ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 maybe down in your neck of the woods, which I could care less about, I'm under a flash flood warning and its literally pouring here. If you've watched the line evolove like I have, as one area weakens, another fires up. The band over NJ has really intensified over the past hour. I would call you a but that would be a step up for you Its lifting north pretty quickly though. Wont last too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 a few people here need to get a room...seriously.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Where? 18z NAM barely has .25" of rain thru hour 24. Its obviously already wrong though as areas are getting pounded with a lot more right now. I was looking at the simulated radar, not the QPF outputs, all the models have been wrong today with that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Its lifting north pretty quickly though. Wont last too long. Seems to be picking up speed as it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I was looking at the simulated radar, not the QPF outputs, all the models have been wrong today with that regard Everything is flying north though right now. Shouldnt last a great deal longer. Clearing line is almost up to Staten Island already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Its lifting north pretty quickly though. Wont last too long. agreed, but its lasting long enough to dump a significant amount of rain in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 agreed, but its lasting long enough to dump a significant amount of rain in a short period of time. How much? .25"-.50"? with a few localized 1" amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Getting torrential downpour here now in Woodside. Heavy shower just developed over Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 How much? .25"-.50"? with a few localized 1" amounts? doesnt appear any amount were more significant than we see in a strong storm in the summer. Luckily nothing trained today. Flood threat outside clogged drains and poor drainage areas is minimal right now becasue the rain has been so spread out and hasn't really trained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 doesnt appear any amount were more significant than we see in a strong storm in the summer. Luckily nothing trained today. Flood threat outside clogged drains and poor drainage areas is minimal right now becasue the rain has been so spread out and hasn't really trained. Yeah. Its absolutely pouring here right now as I have 50+dbz overhead. But its not going to last long enough for any significant flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 How much? .25"-.50"? with a few localized 1" amounts? I wish Upton had reset the estimated rain totals, but my guess is 1-2" totals for today are alot more widepsread than you think. For one, where I live it's been raining non-stop all day even before this line got here. So while you guys saw the sun pop out, my totals were adding up. I really need to get a rain gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 doesnt appear any amount were more significant than we see in a strong storm in the summer. Luckily nothing trained today. Flood threat outside clogged drains and poor drainage areas is minimal right now becasue the rain has been so spread out and hasn't really trained. Have to disagree, already had 2.2" rainfall for the storm here and we're getting rocked right now. That huge band affecting NJ is going to train over NYC metro for the next couple of hours, and there's more heavy rainfall arriving from the Atlantic. +RA 61.6/61 .36" rainfall today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Have to disagree, already had 2.2" rainfall for the storm here and we're getting rocked right now. That huge band affecting NJ is going to train over NYC metro for the next couple of hours, and there's more heavy rainfall arriving from the Atlantic. +RA 61.6/61 .36" rainfall today That band is over NYC right now and its going to end in the next hour. Its flying north. NYC has received about 2" of rain, plus the current amount. Should be close to 3" by tomorrow. This is a total since Saturday though. Almost a 6 day total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I wish Upton had reset the estimated rain totals, but my guess is 1-2" totals for today are alot more widepsread than you think. For one, where I live it's been raining non-stop all day even before this line got here. So while you guys saw the sun pop out, my totals were adding up. I really need to get a rain gauge. at least get a bucket and a ruller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Have to disagree, already had 2.2" rainfall for the storm here and we're getting rocked right now. That huge band affecting NJ is going to train over NYC metro for the next couple of hours, and there's more heavy rainfall arriving from the Atlantic. +RA 61.6/61 .36" rainfall today 2.2 over three days plus is significant but not crazy. It was dry before this storm, so the rivers and ground can take it. As to the training, that line is moving, lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The rain is wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Have to disagree, already had 2.2" rainfall for the storm here and we're getting rocked right now. That huge band affecting NJ is going to train over NYC metro for the next couple of hours, and there's more heavy rainfall arriving from the Atlantic. +RA 61.6/61 .36" rainfall today whats that storm total, over 5 days? Not very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The rain is wet I have a powdery rain, must be my elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 whats that storm total, over 5 days? Not very impressive Yup. Thats since Saturday. NYC is around 2", since Saturday. Add maybe .50"-1" from now until tomorrow and, they'll be close to 3". But thats a 6 day total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I have a powdery rain, must be my elevation. mixing has commenced here...what a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 rain certainly is not as heavy as the radar indicates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This is the only time I'm going to say it, if you don't live near a river and have never dealt with flooding, you really shouldn't be speculating about it. The whole system is very complex, in particular the Passaic River Basin because you have so many rivers which all end up at the same place. Basically all the runoff from upper Passaic County, lower Passaic County, Bergen County and eastern Morris County ends up in the Passaic River. When you start talking about heavy rain falling on already saturated ground, your talking about almost complete runoff. I'm not saying were going to see major widespread flooding out of this, but there had already been significant rises even before today, and the advanced hydro center just increased river forecast heights. Minor flooding now on the major rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 That band is over NYC right now and its going to end in the next hour. Its flying north. NYC has received about 2" of rain, plus the current amount. Should be close to 3" by tomorrow. This is a total since Saturday though. Almost a 6 day total. It is moving quickly but the 50+ dbz banding south of Suffolk County looks to be intensifying and expanding westward. That could deliver some flash flooding if it reaches the already soggy ground in NYC metro. I don't know if it will get to the 5 Boroughs but Southern Westchester and SW CT may be under the gun for extremely heavy rainfall rates. We'll see what happens with the banding over the ocean, but it looks to be aimed for us and should allow rainfall to continue into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It is moving quickly but the 50+ dbz banding south of Suffolk County looks to be intensifying and expanding westward. That could deliver some flash flooding if it reaches the already soggy ground in NYC metro. I don't know if it will get to the 5 Boroughs but Southern Westchester and SW CT may be under the gun for extremely heavy rainfall rates. We'll see what happens with the banding over the ocean, but it looks to be aimed for us and should allow rainfall to continue into the night. yup-that "tail" looks to smack LI and somewhere in SW CT with some pretty good rates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It is moving quickly but the 50+ dbz banding south of Suffolk County looks to be intensifying and expanding westward. That could deliver some flash flooding if it reaches the already soggy ground in NYC metro. I don't know if it will get to the 5 Boroughs but Southern Westchester and SW CT may be under the gun for extremely heavy rainfall rates. We'll see what happens with the banding over the ocean, but it looks to be aimed for us and should allow rainfall to continue into the night. That area over ocean looks to be losing its punch. Lets see if it re-intensifies, but right now it looks like it will be weak showers, when it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This is just one river located within the entire Passaic River basin... Flood Warning 000WGUS41 KPHI 182013FLWPHIBULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDFLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY413 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A FLOODWARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NEW JERSEY... PEQUANNOCK RIVER BELOW MACOPIN DAM AFFECTING MORRIS AND PASSAIC COUNTIESPRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THEWATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.&&NJC027-031-190213-/O.NEW.KPHI.FL.W.0086.110519T0200Z-000000T0000Z//MCPN4.1.ER.110519T0200Z.110520T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/413 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE PEQUANNOCK RIVER BELOW MACOPIN DAM.* FROM THIS EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.* AT 3:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.9 FEET.* FLOOD STAGE IS 5.5 FEET.* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 6.3 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING. ADDITIONAL RISES ARE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER.* IMPACT...AT 6.5 FEET...BOTH MAIN STREETS IN BUTLER AND BLOOMINGDALE FLOOD. SEVERAL COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES ARE ALSO FLOODED. THE HAMBURG TURNPIKE EXPERIENCES SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. FLOODING EXPANDS TO THE EAST SIDE OF BLOOMINGDALE. SLOAN PARK IS FLOODED.$$ FLD OBSERVED FORECAST LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME CRESTPEQUANNOCK RIVER MACOPIN DAM 5.5 4.91 WED 3 PM 6.3 THU 8 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Yup. Thats since Saturday. NYC is around 2", since Saturday. Add maybe .50"-1" from now until tomorrow and, they'll be close to 3". But thats a 6 day total. fwiw this was always suppose to be a long duration event. Even when the euro had 4 to 6 it was over a four day period. Bands have been very progressive and limited training. I believe earthlight thought this would happen before the event started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 fwiw this was always suppose to be a long duration event. Even when the euro had 4 to 6 it was over a four day period. Bands have been very progressive and limited training. I believe earthlight thought this would happen before the event started Yup. Him and Dark Energy both said this would be banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 the threat of training is dissapearing quick, if it ever existed. The first half of the line and the second half are mis-aligned. You will notice the precip is cutting off quick south to north and the stuff over the ocean is progressing too much to the north to train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Earthlight did key in on the fact that this would not be a synopitc heavy rain event, as did others, and that has been obvious now for awhille. Rain is rain though, and eventually even a long duration event will lead to flooding. In this case, minor flooding is expected as oppose to what we've been through already this year 3 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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