IsentropicLift Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 yep this sucks. meanwhile the city hasn't gotten much thus far lol but there getting it good now After a closer look at the radar, the precip shield is not advancing eastward at all it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Moderate rain with a temp of 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Seems like all the models did a bad job with qpf amounts. Chilly rainy day. Why did the models have this much trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Seems like all the models did a bad job with qpf amounts. Chilly rainy day. Why did the models have this much trouble? Yep, and when I posted that it was hard to believe that we weren't going to even see measurable precip according to the NAM and that it was most likely wrong I got laughed at. The SREF actually had the best handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Seems like all the models did a bad job with qpf amounts. Chilly rainy day. Why did the models have this much trouble? I thought the models would get better ,since we are done with winter. I guess I was wrong though. They are having a lot of trouble for some reason. Maybe it's because of La NIna. I remember someone mentioning that the models have trouble in La Nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Intense convection near the Delmarva coast. Reminds me of that super soaker we got a few weeks ago with a steady stream of moderate to heavy precip streaming up the coast and no end in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 RGEM did pretty good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I don't know that amounts are going to be all that crazy, especially west of the city. the heavy stuff seems to be setting up over LI. the GFS has .35 for EWR and may end up close to that all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I don't know that amounts are going to be all that crazy, especially west of the city. the heavy stuff seems to be setting up over LI. the GFS has .35 for EWR and may end up close to that all said and done. what run was that of the gfs? Seems the last few days the models wanted to dry this preciep up. Not saying we are getting floods, but overall it seem like poor model performance. Two bust for the Nam this week. Rain and monday temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I don't know that amounts are going to be all that crazy, especially west of the city. the heavy stuff seems to be setting up over LI. the GFS has .35 for EWR and may end up close to that all said and done. I'm well west of the city and I was already at 0.5"+ when I left my house at 7:45 this morning. Looks like most people will end up with around an inch depending on where the heavier stuff down in south Jersey ends up. LI looks like it will be getting the brunt of it but more is developing underneath a bit of a dry slot which has formed over alot of northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Just be glad you guys aren't here near the Poconos right now. It's 37 degrees where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 This morning's run had .35 for EWR and .37 for MMU, but I agree the NAM has been a disaster regarding QPF amounts what run was that of the gfs? Seems the last few days the models wanted to dry this preciep up. Not saying we are getting floods, but overall it seem like poor model performance. Two bust for the Nam this week. Rain and monday temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I'm well west of the city and I was already at 0.5"+ when I left my house at 7:45 this morning. Looks like most people will end up with around an inch depending on where the heavier stuff down in south Jersey ends up. LI looks like it will be getting the brunt of it but more is developing underneath a bit of a dry slot which has formed over alot of northern NJ. Looks to me as if the heavier stuff in South-Central NJ is consolidating and will begin to train over NYC metro in the next couple hours. Have only recorded 0.22" here in Southern Westchester but expect to receive quite a bit more from that banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I picked up some heavier rain earlier but it's lighter now here in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Looks to me as if the heavier stuff in South-Central NJ is consolidating and will begin to train over NYC metro in the next couple hours. Have only recorded 0.22" here in Southern Westchester but expect to receive quite a bit more from that banding. large area of 0.25"+ per hour estimated amounts developing down there. It still looks like that will mostly stay east of the city, but heavier bands are developing again in northern DE and that has a chance at making west of the city or into the city itself. Either way, its going to be a soaker through early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 This morning's run had .35 for EWR and .37 for MMU, but I agree the NAM has been a disaster regarding QPF amounts Good catch. It might have corrected itself. I know yesterdays runs where pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 51/49... .18" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 New NAM has finaly corrected itself, has between 0.25"-0.75" additional QPF for most of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Upton's zone updates are rather strange... For some reason, they have decided to mention that temps will fall into the upper 40's to around 50 in some of the zones, while others, just leaving a high of the lower 60's. For example, here in Rockland, they didn't mention temps falling, but in Westchester they did. Eastern Bergen they had temps falling, but not in western Bergen....... really strange! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Upton's zone updates are rather strange... For some reason, they have decided to mention that temps will fall into the upper 40's to around 50 in some of the zones, while others, just leaving a high of the lower 60's. For example, here in Rockland, they didn't mention temps falling, but in Westchester they did. Eastern Bergen they had temps falling, but not in western Bergen....... really strange! They just have a high of 50F for the afternoon today here in Dobbs Ferry: This Afternoon: Showers, mainly before 4pm. Steady temperature around 50. They are also only calling for .1-.25" rainfall, which may be a bit low. We'll see if that stuff in NJ makes it here. Official high was 60.7F earlier today before temperatures began rapidly falling in moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 They have temps holding steady in Ramsey at 49 degrees. It's currently 50 degrees. Taking a look at the new NAM, its still doesn't have that good of a handle on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 50F here in Ewing with 0.42" in the gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 I would like my 70s back please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Check this sh*t out guys: Snowshoe, WV: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 They just have a high of 50F for the afternoon today here in Dobbs Ferry: This Afternoon: Showers, mainly before 4pm. Steady temperature around 50. They are also only calling for .1-.25" rainfall, which may be a bit low. We'll see if that stuff in NJ makes it here. Official high was 60.7F earlier today before temperatures began rapidly falling in moderate rain. they updated now and makes more sense, but it didn't make much sense during there 10:00 update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 i think we can salvage 3 hours of late day sunlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 All day cold rain here in CNJ. 0.73" on counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Looks like the rain will be ending for most of us during the 3pm hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. I'm fine with one day like this, besides, the pollen levels have been knocked down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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