May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion

[Dark Energy]

The NAO block has been consistently less impressive/less persistent than modeled since the January 12th Miller B snowstorm. We've heard a lot about the return of the -NAO, but it hasn't really come to fruition except for the 3/24 period, especially against expectations given what transpired in Winter 09-10, December '10, and the various prognostications of the models showing a strongly dipping NAO index. It seems that the index is generally averaging quite positive with a mean trough located over Baffin Island/western Greenland; the only departures from this pattern have been short-lived and also east-based North Atlantic ridges. The GFS severely overestimated the strength of the blocking for early May; instead of a crummy week with highs in the 40s, we got one cool afternoon surrounded by glorious days in the 70F range. The lack of a sustained NAO verifying has meant that the SE ridge has been able to build farther north; April was +1.8F at Central Park and May is running at only -0.1F through today despite all the conversations about "cut-off lows" and "colder weather upcoming." Although I don't think we'll torch, I'm not going to buy a big-time below average pattern until I see it only a few days away, as the models have been much too aggressive regarding the re-emergence of the NAO block, which in reality has faded to unimportance in the late winter/early spring period.

Today was another picture-perfect spring day in Westchester County, with a high of 70.1F after a low of 45.8F. I spent most of the day helping proctor AP History exams, but I did get out in the garden from 4:30-6:00PM before I started my evening job at a local restaurant. I planted two Ichiban eggpplants and one Black Beauty eggplant, all from a local nursery, as well as a few pepper plants of different varieties that I bought from Home Depot. I also was able to transplant two types of heirloom tomatoes, Moonglow and Dr. Wyche's Yellow, from a seed rack in which I had been raising them to the main garden...they look good although still young! My garden is almost done now except for a few obscure peppers and tomatoes that are being mailed to me as seedlings next week, all to be put in containers with a mixture of top soil, potting soil, manure, peat moss, and kelp meal.

A strong -NAO can still cause nasty cold weather in May as late-season Nor'easters are still relatively common at our latitude. When you have a strong -NAO/-AO block as we saw during 2009, you can get some of these coastal rainstorms with highs in the 50s under gray skies and strong NE flow. That being said, the general trend of the NAO and the trough over the East Pacific/West Coast doesn't really support an extended period of below normal temperatures for this region. Even though Canada has been unseasonably cold this spring, most of the remaining arctic air has been pouring into the Northern Plains/Pacific Northwest. Seattle had its 2nd coldest April on record, just behind 1955...Here are the departures in temperatures for the last month:

With these cut-offs locked in to our northeast, it's hard to imagine a heat wave before Memorial Day, but my guess is we're going to see stunning spring weather with highs in the 65-70F range the next 4 days, followed by mid-upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday as the warm front starts to lift north with the next system approaching from the Plains.

Nate, what's the difference between the purple eggplant and the white ones? do you plant all kinds? I love home made eggplant parm, but I wonder if there is a certain type that I should use that is the best.

[tmagan]

I'd watch for shower or t-storm tomorrow. Potent s/w trof moving thru. These can surprise.

RUC KLGA 21Z Saturday.

[Dark Energy]

RUC KLGA 21Z Saturday.

Nice! Total totals over 50 and over 500 j/kg of CAPE. This could be a hailer in some spots.

Nice lapse rates too

[tmagan]

Nice! Total totals over 50 and over 500 j/kg of CAPE. This could be a hailer in some spots.

Nice lapse rates too

Wet bulb zero heights around 7kft.

[Dark Energy]

If the ML lapse rates on this 00z OKX raob stay true later today, and they may given the cold pool/strong s/w trof moving thru, then we may see some sct strong storms. It will be interesting to watch if it does pan out.

[Dark Energy]

00Z SPC WRF hits areas W and N of NYC with storms. Meh, stil something to watch, regardless.

[pazzo83]

Still 59 in midtown. I love that UHI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[pazzo83]

The NAO block has been consistently less impressive/less persistent than modeled since the January 12th Miller B snowstorm. We've heard a lot about the return of the -NAO, but it hasn't really come to fruition except for the 3/24 period, especially against expectations given what transpired in Winter 09-10, December '10, and the various prognostications of the models showing a strongly dipping NAO index. It seems that the index is generally averaging quite positive with a mean trough located over Baffin Island/western Greenland; the only departures from this pattern have been short-lived and also east-based North Atlantic ridges. The GFS severely overestimated the strength of the blocking for early May; instead of a crummy week with highs in the 40s, we got one cool afternoon surrounded by glorious days in the 70F range. The lack of a sustained NAO verifying has meant that the SE ridge has been able to build farther north; April was +1.8F at Central Park and May is running at only -0.1F through today despite all the conversations about "cut-off lows" and "colder weather upcoming." Although I don't think we'll torch, I'm not going to buy a big-time below average pattern until I see it only a few days away, as the models have been much too aggressive regarding the re-emergence of the NAO block, which in reality has faded to unimportance in the late winter/early spring period.

Today was another picture-perfect spring day in Westchester County, with a high of 70.1F after a low of 45.8F. I spent most of the day helping proctor AP History exams, but I did get out in the garden from 4:30-6:00PM before I started my evening job at a local restaurant. I planted two Ichiban eggpplants and one Black Beauty eggplant, all from a local nursery, as well as a few pepper plants of different varieties that I bought from Home Depot. I also was able to transplant two types of heirloom tomatoes, Moonglow and Dr. Wyche's Yellow, from a seed rack in which I had been raising them to the main garden...they look good although still young! My garden is almost done now except for a few obscure peppers and tomatoes that are being mailed to me as seedlings next week, all to be put in containers with a mixture of top soil, potting soil, manure, peat moss, and kelp meal.

A strong -NAO can still cause nasty cold weather in May as late-season Nor'easters are still relatively common at our latitude. When you have a strong -NAO/-AO block as we saw during 2009, you can get some of these coastal rainstorms with highs in the 50s under gray skies and strong NE flow. That being said, the general trend of the NAO and the trough over the East Pacific/West Coast doesn't really support an extended period of below normal temperatures for this region. Even though Canada has been unseasonably cold this spring, most of the remaining arctic air has been pouring into the Northern Plains/Pacific Northwest. Seattle had its 2nd coldest April on record, just behind 1955...Here are the departures in temperatures for the last month:

With these cut-offs locked in to our northeast, it's hard to imagine a heat wave before Memorial Day, but my guess is we're going to see stunning spring weather with highs in the 65-70F range the next 4 days, followed by mid-upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday as the warm front starts to lift north with the next system approaching from the Plains.

You making this post makes me:

[nzucker]

Nate, what's the difference between the purple eggplant and the white ones? do you plant all kinds? I love home made eggplant parm, but I wonder if there is a certain type that I should use that is the best.

There are many, many different types of eggplant...from solid red ovular to the slender Japanese light purple/white eggplant to meaty Black Beauties with their deep skin hue....Seed Savers Exchange, a non-profit devoted to distributing and researching rare/old seeds, has about 12 types of eggplant seeds for non-members, and probably more than triple that for paying members with the paper catalog. In terms of flavor, the Japanese eggplant and the slender white, sometimes found in the "Casper" variety from France, tend to be a bit milder with a texture more suited to stir frying than roasting/grilling. I use Black Beauty (the most common variety) or Florida High Bush eggplants for Eggplant Parmesan (Rosa Bianca, an old squat type commonly sold at markets, works well too); you want a larger eggplant that you can slice thinly for frying and assembly, and these varieties become extremely sweet and break down well for eating heavily-flavored dishes like Eggplant Parmesan. I use Black Beauty a lot for baba ghanosh given that it breaks down well and has a delicious sweetness/fullness when roasted at medium-high temperature. For more lightly-cooked dishes like stir-fry, antipasti, etc....I prefer to use an eggplant like Japanese (also the Pingtun variety, from Taiwan) or Ichiban which is commonly grown and has an extremely straight, narrow shape.

This year, I bought 2 Ichiban eggplants and 1 Black Beauty from the local nursery. In the past I've done Black Beauty (big plant unfortunately, and my original garden was small before several expansions this year)...the flavors were pretty solid but the rainy 2009 summer did a toll on them for a while, never reached their full potentials. I didn't grow eggplant last year (too cold in Northern Montana) or in 2008 (first summer gardening, didn't want to try something more difficult than tomatoes and squash). Thus, most of these varieties I've tried come from farmers' markets, like the White Plains International Market downtown. This year, however, I am set on getting at least 3X the amount of eggplants I had in Summer 2009: I've already got three plants in the ground, I am going to head to Home Depot in a week when they get their Japanese eggplant in and pick up a couple. Anyway, here is a visual guide of some of the common types:

Black Beauty:

Ichiban:

Casper:

Rosa Bianca:

Florida High Bush:

Research and photos from:

http://www.seedsavers.org/Items.aspx?hierId=28

http://homegrown-harvest.com/vegetables.html

[A-L-E-X]

It's too bad you didn't grow that in this area last summer-- heat is one thing that was in plentiful supply.

[nzucker]

It's too bad you didn't grow that in this area last summer-- heat is one thing that was in plentiful supply.

Yeah eggplants love heat....they really blossom when it's 90F or so...

BTW 0z ECM is a near torch in the longer range:

[Dark Energy]

There are many, many different types of eggplant...from solid red ovular to the slender Japanese light purple/white eggplant to meaty Black Beauties with their deep skin hue....Seed Savers Exchange, a non-profit devoted to distributing and researching rare/old seeds, has about 12 types of eggplant seeds for non-members, and probably more than triple that for paying members with the paper catalog. In terms of flavor, the Japanese eggplant and the slender white, sometimes found in the "Casper" variety from France, tend to be a bit milder with a texture more suited to stir frying than roasting/grilling. I use Black Beauty (the most common variety) or Florida High Bush eggplants for Eggplant Parmesan (Rosa Bianca, an old squat type commonly sold at markets, works well too); you want a larger eggplant that you can slice thinly for frying and assembly, and these varieties become extremely sweet and break down well for eating heavily-flavored dishes like Eggplant Parmesan. I use Black Beauty a lot for baba ghanosh given that it breaks down well and has a delicious sweetness/fullness when roasted at medium-high temperature. For more lightly-cooked dishes like stir-fry, antipasti, etc....I prefer to use an eggplant like Japanese (also the Pingtun variety, from Taiwan) or Ichiban which is commonly grown and has an extremely straight, narrow shape.

This year, I bought 2 Ichiban eggplants and 1 Black Beauty from the local nursery. In the past I've done Black Beauty (big plant unfortunately, and my original garden was small before several expansions this year)...the flavors were pretty solid but the rainy 2009 summer did a toll on them for a while, never reached their full potentials. I didn't grow eggplant last year (too cold in Northern Montana) or in 2008 (first summer gardening, didn't want to try something more difficult than tomatoes and squash). Thus, most of these varieties I've tried come from farmers' markets, like the White Plains International Market downtown. This year, however, I am set on getting at least 3X the amount of eggplants I had in Summer 2009: I've already got three plants in the ground, I am going to head to Home Depot in a week when they get their Japanese eggplant in and pick up a couple. Anyway, here is a visual guide of some of the common types:

Black Beauty:

Ichiban:

Casper:

Rosa Bianca:

Florida High Bush:

Research and photos from:

http://www.seedsaver....aspx?hierId=28

http://homegrown-har...vegetables.html

The black beauty ones are the ones I buy at the local farm stands. They come out pretty good for parm. I like to fry em and coat them, then eat some of them before making the parm. They are really good just out of the frying pan. I've seen the white ones, but never tried them. thanks for the info.

[nzucker]

The black beauty ones are the ones I buy at the local farm stands. They come out pretty good for parm. I like to fry em and coat them, then eat some of them before making the parm. They are really good just out of the frying pan. I've seen the white ones, but never tried them. thanks for the info.

I always trust the Black Beauty for classic Italian/Mediterranean dishes. The only disadvantage is that it can break up and caramelize too much for subtler dishes like a Thai green curry or a thinly sliced eggplant with arugula and fresh mozz for antipasti. I hope my Black Beauty does well this summer as well as the two smaller Ichiban Eggplants, adore their gorgeous purple flowers and the fact that I can make eggplant parm with basically all garden stuff by early August (I grow eggplant, tomatoes, hot peppers, bell peppers, oregano, and basil...what else could you need?). I may be able to add a couple more eggplant seedlings if I can expand the garden in the way I want to, which is mostly adding a separate section primarily for lettuces and other greens that like a bit more cover, but will have some sunnier spots for the nightshades...

You're welcome...eggplant is my favorite veggie, I'm an avid cook and gardener, so I love to chat about it. I think we're getting into a great gardening pattern with 70s by day, low 50s by night and sun all the time. I'm noticing rapid growth in my cucumbers, cauliflower, and tomatoes.

[bluewave]

Yeah,this is a nice cold pool set up today for some small hail potential and thunder.

[TheTrials]

NW Jersey gonna get some hail today. Noreaster85/yanksfan will probably issue a hail evacuation later.

[MJO812]

It's really nice down in Wildwood

[tornadojay]

like yesterday, I'm stil not jumping up and down over this afternoon's threat.. this shortwave is not all that strong IMO. I know there's quite a bit of instability, but I don't think this shortwave is capable of doing much damage. I'd like to see a real tight vort max and upper low pass through with strong height falls.. I'm just not seeing that. We'll see what happens.

[bkviking]

In Port Jeff Village and see cumulous building over Sound towards CT, but that's pretty not unusual. Shorts weather finally out here past few days--finally awesome!. Anyway, radar showing storms poppin in MA.

[earthlight]

..NORTHEAST

A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM NERN PA AND

NRN NJ ACROSS SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH

UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHEAST TODAY HAVE ALREADY SUPPORTED THE

DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND LOW-TOPPED TSTMS ACROSS NRN PA/WRN NY.

MINUS 25C TO -28C COLD POOL AT 500MB AND LOW FREEZING

LEVELS...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE

VALUES PERHAPS CLIMBING TO 500 J/KG. BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH THE

UPPER TROUGH AND GENERALLY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST POORLY

ORGANIZED/SHORT-LIVED STORMS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF HAILSTONES

REACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

..CARBIN/COHEN.. 05/07/2011

[Cfa]

It's really nice down in Wildwood

I love Wildwood.

I'm glad we're not getting the marine layer thing day after day, it's been great out as well.

[scooter13]

I wish it could be May every day of the year.....awesome weather.

[Cfa]

Rain drops in Valley Stream.

[CooL]

18z GFS total QPF for the area

0.50" - 0.75"

this month is looking warm and dry, although i believe the real heat waves will be tamed until later in may and june like Zucker and Isotherm have discussed about.

[Amped]

Does it bother anyone that the GFS shows continuos precip for NYC from 144-372hrs.

It won't verify, but I suspect It is trying to tell us that there will be a major rain event in the 156-204 timeframe.

[Weathergun]

The ULL is going to be problem this week, for those that want heat. I don't we think get out the 60s Tues and Wed with NE flow and 850mb temps below 5C. There could also be some clouds and showers for eastern areas. Beyond that I have no confidence in how models handle the ULL I'd be concerned that the ULL hangs around longer, with the just positive height anomalies the model guidance are showing North and Central Atlantic.

[bluewave]

That blocking around Hudson Bay is a good set up for a cut off low underneath like the models are showing.

[Weathergun]

That blocking around Hudson Bay is a good set up for a cut off low underneath like the models are showing.

Yeah, it is. The amount of blocking at mid-lattitudes, the model guidance shows has me concerned for more persistent troughs or cut-off lows in the East in medium and long range.

[ict1523]

Next few days look absolutely gorgeous, 65-75 and sun. Wish it could be that thru september

[Sundog]

Today is just ridiculously gorgeous. Anybody wanting heat and humidity over this is insane.

[NorEaster27]

Great day today