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SNE May-hem

HoarfrostHubb

By HoarfrostHubb,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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there is a little pocket of clearing on vis. sat rotating SSW from central coastal ME. maybe some breaks/thinning of the overcast later today for eastern areas?

cool looking satellite shot this morning regardless with the dual low centers pivoting around each other offshore. you can see the different dynamics at work with each low center. pretty neat.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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`

there is a little pocket of clearing on vis. sat rotating SSW from central coastal ME. maybe some breaks/thinning of the overcast later today for eastern areas?

cool looking satellite shot this morning regardless with the dual low centers pivoting around each other offshore. you can see the different dynamics at work with each low center. pretty neat.

Yeah really cool. It would be one hell of a stormy day if that low were another 250 miles west.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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At least it would be interesting.

Spring sux

Agreed. Phil and I have a wind/coastal fetish, but it would definitely make for more interesting wx.

Th euro ensembles look classic for a +RA event. You have an ULL to the southwest with ridging off to the northeast, helping to keep the front to the south as high Andy PWAT air overrides the front. It is possible that we have something in the middle...basically maybe a 24 hr rain event, followed by moist srly flow with heavier rain well to the west. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Agreed. Phil and I have a wind/coastal fetish, but it would definitely make for more interesting wx.

Th euro ensembles look classic for a +RA event. You have an ULL to the southwest with ridging off to the northeast, helping to keep the front to the south as high Andy PWAT air overrides the front. It is possible that we have something in the middle...basically maybe a 24 hr rain event, followed by moist srly flow with heavier rain well to the west. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

You have to commit to marine meteorology as an interest envelope when you are within the tentacles of the ocean. It's just too deterministic on one's weather variety to hope for much of anything else; and, developing a coastal wind and/or wave action related flood "fetish" is more like turning to the only plight you've got BECAUSE the ocean will offer so little alternate entertainment/fascination value.

There are probably a lot of ways to define and explore that psychology, but we will find that way more than some 50% of the time the region of the country will populate with weather enthusiasts who are interested in the weather that typically takes place there. Folks in the Plains are more like interested in twisters. Folks along the EC and Gulf...it's gotta be Nor'easters and hurricanes. Of coures, there is/are lap-over interest areas. Here in SNE, snow geese tend to nest.

*****

The canvas is certainly there for the rains but there seems to lack a synoptic scale trigger. That ULL is - also in my opinion - over done in that it is too rare to have a -3.5SD over that region of the deep S/SE to outright presume that is accurate. I'd like to see that! In any event, even if so ... it then fills and retrogrades as the deep layer ridging NE of us is slipping E, and that is relaxing the jet fields et al. That's the overall trigger lacking - that very behavior. With that said, still...you don't like to see a 2,000 mile long SE gradient moving toward the Coast - that's like Russian Roulettes. we'll have to see.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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You have to commit to marine meteorology as an interest envelope when you are within the tentacles of the ocean. It's just too deterministic on one's weather variety to hope for much of anything else; and, developing a coastal wind and/or wave action related flood "fetish" is more like turning to the only plight you've got BECAUSE the ocean will offer so little alternate entertainment/fascination value.

There are probably a lot of ways to define and explore that psychology, but we will find that way more than some 50% of the time the region of the country will populate with weather enthusiasts who are interested in the weather that typically takes place there. Folks in the Plains are more like interested in twisters. Folks along the EC and Gulf...it's gotta be Nor'easters and hurricanes. Of coures, there is/are lap-over interest areas. Here in SNE, snow geese tend to nest.

*****

The canvas is certainly there for the rains but there seems to lack a synoptic scale trigger. That ULL is - also in my opinion - over done in that it is too rare to have a -3.5SD over that region of the deep S/SE to outright presume that is accurate. I'd like to see that! In any event, even if so ... it then fills and retrogrades as the deep layer ridging NE of us is slipping E, and that is relaxing the jet fields et al. That's the overall trigger lacking - that very behavior. With that said, still...you don't like to see a 2,000 mile long SE gradient moving toward the Coast - that's like Russian Roulettes. we'll have to see.

It seems though we don't need significant jet dynamics to get the heavier rains. I do agree that a deep ULL is need to grab significant PWAT air from the sub tropics and rip it on north. The mother's day flood was interesting in that it had a nice 850ish or so jet pumping in very warm and moist air, but also an e-ne LLJ that also focused convergence in the low levels over eastern and especially ne mass. Coastal frontogenesis in a way. Indeed this setup might be too aggressive on the euro, but it's interesting to look at. I don't have any feelings either way, but just from a met standpoint.

As far a marine meteorology, I do find nor'easters interesting. I love a good tstm, but lets face it...this is SNE. I think it's eastern areas of SNE that tend to have more dynamic wx from coastal storm impacts..whether it be due to coastal fronts, deformation, or S+ being whipped around by 40+kt winds. To me, seeing snow whipped around and drifting beats getting an extra inch or two of fluff in the interior due to ratios, but again..it is all subjective.Obviously, the interior averages more snow, but I'm talking more in the way of a single event where Ray gets 13" and I get 11" or something like that.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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after 6 of the most beautiful days imaginable in a row here, we finally have an overcast day with a stiff ne breeze, hoping it clears later today, but we really need some rain.

forget it--back door fronts almost always under-deliver around here....when I walk down my drivway, there are footprints within the green pollen...LOL

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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after 6 of the most beautiful days imaginable in a row here, we finally have an overcast day with a stiff ne breeze, hoping it clears later today, but we really need some rain.

If there is any justice ... you'll sock in while the rest of us clear, and stays that way for at least a week ;)

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html

our west atlantic spring killer has two centers doing a Fuji Wara - fascinating.

yeah we were commenting on that earlier - pretty cool stuff.

looks like enough dry air mixing in now in Maine to really break apart the cloud deck offshore..."clearing" line making decent progress SSW...

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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If there is any justice ... you'll sock in while the rest of us clear, and stays that way for at least a week ;)

Very true tippy, we have been very lucky down this way!

A few specks of blue showing up now, looks like it should be a decent afternoon.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Very true tippy, we have been very lucky down this way!

A few specks of blue showing up now, looks like it should be a decent afternoon.

Actually...I don't really spite you for it - just yankin' some chainage.

I don't think it is unusual, though, to have you folks be out of the schits while say east of a EEN-HFD line be stuck in it when it comes to spring 'round deez parts. "Spring" is more of a state of mind at times in SNE - haha. I have seen years go from mock winter right into a blazing summer. 2005 rings a bell that way. The entire month of May (as I have painfully lamented upon too many times) that year pretty much did not exist... 45F BY DAY , over 40F at night, with 4 consecutive gales intermissioned by raw breezes and drizzle gobbled up the entire month ...right into the first 3 or 4 days of June that year. Then, on June 6, the west Atlantic retrofitting gyre finally lifted out, and the skies parted, and the temp soared some 50F over a 2 days span. I don't think the summer was appreciably hot, however. Anyway, it was in the mid 90s or better with 70F DPs by the 10th of June.

Year to year the odds of seeing BED in a dreary dismal atmospheric anal hole, while daffidils and girls in Dazy Dukes romp around the CT River valley at least 2wice in a spring are pretty high. It just comes wtih the price tag. Can't have it both ways. You get your winters, you pay for it in the spring. I wouldn't trade it, honestly... As bad as spring can sometimes be here, 3 months of dead earth and no snow is much worse!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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yeah we were commenting on that earlier - pretty cool stuff.

looks like enough dry air mixing in now in Maine to really break apart the cloud deck offshore..."clearing" line making decent progress SSW...

HA HAaaa... You know your in the bear's den when the clearing has to come from the Ocean!

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