ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 What? It's clearing out over the Delmarva/Southern NJ. They will probably be able to see the sun set. I wouldn't be surprised to see brightening skies (might not clear out, but the rain will be over soon) up in our region in a few hours. There's another area of precip gathering in ocean that is heading right for NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 ok thats what I said? KDIX radar estimates look much more reasonable than OKX. You just repeated your misinformation! When they switch the radar to tropical mode, it shows the precipitation as HEAVIER, because if the drops are smaller, the radar UNDERestimates, because of smaller raindrops. If OKX switched their radar to tropical mode, they probably have reason to do it, because it was UNDERdoing precipitation, due to droplet size! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 What? It's clearing out over the Delmarva/Southern NJ. They will probably be able to see the sun set. I wouldn't be surprised to see brightening skies (might not clear out, but the rain will be over soon) up in our region in a few hours. Look off the coast. Precipitation is moving NW, not N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Look off the coast. Precipitation is moving NW, not N. I see the radar, but if you watch visible satellite loop of the region you will notice serious dry air intrusion coming in from the southwest as that "next" batch attempts to rotate in. IMO, it won't make it. Eastern Long Island is a different story. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I see the radar, but if you watch visible satellite loop of the region you will notice serious dry air intrusion coming in from the southwest as that "next" batch attempts to rotate in. IMO, it won't make it. Eastern Long Island is a different story. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't bank on it. 3 to 1 odds that you're wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Nice downpour and a crack of thunder here in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I see the radar, but if you watch visible satellite loop of the region you will notice serious dry air intrusion coming in from the southwest as that "next" batch attempts to rotate in. IMO, it won't make it. Eastern Long Island is a different story. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't bank on it. Look at this moist flow on this water vapor loop. It's bending back towards Northern Mid-Atlantic, than towards New England, right now: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/anim8wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 it's not going to matter, very intense area of heavy rain now developing almost right over the city and heading into NJ. Estimates are already apporaching 1.5" per hour and going up by the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Up to 0.70" for the day, storm total since Sunday, 2.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Look at this moist flow on this water vapor loop. It's bending back towards Northern Mid-Atlantic, than towards New England, right now: http://www.meteo.psu...US/anim8wv.html We saw the same backing flow yesterday and each round of precip (outside of the one moving through the early morning) had dissipated or moved east before arriving. I'd expect the same to happen today, based on the trends of this system. It's wrapping a lot of moisture into the area, yes, but it's also entraining dry air at the same time... essentially this system is wringing itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Honestly just let the think what he wants to think, that new band near the Delmarva is going to end up nowhere near eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I am getting a very heavy downpour now here in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Honestly just let the think what he wants to think, that new band near the Delmarva is going to end up nowhere near eastern LI. I was just responding to posts with my own observations which are in apparent disagreement. No weeniesm involved. But as it were, I won't post again until this evolves out. I won't look for any acknowledgement thereafter either. Just have been saying my piece, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I thought it was hailing (HUGE raindrops) but there's no hail on the ground. I'm in NE Queens. Edit: Now there's thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Absolutely pouring here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Knew this was coming Flash Flood Warning FLASH FLOOD WARNINGNJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC085-182230-/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0003.110518T1936Z-110518T2230Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY336 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...* UNTIL 630 PM EDT...* AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDFLASH FLOODING FROM AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THEWARNED AREA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREAFROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES ANHOUR ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THISEVENING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THEROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSSSAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAYYOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN UPTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I'd say the current batch moving through lifts through the area and is pretty much out of here (at least west of the city) by 5pm. Will have to see if the next batch makes it, misses us or dies out altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 New this was coming Flash Flood Warning FLASH FLOOD WARNINGNJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC085-182230-/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0003.110518T1936Z-110518T2230Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDFLASH FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY336 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...* UNTIL 630 PM EDT...* AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDFLASH FLOODING FROM AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THEWARNED AREA. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREAFROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES ANHOUR ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THISEVENING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THEROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSSSAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAYYOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN UPTON ugghh.. I have to drive down 287 to East Hanover in about an hour. That should be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Up to 1.07" for the day, 2.67" storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 pouring w thunder in central nassau. yay. rain sucks, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Absolutely ripping rain drops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Because it was awful. Your post shows the folly of going by stats alone. Cloud cover, excessive and frequent rains, and high morning lows skewed the numbers. In reality, it was a generally cool, raw, and wet spring. Forget the stats -- talk to people and they will tell you how bad this spring has been. Went into the local pool shop the other day and they say this is the worst April and May in 25 years for them as no one is thinking pools and swimming. this...as someone who works outside for the past 20 years or so I would rate this spring definitely in the bottom 10 not top 10 of those 20 years. Alot of rain and a ton of cloudy days. A few really warm departures skewed the numbers a bit and yes morning lows were not all that bad because of cloud cover. I just would have a hard time saying this was a nice spring. Yes last year was ridiculously warm but other years have seen more springtime stretches. Thank god for last weeks nice stretch because without that we really had very little nice days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Absolutely prolific rainfall rates right now in Union and Essex counties. 50-55 dbz: http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Had some heavy downpours from that band earlier, now it appears to have moved north of here. Let's see what comes of that second band moving northward from the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Looks like band is breaking up a little and NYC and LI will be spared the super heavy rains that NJ is receiving. Also that other band in ocean looking weaker and weaker. Shades ftw? The extreme tail end of the 1st batch remains strong. If it hold, that the band that will impact NYC and LI the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 most of the weather stations in that area show rainfall rates of around .75 an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Knew this was coming you and a million other weenies. As AG3 states, that line is losing its punch. Your three inch an hour rates are a pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The 18z NAM simulated radar says more bands make it in here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 you and a million other weenies. As AG3 states, that line is losing its punch. Your three inch an hour rates are a pipe dream. maybe down in your neck of the woods, which I could care less about, I'm under a flash flood warning and its literally pouring here. If you've watched the line evolove like I have, as one area weakens, another fires up. The band over NJ has really intensified over the past hour. I would call you a but that would be a step up for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The 18z NAM simulated radar says more bands make it in here tonight. Where? 18z NAM barely has .25" of rain thru hour 24. Its obviously already wrong though as areas are getting pounded with a lot more right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I tried to find that block button but I couldn't, it should be easily identified with a symbol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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