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SNE May-hem


HoarfrostHubb

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funny how the weather works. half of the region socked in with clouds, some drizzle, strong winds and cool temps but half the region enjoying terrific spring weather.

rafters weather for the eastern half of the region...AMOUT.

It was dam windy last night.

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It was dam windy last night.

yeah it started to howl pretty good after 10PM or so IMBY. few more pulses to go in the next 36 to 48 hours...looks like there's a little pocket of vorticity that rotates around the parent ULL tomorrow that actually tightens things up again. you can see the llj weaken today that come back tomorrow PM.

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yeah it started to howl pretty good after 10PM or so IMBY. few more pulses to go in the next 36 to 48 hours...looks like there's a little pocket of vorticity that rotates around the parent ULL tomorrow that actually tightens things up again. you can see the llj weaken today that come back tomorrow PM.

Yeah neat to see the LLJ increase as the dynamics pass through. I do wish we got some rain out of this, but perhaps the next cutoff down the road is a little more moist.

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Yeah neat to see the LLJ increase as the dynamics pass through. I do wish we got some rain out of this, but perhaps the next cutoff down the road is a little more moist.

That one next week might be worse for those of us in Central and Western SNE while you guys out east aren't as wet. Looks muggy as we get into next week

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That one next week might be worse for those of us in Central and Western SNE while you guys out east aren't as wet. Looks muggy as we get into next week

These cutoffs that are well se never work out unless you get into the deformation band. It's wrapping in a lot of dry air and the wind off the water isn't exactly moisture loaded since sst's are low. We really need one of those cutoffs that spin to our sw and have a weak wave or more like a stationary boundary south of SNE where the WCB can overrun the low level northeast flow. AKA May 2006. That's how we get the good rains.

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These cutoffs that are well se never work out unless you get into the deformation band. It's wrapping in a lot of dry air and the wind off the water isn't exactly moisture loaded since sst's are low. We really need one of those cutoffs that spin to our sw and have a weak wave or more like a stationary boundary south of SNE where the WCB can overrun the low level northeast flow. AKA May 2006. That's how we get the good rains.

If we can get the thing to cutoff over the Lakes like many runs of the Euro have been showing..we'd have a nice sw flow..high dews, high precipitable water values..and we'd get some nice tropical like rains and maybe even some thunder. What we don't really want is the warm front to stall south of us with cool, overrunning, boring rains that would end up mostly over NNE eventually even though models would insist it would be farther south

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These cutoffs that are well se never work out unless you get into the deformation band. It's wrapping in a lot of dry air and the wind off the water isn't exactly moisture loaded since sst's are low. We really need one of those cutoffs that spin to our sw and have a weak wave or more like a stationary boundary south of SNE where the WCB can overrun the low level northeast flow. AKA May 2006. That's how we get the good rains.

you know what the ultimate kick in the nads would be...if this cut-off leaves behind a marine layer/stratus deck over the GOM friday / saturday and that backdoor front drops through and pushes it onshore. LOL.

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you know what the ultimate kick in the nads would be...if this cut-off leaves behind a marine layer/stratus deck over the GOM friday / saturday and that backdoor front drops through and pushes it onshore. LOL.

LOL, I saw the potential for at least sea breeze stuff along the coast. Hopefully with building heights, high pressure nearby and lack of moist srly flow aloft, we can keep any disaster to our east.

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If we can get the thing to cutoff over the Lakes like many runs of the Euro have been showing..we'd have a nice sw flow..high dews, high precipitable water values..and we'd get some nice tropical like rains and maybe even some thunder. What we don't really want is the warm front to stall south of us with cool, overrunning, boring rains that would end up mostly over NNE eventually even though models would insist it would be farther south

Well May 2006 absolutely soaked the areas of ern mass and up into NH and southern ME. That was an amazing storm as it flooded the Merrimack past the 100yr mark. Anomalous events like that impress me. I don't have a flood fetish, but 15-20" of rain in a week is unprecedented. We had another 3-5" in a June nor'easter too.

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good thing is you look at the 500mb heights toward the end of this morning's gfs runs and you can see spring letting go and summer on the horizon. starts with a series of omega blocks but by the end the flow is all fooked up and ugly but you can tell that the cut-off season is nearing its end.

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Well May 2006 absolutely soaked the areas of ern mass and up into NH and southern ME. That was an amazing storm as it flooded the Merrimack past the 100yr mark. Anomalous events like that impress me. I don't have a flood fetish, but 15-20" of rain in a week is unprecedented. We had another 3-5" in a June nor'easter too.

Well we don;t want a noreaster..We want warm, tropical rains as opposed to cool overunning events with easterly flow.

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good thing is you look at the 500mb heights toward the end of this morning's gfs runs and you can see spring letting go and summer on the horizon. starts with a series of omega blocks but by the end the flow is all fooked up and ugly but you can tell that the cut-off season is nearing its end.

Yeah the end of the runs really warm up in general. Obviously details to be determined, but it looks warmer for sure. +NAO with a -PNA and a heat ridge in the midwest.

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Well we don;t want a noreaster..We want warm, tropical rains as opposed to cool overunning events with easterly flow.

Well warm tropical rains don't really happen much around here during this time of year, but I know what you mean. I'm all set with swamp azz in May, however.

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Well warm tropical rains don't really happen much around here during this time of year, but I know what you mean. I'm all set with swamp azz in May, however.

I'd rather be sweating with ballz stuck to chair and high dews in May than a cool rainy 52 degree day.or endless string of days like that ..the kinds of days you guys out east will have Monday-Thursday this week..while Ryan rides horseback in azzless chaps in the valley this week

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I'd rather be sweating with ballz stuck to chair and high dews in May than a cool rainy 52 degree day.or endless string of days like that ..the kinds of days you guys out east will have Monday-Thursday this week..while Ryan rides horseback in azzless chaps in the valley this week

LOL, well I hate these days as well. 70-75 this time of year is great.

One interesting thing that we are seeing is a push to MJO phase 8 and phase 1. Nina might take a bit of a hit with this, but models do weaken it going into the summer.

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