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May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion


tmagan

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Both the Euro and GFS are hinting at another cut off low sometime around Memorial Day Weekend, that should make a lot of folks here happy.

12z euro has nothing, 00z euro had nothing either ..Stop Hallucinating rain storms

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There's an outflow boundary beginning to separate itself and head eastward from the convective clusters over western NJ. The boundary should propagate toward central NJ within the next hour or so, and initiate development of new cells/convection, which will now also be aided by the departing high clouds and what surface heating remains. I don't think any new storms will make it as far east as NYC, but they may come close, and I'd give a good chance of having it effect central Jersey.

post-705-0-93001700-1305838586.gif

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Better depiction on the latest frame, I would loop it, but it's way too large of an image and I don't want the board to crawl because of it. You can however watch it evolve here: http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radar.php?&dix=anim&radar=Fort%20Dix%20Radar

Interesting feature, we'll see how it plays out and how any new storms initiate from it. That eastern half of the SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch may yet still be realized.

post-705-0-48674500-1305839076.gif

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New storms beginning to pop over Bergen County NJ, aided by the forcing from the outflow, hints of development along that northern part of the outflow boundary. A lot of towering cumulus observed here in Queens. May not transpire though into anything more than a few thundershowers with what meager instability.

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New storms beginning to pop over Bergen County NJ, aided by the forcing from the outflow, hints of development along that northern part of the outflow boundary. A lot of towering cumulus observed here in Queens. May not transpire though into anything more than a few thundershowers with what meager instability.

Rolling fog banks here. Our fate is realized down here on the shore regardless of what happens anywhere else. Marine layer is always the trump card. :axe:

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