today, this weather blows. Overcast here at 53F but should burn off later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Finally a sweet day, too bad it's a fookin work day, golf anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Any low water level concerns look to be off the board. Taking bets on when Kev issues drought advisory because of one dry well in a log cabin in Tolland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 Finally a sweet day, too bad it's a fookin work day, golf anyone? Two really nice days in a row up here in N ORH county. I do like the cooler air unlike a lot of other folks. Even the cloudiness and showers that had been prevelant (and will return) are fine by me. The longer we can hold off the swamp azz the better. High so far this season has been 75F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Any low water level concerns look to be off the board. Taking bets on when Kev issues drought advisory because of one dry well in a log cabin in Tolland County. I noticed water tables seem low, but reservoirs look just fine. Like you said, after this week...should be no concerns at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 56 mostly sunny forecast for sun and 68 today, this weather blows. you need a new act. this one is getting old. LOL. nice out here finally today. pretty much 100% sunshine so far...first time since last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 you need a new act. this one is getting old. LOL. nice out here finally today. pretty much 100% sunshine so far...first time since last weekend. Finally in the low 60s here, but feels like 70 with the sun and light winds. Soaking it up, before exhaust pipe season continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Finally in the low 60s here, but feels like 70 with the sun and light winds. Soaking it up, before exhaust pipe season continues. next week is tough. i feel pretty confident for some good rains sometime in the sunday PM/monday period. after that...i have much lower confidence in how things play out. i could see it cloudy and pretty damp for a really long stretch but i could also see something where part of the area (eastern spots?) ends up "OK" from tue-thur with a much worse/flooding situation centered west of us. 5h heights actually rise there as ridging kind of pumps westward as that ULL digs and cut-offs. there's also pretty strong/strengthening surface HP centered east of NS in that same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 Some pretty high temps out this way as per PD Family mesonet site. Gardner at 77F, Lunenburg at 78F BOX basically had around 70F for a lot of the area. Blizz FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Some pretty high temps out this way as per PD Family mesonet site. Gardner at 77F, Lunenburg at 78F BOX basically had around 70F for a lot of the area. Blizz FTW? Not solar shielded. The ASOS stations are running a lot lower. That problem can often come up in the summer season when you have a sunny day. Still the best day of the week by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 HPC calling for Arks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 HPC calling for Arks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 Not solar shielded. The ASOS stations are running a lot lower. That problem can often come up in the summer season when you have a sunny day. Still the best day of the week by a long shot. Is there a way to tell if they are by the wunderground link? For example the Gardner site on PDFamily says it has hardware type WS2310 which is a LaCrosse system that lists an IR shroud for the temp unit. Not good enough? One of my thermometers on my deck is not solar shaded and gets insane readings on a day like today (probably at 95-110F attm) when the other one, that is well shaded is at 68 or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 many, many games cancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Nice ... 12-18 with lollies of 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 It's been a while since we had a nonstop deluge... Last spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 next week is tough. i feel pretty confident for some good rains sometime in the sunday PM/monday period. after that...i have much lower confidence in how things play out. i could see it cloudy and pretty damp for a really long stretch but i could also see something where part of the area (eastern spots?) ends up "OK" from tue-thur with a much worse/flooding situation centered west of us. 5h heights actually rise there as ridging kind of pumps westward as that ULL digs and cut-offs. there's also pretty strong/strengthening surface HP centered east of NS in that same period. Yeah I could see that. It looks like the ULL almost retros a bit, giving credit to those high rises you explained which would push the plume over areas like PA and NY state. However, there are hints of a weak subtle front stalling south of SNE on the EC ensembles despite the overall se flow. HPC kind of hints at this in their daily progs. Any PWAT plume interacting with that would probably yield more rain. Something to watch anyways. Those subtropical plumes are a pain to forecast, but you can double and sometimes triple the model QPF in those. Could also be sheet drizzle/rain with a MQE special perhaps. But if that ULL moves west a bit, the heavier rain does as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Yeah I could see that. It looks like the ULL almost retros a bit, giving credit to those high rises you explained which would push the plume over areas like PA and NY state. However, there are hints of a weak subtle front stalling south of SNE on the EC ensembles despite the overall se flow. HPC kind of hints at this in their daily progs. Any PWAT plume interacting with that would probably yield more rain. Something to watch anyways. Those subtropical plumes are a pain to forecast, but you can double and sometimes triple the model QPF in those. Could also be sheet drizzle/rain with a MQE special perhaps. But if that ULL moves west a bit, the heavier rain does as well. Isn't the HPC precip likely overdone with the surface low originally tracking west of us? I am always suspicious of warm-sector scenarios delivering the epic QPF totals. GFS also hasn't been nearly as heavy with the rains which makes me wonder if we're going to see the biblical flood verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 GFS is swamp azz material still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Isn't the HPC precip likely overdone with the surface low originally tracking west of us? I am always suspicious of warm-sector scenarios delivering the epic QPF totals. GFS also hasn't been nearly as heavy with the rains which makes me wonder if we're going to see the biblical flood verify. It depends on where the front stalls. GFS had no real focus mechanism..just a pure tropical plume of moisture. The euro is heavier with the rain thanks to isentropic lift from the front stalled just off the south coast. We (especially me) would not be warm sectored on the euro until maybe mid week or so. The GFS keeps us in the warm sector which would be clouds and ocnl shwrs. It might be some sort of a compromise perhaps..who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Isn't the HPC precip likely overdone with the surface low originally tracking west of us? I am always suspicious of warm-sector scenarios delivering the epic QPF totals. GFS also hasn't been nearly as heavy with the rains which makes me wonder if we're going to see the biblical flood verify. imo, i don't think they are really overdone. *perhaps* in the widespread nature of the excessive totals but i don't think the 10" amounts they reference in their disco will be impossible at all. there should be a lot of bands oriented in such a manner to promote training and it's a pretty high pwat atmosphere by the time we get into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 It depends on where the front stalls. GFS had no real focus mechanism..just a pure tropical plume of moisture. The euro is heavier with the rain thanks to isentropic lift from the front stalled just off the south coast. We (especially me) would not be warm sectored on the euro until maybe mid week or so. The GFS keeps us in the warm sector which would be clouds and ocnl shwrs. It might be some sort of a compromise perhaps..who knows. Yeah to me it looks like the GFS lifts the warm front well north of us and concentrates the heaviest rain right upon the boundary in Upstate NY/NNE...we don't end up getting that much +RA. Maybe just scattered/thunderstorms or showers. Of course the GFS has a million more rainstorms coming but who knows about its LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 imo, i don't think they are really overdone. *perhaps* in the widespread nature of the excessive totals but i don't think the 10" amounts they reference in their disco will be impossible at all. there should be a lot of bands oriented in such a manner to promote training and it's a pretty high pwat atmosphere by the time we get into next week. Yeah and throw in some se upslope flow of the mtns from MD through NY state and it could easily happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Hopefully the flooding hits Western NE the hardest. It has been a long time since they've had a great flood event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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