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SNE May-hem


HoarfrostHubb

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I don't think next week will be a washout or 50s all week. But I think the GFS MOS is far too warm and we're going to see lots of clouds, 2 days of heavy rain possibly, and muggy mid 60s. At least that's what I'm forecasting.

there has to be some dry periods in there...but man that is an ugly ugly look.

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I don't think next week will be a washout or 50s all week. But I think the GFS MOS is far too warm and we're going to see lots of clouds, 2 days of heavy rain possibly, and muggy mid 60s. At least that's what I'm forecasting.

Agreed. just a muggy, showery week. Though i wouldn't be shocked if a day we truly warm sectored.

I don't think anyone sees east flow and 50-55 for days like the Euro has. That would lead some folks to start sticking fingers into sockets

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Agreed. just a muggy, showery week. Though i wouldn't be shocked if a day we truly warm sectored.

I don't think anyone sees east flow and 50-55 for days like the Euro has. That would lead some folks to start sticking fingers into sockets

This isn't going to be a warm sector storm cutting to our west setup. There will be a stalled front near or west of us with a deep and long lives SE flow bringing in lots of rain.

So yeah probably overnight lows in the 50s highs in the 60s.

It is possible... though... depending on how the ULL evolves we get that front to sag south with high pressure nosing in from the NE which would be an epic disaster with like a 52F day and heavy rain with stiff NE winds.

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With an ULL in that position and a crazy-blocked pattern it's solution makes sense. Not to mention the fact it's a classic flood setup for SNE.

yeah high pwat air coming up from the subtropics then running up and over that boundary. red flag is basin-wide totals of 3+ over the next week.

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This isn't going to be a warm sector storm cutting to our west setup. There will be a stalled front near or west of us with a deep and long lives SE flow bringing in lots of rain.

So yeah probably overnight lows in the 50s highs in the 60s.

It is possible... though... depending on how the ULL evolves we get that front to sag south with high pressure nosing in from the NE which would be an epic disaster with like a 52F day and heavy rain with stiff NE winds.

Some folks would enjoy that..as unlikely as it is. I could see MRG and Will enjoying a week like that.

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yeah high pwat air coming up from the subtropics then running up and over that boundary. red flag is basin-wide totals of 3+ over the next week.

A stalled ULL for 5 days southwest of us always raises the red flag. It's normally a narrow area of +RA too. Sometimes you get like 7" of rain in a week in the Poconos and just showers and humidity in SNE.

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Beats 68/64, cloudy and gross wx. Throw on a sweatshirt and your comfortable. How can you be comfortable with dps in the upper 60s? You can't.

To be honest I'd prefer a day of 4" of rain, some thunder, and 50F to off and on showers and 65 and humid.

I do like gloomy heavy rain days every once in a while.

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A stalled ULL for 5 days southwest of us always raises the red flag. It's normally a narrow area of +RA too. Sometimes you get like 7" of rain in a week in the Poconos and just showers and humidity in SNE.

yep exactly. wouldn't count on huge area wide totals. just saying that seeing guidance pump out such big numbers over a large area shows its seeing the potential. seems like everytime we have a big qpf event progged like that you can take the highest modeled qpf and then like double or triple it to get the actual highest spot IMBY total.

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