Sundog Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Il take another month of today, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 the wind needs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 This looks much more enjoyable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The long range doesn't offer too much hope of any real summertime heat, which I really am looking forward to. I like the hot weather... don't get me wrong though.. these days of 65-75 degrees are very nice.. I just want the nights to be warm also so I can just go outside in shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The long range doesn't offer too much hope of any real summertime heat, which I really am looking forward to. I like the hot weather... don't get me wrong though.. these days of 65-75 degrees are very nice.. I just want the nights to be warm also so I can just go outside in shorts. Looks like near normal temperatures through Day 10 on the 12z ECM/GFS with highs mostly in the mid 60s with lows in the upper 40s for Westchester. Monday-Wednesday of next week look to be the most promising with wall-to-wall sunshine, although 850mb temperatures near 4C don't support any big-time heat. I'm hoping the heat ridge over the Southern Plains can bubble towards us a bit more with the cut-off being farther from the coast to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The long range doesn't offer too much hope of any real summertime heat, which I really am looking forward to. I like the hot weather... don't get me wrong though.. these days of 65-75 degrees are very nice.. I just want the nights to be warm also so I can just go outside in shorts. That would be a bust for earthlight. He has been calling for torch for weeks. This summer looks like an 09 repeat to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 That would be a bust for earthlight. He has been calling for torch for weeks. This summer looks like an 09 repeat to me. JJA had over 20" of rain in 2009. I doubt we see that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 JJA had over 20" of rain in 2009. I doubt we see that this year. why, because it has been so dry lately? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 why, because it has been so dry lately? LOL We haven't been doubling monthly precip totals in NYC lately. It's been above avg, but not by a significant amount. April '11 was just over 1" above average in NYC, and March was +1.8". For May NYC has gotten exactly a half inch (May avg is ~4.7"), and with not much precip (if any) expected in the next 7 days, it is going to have to be pretty rainy for the rest of the month after that to hit that number. I'd go with not quite as warm as summer '10 (but wetter) and not quite as wet as summer '09 (but warmer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 We haven't been doubling monthly precip totals in NYC lately. It's been above avg, but not by a significant amount. April '11 was just over 1" above average in NYC, and March was +1.8". For May NYC has gotten exactly a half inch (May avg is ~4.7"), and with not much precip (if any) expected in the next 7 days, it is going to have to be pretty rainy for the rest of the month after that to hit that number. I'd go with not quite as warm as summer '10 (but wetter) and not quite as wet as summer '09 (but warmer). Lolz way to go out on a limb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 was there even a summer in 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The last decade has seen greater April warmth relative to the means than May across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 brrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Still around 60 in the city (61 in midtown). We'll probably get down in the 50-52 range, as it is dry as **** out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Il take another month of today, thanks. No way. Felt cold with the 30mph+ winds. Give me 5mph winds and 75 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 UHI doing its dirty work tonight; clear skies calm winds. Currently 57F in NYC, meanwhile I'm at 44.1F here in Colts Neck with the heat on. Radiating nicely; winds decoupled immediately after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Still around 60 in the city (61 in midtown). We'll probably get down in the 50-52 range, as it is dry as **** out. Live out in Elko for a couple years and then you'll learn a thing or two about "dry as ****" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 UHI doing its dirty work tonight; clear skies calm winds. Currently 57F in NYC, meanwhile I'm at 44.1F here in Colts Neck with the heat on. Radiating nicely; winds decoupled immediately after sunset. 40.3F now, already down to my forecasted low. Maybe I can manage some patchy frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Live out in Elko for a couple years and then you'll learn a thing or two about "dry as ****" Nevada is awesome in the summer, especially in the mountains/high desert. Every day is in the 70s to low 80s, and the dry air makes outdoor activities like hiking a cinch. You just have to remember to drink lots of fluids because you don't feel sweaty compared to summertime exercise in the Northeast. I was in the East Humboldt Range around Wells, NV for 5 days last summer as we discussed, and I loved the airmass we were in...long, sunny days and crisp, cool nights. It rained once in the mountains to the tune of perhaps a quarter inch or so, but the town only seemed to have had sporadic showers a couple of thousand feet lower in elevation. Except for the rainy night, every evening made it down into the 40s in short order, great radiational cooling in a rural environment at 7000' with extremely low relative humidity. Being out west in MT, NV, and UT last summer made me appreciate the Rocky Mountain warm season, which is incredibly pleasant compared to the stagnant, humid, hazy airmasses that define most summers near NYC. 40.3F now, already down to my forecasted low. Maybe I can manage some patchy frost. 49.3/34 here, chilly night for the first week of May though nothing unusual. Putnam County, which begins about 20 miles north of me, has a frost advisory for the wee hours. I bought eggplants and peppers today for my garden, but decided to stick them in the garage instead of planting them due to the unusually crisp night. It just sucks that we run out of these refreshingly cool nights by mid-June here in NYC's northern suburbs....would like to have a few of these beauties interspersed throughout the summer. You radiate exceptionally well in Monmouth County, very impressive. I would assume you are at pretty low elevation in a flatland. Westchester tends not to radiate as well since it is so hilly and fairly developed in this part of the county. My house is on a hill around 350' ASL, so it is really hard to radiate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Chilly start, should be a b e a utiful day by 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 The GFS ensembles are suggesting a much cooler weather and a perhaps a storm somewhere over the East Coast in about 10 days.With a huge, deep-layer trough in the East. The -AO,-NAO,+PNA and MJO in phases 7/8 all support it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 The GFS ensembles are suggesting a much cooler weather and a perhaps a storm somewhere over the East Coast in about 10 days.With a huge, deep-layer trough in the East. The -AO,-NAO,+PNA and MJO in phases 7/8 all support it: definitely looks like an anamolous set-up... the global ensembles have a good part of the midatlantic up through the northeast in the 4-8 C range at 850 during that time.. even into parts of the southeast.. probably would have greatest news in the south with perhaps some record low temps if they get ideal radiational cooling conditions. If a storm does happen to form, would be an interesting set-up for maybe some record low highs with extensive cloud cover.. otherwise, record lows at night is probably the best bet at this point across the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 So no 180hr heatwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Today is a gorgeous day. Light winds and low 70's. Not the crap we had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 So no 180hr heatwave? looks like May 12th - 13th offers the best sign of really warm weather. Inland areas have a shot at 80+ it would seem so long as we get a fairly good west to southwest synoptic flow and good mixing. 850 temps are in the neighborhood of 13-15C. That would put us in the upper 70's to lower 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 upton is going 50-60% chance pops tomorrow.... I mean.. it's a fairly decent shortwave moving through, but it's also a bit sheared out. In actuality, the amount of vorticity in our area during the day doesn't really increase and in fact heights do begin to rise a bit late in the day. I'm not sure that this is the type of upper level system capable of 50-60% pops, but I could be wrong. It will definitely be unstable with very steep lapse rates, but I don't think it will amount to much more than a lot of building CU and a few widely scattered showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 I know its a terrible model, but the NOAGPS is on board with a drenching rain storm at 180hrs. It's got decent support from the CMC although its a bit slower than the NOAGPS. It also has support from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Nevada is awesome in the summer, especially in the mountains/high desert. Every day is in the 70s to low 80s, and the dry air makes outdoor activities like hiking a cinch. You just have to remember to drink lots of fluids because you don't feel sweaty compared to summertime exercise in the Northeast. I was in the East Humboldt Range around Wells, NV for 5 days last summer as we discussed, and I loved the airmass we were in...long, sunny days and crisp, cool nights. It rained once in the mountains to the tune of perhaps a quarter inch or so, but the town only seemed to have had sporadic showers a couple of thousand feet lower in elevation. Except for the rainy night, every evening made it down into the 40s in short order, great radiational cooling in a rural environment at 7000' with extremely low relative humidity. Being out west in MT, NV, and UT last summer made me appreciate the Rocky Mountain warm season, which is incredibly pleasant compared to the stagnant, humid, hazy airmasses that define most summers near NYC. 49.3/34 here, chilly night for the first week of May though nothing unusual. Putnam County, which begins about 20 miles north of me, has a frost advisory for the wee hours. I bought eggplants and peppers today for my garden, but decided to stick them in the garage instead of planting them due to the unusually crisp night. It just sucks that we run out of these refreshingly cool nights by mid-June here in NYC's northern suburbs....would like to have a few of these beauties interspersed throughout the summer. You radiate exceptionally well in Monmouth County, very impressive. I would assume you are at pretty low elevation in a flatland. Westchester tends not to radiate as well since it is so hilly and fairly developed in this part of the county. My house is on a hill around 350' ASL, so it is really hard to radiate here. Yeah I noticed an interesting difference b/t here and at school in terms of radiational cooling. Villanova's elevation is 480ft, while here I'm at about 100ft, less hilly, and more rural. Pretty big temp differences at night. My low was 37.1 this morning, no frost though. Not bad foran early May morning, althoughI've gotten down to 32F in mid May before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Low of 50 this AM in NYC. Up to 65 now in the park and 70 in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 The GFS ensembles are suggesting a much cooler weather and a perhaps a storm somewhere over the East Coast in about 10 days.With a huge, deep-layer trough in the East. The -AO,-NAO,+PNA and MJO in phases 7/8 all support it: GFS is wrong, go with the Euro. Looks like 70's for the next 10+ days for NJ. Awesome weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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