IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 12z NAM has about 0.25" - 0.5" for the city, less than 0.25" points east, and up to 1.0" with locally higher amounts for the far western burbs. The simulated radar for later today is quite robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 12z NAM continues this wet weather right thru tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 3.82" so far for the event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 The sun has broken out here in Ramsey, let the destabilization process begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0947 AM CDT THU MAY 19 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NY...ERN PA...AND CENTRAL/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 191447Z - 191615Z SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF ERN PA...NRN NJ INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NY. HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL BE ADDED TO THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR THIS MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL-NERN PA...NJ AND INTO MUCH OF NY...WITH SURFACE HEATING ALSO EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY TRACKING NWD THROUGH SRN/CENTRAL NY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE AIR MASS FROM DELMARVA/MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD INTO NY DESTABILIZING /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/...GIVEN SURFACE HEATING BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7 C/KM. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH THE MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY... EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NWD FROM ERN VA AND THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO NJ AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NY. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES PER AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS /-18 TO -20 C AT 500 MB/ ADVECTING OVER THIS REGION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. 11Z WRF-HRRR AND 00Z 4 KM WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM SUPPORT THE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SHOWING ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS/BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN PA AND SPREADING INTO NJ/NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 The 12z GFS gives everyone in NJ around an inch more of rain through 48hrs and east of that around a half inch with amounts decreasing as you move east. Looks like the threat for training will be higher today and situated over NJ and PA which means most everyone in this sub-forum won't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 13z HRRR 1-hour MAX DBZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 13z HRRR 1-hour MAX DBZ looks sweet but I don't think that line makes it too far east, could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 The 12z GFS gives everyone in NJ around an inch more of rain through 48hrs and east of that around a half inch with amounts decreasing as you move east. Looks like the threat for training will be higher today and situated over NJ and PA which means most everyone in this sub-forum won't care. Today's 12z GFS does not give anyone in NJ an inch of rain through 48 hours. I'm not sure which model you're looking at. Again with the illusions. Below is the 60 hour total from today's 12z GFS, ending Saturday night. Blue shade is .50-.75"... an inch is only bullseyed over northeastern PA, and western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Severe T Watch # 307 now up for western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Today's 12z GFS does not give anyone in NJ an inch of rain through 48 hours. I'm not sure which model you're looking at. Again with the illusions. Below is the 60 hour total from today's 12z GFS, ending Saturday night. Blue shade is .50-.75"... an inch is only bullseyed over northeastern PA, and western New England. shocker, he exagerated something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL 800 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHEAST OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS ERN PA AND SPREAD INTO NJ AND PARTS OF SRN AND SERN NY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MULTICELLS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL THE PRIMARY THREATS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 20020. ...PETERS/IMY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Today's 12z GFS does not give anyone in NJ an inch of rain through 48 hours. I'm not sure which model you're looking at. Again with the illusions. Below is the 60 hour total from today's 12z GFS, ending Saturday night. Blue shade is .50-.75"... an inch is only bullseyed over northeastern PA, and western New England. when I see a broad area of around 0.75" on the GFS I bump it up just a hair to account for the lower resolution. Not really sure why it matters though, its generally a terrible model to use for short term QPF. Sure there are days that it does a good job and then you get days like yesterday where none of the models did a very good job on picking it up. And before a smart one on here says that I'm wrong about none of the models doing a good job yesterday, that came right from Upton's AFD yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 when I see a broad area of around 0.75" on the GFS I bump it up just a hair to account for the lower resolution. Not really sure why it matters though, its generally a terrible model to use for short term QPF. Sure there are days that it does a good job and then you get days like yesterday where none of the models did a very good job on picking it up. And before a smart one on here says that I'm wrong about none of the models doing a good job yesterday, that came right from Upton's AFD yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Both the Euro and GFS are hinting at another cut off low sometime around Memorial Day Weekend, that should make a lot of folks here happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Next week looks unsettled on the GFS, despite this I hear everyone saying how nice its going to be (by everyone I mean the news channels). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Looks like the setup today is much more conductive to training of storms. They are also numerous and slow moving. I could see portions of NJ being added to the flash flood watch. FFG has to be quite low over most of northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Very impressive hourly rainfall amounts under those back-building cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Very impressive hourly rainfall amounts under those back-building cells. yeah if we get into it here out in Jersey we could definitly see a repeat if not worse than yesterday. I heard the traffic was horrible yesterday around Rt. 46 & 3 due to flooding. I saw some minor street flooding on Rt. 23 also with one lane partially blocked near High Crest Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 yeah if we get into it here out in Jersey we could definitly see a repeat if not worse than yesterday. I heard the traffic was horrible yesterday around Rt. 46 & 3 due to flooding. I saw some minor street flooding on Rt. 23 also with one lane partially blocked near High Crest Road. If the storms train right over your area you will pick up a lot of rain in a short period of time. There's no shortage of heavy rain/flooding closed low analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1220 PM UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED BY THE SPC FOR AREAS W OF THE HUDSON RIVER INCLUDING NORTHEAST NJ AND ORANGE AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM FORECAST TRENDS...THE HIGHEST THREAT IS MODERATE FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PLUS PER HOUR. THIS MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AS SMALL STREAMS SLOWLY RECEDE ACROSS NORTHEAST NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 latest infrared images show considerable cooling of the cloud tops over NJ http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/ne/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I don't think the storms make it as far east as the watch extends. I would expect they remain back west where the best dynamics and lift are. Don't think things shift east until it is to late for some area. Just had a nice cell move through here in Newark, DE. Nice louds claps of thunder and some torrential rains, but that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 latest infrared images show considerable cooling of the cloud tops over NJ http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html Primarily high clouds, cirrus wrapping around the flow and being further saturated from above, not below or near the surface. What you see is streaming clouds associated with the jet, there is nothing building up underneath them, convectively, so to speak. In fact, the high clouds are precluding destabilization/surface instability by putting a lid on the heating. Not to say that thunderstorms won't progress or initiate over NJ/NYC, but those cooling cloud tops are not indicative of any threat. I think most of the precip will stay confined where surface based instability is being realized over eastern PA, and later into extreme western/southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 when I see a broad area of around 0.75" on the GFS I bump it up just a hair to account for the lower resolution. Not really sure why it matters though, its generally a terrible model to use for short term QPF. Sure there are days that it does a good job and then you get days like yesterday where none of the models did a very good job on picking it up. And before a smart one on here says that I'm wrong about none of the models doing a good job yesterday, that came right from Upton's AFD yesterday. Its not a broad area of .75" though. Its .50"-.75". And checking soundings, MMU is .57", so its closer to .50" then .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Its not a broad area of .75" though. Its .50"-.75". And checking soundings, MMU is .57", so its closer to .50" then .75" I say we just bump it up to widespread 6"+, catastrophic flooding, massive loss of life, and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I say we just bump it up to widespread 6"+, catastrophic flooding, massive loss of life, and call it a day. dont encourage him, its bad enough to come in here and see 20 pages of new posts, 9/10 of them from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Its not a broad area of .75" though. Its .50"-.75". And checking soundings, MMU is .57", so its closer to .50" then .75" A higher res version like the one for the NAM on E-WALL would have probably yielded pockets of heavier QPF. The GFS fields in my opinion are way too smooth for this type of convective activity. Those storms over SE PA have barely moved. Estimated dopplar radar total accumulations in a few spots are exceeding 3" with one bullseye of 5"+. So while the very heavy rain will fall in isolated areas, those that do get it will get quite alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I say we just bump it up to widespread 6"+, catastrophic flooding, massive loss of life, and call it a day. I say we break most of northern NJ off from the NY subforum because lets face it, people east of the Hudson don't give a crap about those of us in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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