IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 FWIW, the southern end of that band is tyring to fill in and move further west south of LI, and the whole thing appears to be moving slower than it did a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 i have 3.64" and counting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 i have 3.64" and counting How much today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Back to a deluge here in NE Queens with a strong cell overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 rotation south of LI? http://classic.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&lat=40.84149170&lon=-73.28043365&label=Commack,%20NY&showstorms=0&map.x=354&map.y=228¢erx=400¢ery=240&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 OK, I tried to remain quiet and let this unfold, but some members here apparently do not know how to read maps or have a misconception of geography. There is clearing punching in from the south, over central Jersey. The rain will cease, and it will brighten up shortly, maybe enough to see the sun set. It certainly won't rain all night in NYC, NJ, as some have been alluding to and have been beating drums the size of their heads throughout this entire event. It's difficult to read some of the posts here, and then when I offer some well observed responses and disagree with them, I'm flamed on as a weenie. I don't understand and I don't want to use the ignore button, but people here need to act like weather observers and not illusionists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 New Flash Flood Warnings expanded NW into NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 OK, I tried to remain quiet and let this unfold, but some members here apparently do not know how to read maps or have a misconception of geography. There is clearing punching in from the south, over central Jersey. The rain will cease, and it will brighten up shortly, maybe enough to see the sun set. It certainly won't rain all night in NYC, NJ, as some have been alluding to and have been beating drums the size of their heads throughout this entire event. It's difficult to read some of the posts here, and then when I offer some well observed responses and disagree with them, I'm flamed on as a weenie. I don't understand and I certainly don't want to use the ignore button, but people here need to act like weather observers and not illusionists. when red taggers are telling you that you're wrong, take the hint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 OK, I tried to remain quiet and let this unfold, but some members here apparently do not know how to read maps or have a misconception of geography. There is clearing punching in from the south, over central Jersey. The rain will cease, and it will brighten up shortly, maybe enough to see the sun set. It certainly won't rain all night in NYC, NJ, as some have been alluding to and have been beating drums the size of their heads throughout this entire event. It's difficult to read some of the posts here, and then when I offer some well observed responses and disagree with them, I'm flamed on as a weenie. I don't understand and I certainly don't want to use the ignore button, but people here need to act like weather observers and not illusionists. is your rain not wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 1.49 in. here today... total since sunday 3.63 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 New area of heavy rain about to enter the city and NE NJ. The northern progression of that line has slowed significantly. Meanwhile the gap betweent the two bands is attempting to fill in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Its just rain people lol..This weekend and beyond looks much much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 OK, I tried to remain quiet and let this unfold, but some members here apparently do not know how to read maps or have a misconception of geography. There is clearing punching in from the south, over central Jersey. The rain will cease, and it will brighten up shortly, maybe enough to see the sun set. It certainly won't rain all night in NYC, NJ, as some have been alluding to and have been beating drums the size of their heads throughout this entire event. It's difficult to read some of the posts here, and then when I offer some well observed responses and disagree with them, I'm flamed on as a weenie. I don't understand and I don't want to use the ignore button, but people here need to act like weather observers and not illusionists. OH THE DRAMA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Its just rain people lol..This weekend and beyond looks much much better. agreed, the 12z Euro has another cut off low at day 10, but it is day 10 so alot can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 looks like that second band will have no problem making it up here, but it looks nothing like its big brother did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 very impressive water vapor loop, feed coming all the way from the tropics. Looking at this, its hard to believe that the worst is past us http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 everybody please pray for yanksfan27 aka noreaster85. and please remember that since he lives near a river, he knows more about rainfall, and you should not be speculating about the actual facts of what is happening. the clearing over central new jersey is actually an alternate universe in which everything is opposite, resulting in very heavy rain. the rain will also be quite powdery at nzuckers house because he is at 400 ft. in addition, allsnow is continuing to mow thetrials lawn and mulch his yard, showing true dedication in this absolutely horrible and dangerous weather. he is a real man of genius. there. I made fun of everybody, so now everybody can get over themselves and enjoy the dreary rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Bad comparison. Sky cover at ISP is augmented by contract observers, but its just ASOS readings at Central Park. Compare ISP to EWR, LGA or JFK to get a true comparison. I think this post has some merit to it, based on location. I get constant feedback on the weather on the south shore of Long Island in Suffolk Co. from family and they talk about how miserable it has been overall since spring started. Even looking at some stats, it plain to see the lack of sunny weather so far this spring. ISLIP in April... CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 0 PARTLY CLOUDY (SCALE 4-7) 14 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 16 ISLIP in May..... CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 0 PARTLY CLOUDY (SCALE 4-7) 10 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 7 Amazingly, during that same time period, Central Park has recorder 13 CLEAR (0-3) days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 everybody please pray for yanksfan27 aka noreaster85. and please remember that since he lives near a river, he knows more about rainfall, and you should not be speculating about the actual facts of what is happening. the clearing over central new jersey is actually an alternate universe in which everything is opposite, resulting in very heavy rain. the rain will also be quite powdery at nzuckers house because he is at 400 ft. in addition, allsnow is continuing to mow thetrials lawn and mulch his yard, showing true dedication in this absolutely horrible and dangerous weather. he is a real man of genius. there. I made fun of everybody, so now everybody can get over themselves and enjoy the dreary rain. you need to put in a dig about your obsession with the DGEX and a footnote for using my powdery rain joke. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 everybody please pray for yanksfan27 aka noreaster85. and please remember that since he lives near a river, he knows more about rainfall, and you should not be speculating about the actual facts of what is happening. the clearing over central new jersey is actually an alternate universe in which everything is opposite, resulting in very heavy rain. the rain will also be quite powdery at nzuckers house because he is at 400 ft. in addition, allsnow is continuing to mow thetrials lawn and mulch his yard, showing true dedication in this absolutely horrible and dangerous weather. he is a real man of genius. there. I made fun of everybody, so now everybody can get over themselves and enjoy the dreary rain. It's just funny to see TheTrials say I was a for saying that a flash flood warning was expected. Clearly he was suggesting that NWS Upton are the real for issuing the warning because this is clearly a non-event. Shame on the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 everybody please pray for yanksfan27 aka noreaster85. and please remember that since he lives near a river, he knows more about rainfall, and you should not be speculating about the actual facts of what is happening. the clearing over central new jersey is actually an alternate universe in which everything is opposite, resulting in very heavy rain. the rain will also be quite powdery at nzuckers house because he is at 400 ft. in addition, allsnow is continuing to mow thetrials lawn and mulch his yard, showing true dedication in this absolutely horrible and dangerous weather. he is a real man of genius. there. I made fun of everybody, so now everybody can get over themselves and enjoy the dreary rain. Lmao epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 very impressive water vapor loop, feed coming all the way from the tropics. Looking at this, its hard to believe that the worst is past us http://www.nws.noaa....age=wv&hours=24 Water Vapor imagery also picks up the blow-off from thunderstorms/high cirrus, not every moist reflection in that loop is rain. It's water vapor imagery, measuring water content in the upper levels of the atmosphere, not necessarily at the surface. Please educate yourself on common satellite imagery and their usage as a tool. If you're going to use it, at least take comparison with other satellite data, notably visible and infrared. The VIS loop shows thinning/clearing of the clouds in central/southern NJ, markedly so over the Delmarva. Likewise, the infrared imagery depicts warming of the cloud tops to our south and even southeast, which suggests convection is weakening. Use your tools wisely, but don't be one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 They just posted some damage photos from the NE Philly tornado. http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=weather/forecast&id=8138570 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Confirmed EF0 tornado in NE Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Pounding rain here...gotta be the hardest rain ive seen in years. No exaggeration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Pounding rain here...gotta be the hardest rain ive seen in years. No exaggeration I believe you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 someone in suffolk is getting slammed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 storm total of 3.66" so far. 1.02" with the main band of convection this afternoon, and .32" from showers last night and this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 we are in for a similar setup tomorrow afternoon this event has been characterized by low instability and a nearly saturated moist adiabatic sounding here's nam bufkit for ewr this afternoon: this type of convection produces prolific rainfall nws box: MORE CONCERNED WITH THE BAND ACROSS NJ AND APPROACHING LONGISLAND. THIS BAND IS TIED TO A STRONG VORT LOBE ROTATING AROUNDCLOSED LOW OVER THE OH VLY AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. STRONGUPPER LEVEL JET WITH THIS FEATURE WITH RRQ OF JET PROGGED TO MOVEACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PWATS UP TO 1.5INCHES IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS VORT LOBE ALONG WITHSTRONG THETA-E ADVECTION.WHILE NONE OF THE 12Z MODELS ARE CAPTURING THIS HEAVY RAINFALLVERY WELL IN THEIR QPF FIELDS AT 18Z...HOWEVER THEIR MASS FIELDSSUPPORT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN. ALL MODEL GUID OFFER MODEST FORCING INTHE FORM OF MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA00Z- 06Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WILL BEPROVIDED BY RRQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET. THE WILD CARD WILL BE THEEXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THIS BAND AS ITTRAVERSES NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ALL MODEL GUID SUGGESTDEEP LAYER OF MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD SUPPORTEMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASHORT PERIOD OF TIME. tomorrow afternoon on nam bufkit: a little less moist, but there should be enough lift from a kink in the vort being forecast by both the nam and gfs, as well as the low being nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 We'll get to add to the rainfall totals over the next few days as the closed low is slow to exit. Chances of convection with the heating of the day Thursday and Friday.By Friday the UL will be right overhead and any convection will be nearly stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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