Snowlover11 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Its gonna rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 rainfall rates are now close to 3" per hour within the heaviest part of the band, if thats not significant I don't know what is thats pretty common in summer t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Coming down in sheets right now but no thunder or lightning to speak of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 rainfall rates are now close to 3" per hour within the heaviest part of the band, if thats not significant I don't know what is you're not going to see 3 inches in one hour from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 thats pretty common in summer t-storms. It might be for a short period of time, take a look at the 1 hr rainfall total loop, the area over 1" per hour is massive. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N1P&rid=OKX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 you're not going to see 3 inches in one hour from this. thats what is currently being estimated on radar, and that doesn't lie, it may be overdone a bit, but its not exactly a quick hitting passing storm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 There is another band developing now about an hour south of the big one, its going to be a wet night. It would appear, that none of the models had a very good handeling on what were about to receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 There is another band developing now about an hour south of the big one, its going to be a wet night. It would appear, that none of the models had a very good handeling on what were about to receive. This really dosent strike me as that impressive, sure some areas of heavier rain but nothing crazy. http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This really dosent strike me as that impressive, sure some areas of heavier rain but nothing crazy. http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no Its not, and today really wont be that much different than anything else we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This really dosent strike me as that impressive, sure some areas of heavier rain but nothing crazy. http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no The radar out of Upton seems to be alot more impressed with the rainfall rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The radar out of Upton seems to be alot more impressed with the rainfall rates Looks like they havent switched the radar into the summer scheme, therefore its overestimating rainfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 A lot of it is missing to west already for NYC and LI. We'll definitely get rain, but it looks like NJ will get the most this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 A lot of it is missing to west already for NYC and LI. We'll definitely get rain, but it looks like NJ will get the most this time. Check out that tail of precip extending toward the bottom. That's our precip extender. I Think it will last a decent amount of time barring any catastrophic collapse of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Insane bands coming I'n off the ocean, I'n down at the port I'n elizabeth and it's raining extremely hard, much more to come...awesome stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Looks like they havent switched the radar into the summer scheme, therefore its overestimating rainfall rates. Totally wrong! They wouldn't switch it like that for no reason. They switch it to tropical mode if the drops are smaller, so that the radar estimates CORRECTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 We shall see, flood advisory now in affect for MBY. My gauge on how much rain we get will be how quickly the river rises and how much it rises. My guess is, this will be enough to push it over flood stage, were already on the door step of caution stage and the grounds completely saturated so almost all of it should runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Totally wrong! They wouldn't switch it like that for no reason. They switch it to tropical mode if the drops are smaller, so that the radar estimates CORRECTLY. thanks, I figured the estimates were not that far off but there does seem to be some differences between Mt. Holly and Upton. Significant ones. The heavy rain has just begun here in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Check out that tail of precip extending toward the bottom. That's our precip extender. I Think it will last a decent amount of time barring any catastrophic collapse of the precip shield. Yeah agreed. Tail end is ours and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Totally wrong! They wouldn't switch it like that for no reason. They switch it to tropical mode if the drops are smaller, so that the radar estimates CORRECTLY. ok thats what I said? KDIX radar estimates look much more reasonable than OKX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 alot of rampant weenie ism in this thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 oh well.. briefly touched 70 here, but temps are crashing back into the mid 60's with an ominous looking sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This band is eerily reminiscent of the one that moved through last night around midnight, albeit a little more robust. I don't think it sits over any one location for a particular long time, has a pronounced northward movement even with the embedded training cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This is best convection I've seen off the coast this week. I think we are looking at more heavy bouts of rain through the evening hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This band is eerily reminiscent of the one that moved through last night around midnight, albeit a little more robust. I don't think it sits over any one location for a particular long time, has a pronounced northward movement even with the embedded training cells. there is more behind it, lots more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 alot of rampant weenie ism in this thread.... this post included...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Even if we haven't seen any truly impressive, extended periods of heavy rain, it starts to add up when you get multiple days of downpours. Here's what we've recorded here in Westchester: May 18 (today): 0.24" May 17: 1.20" May 16: 0.01" May 15: 0.76" May 14: 0.01" Total rainfall: 2.22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 This is best convection I've seen off the coast this week. I think we are looking at more heavy bouts of rain through the evening hours: If you loop it, you would notice that much of that is not going to come ashore... certainly not NJ/NY, perhaps clipping eastern LI tonight (where I think the most consistent heavy rains will fall through tonight). Otherwise, the northern/western shield of that inflow is progressively rotating through... it will not rain all night, should be over in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 If you loop it, you would notice that much of that is not going to come ashore... certainly not NJ/NY, perhaps clipping eastern LI tonight (where I think the most consistent heavy rains will fall through tonight). Otherwise, the northern/western shield of that inflow is progressively rotating through... it will not rain all night, should be over in a couple hours. not sure what your looking at, but there is another area of mod/hvy rain about to enter south Jersey and the Delmarva again, basically moving over the same areas that the big band just departed. Not sure if that will make it far enough east to hit the city, but points west will likely get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 not sure what your looking at, but there is another area of mod/hvy rain about to enter south Jersey and the Delmarva again, basically moving over the same areas that the big band just departed. Not sure if that will make it far enough east to hit the city, but points west will likely get it. What? It's clearing out over the Delmarva/Southern NJ. They will probably be able to see the sun set. I wouldn't be surprised to see brightening skies (might not clear out, but the rain will be over soon) up in our region in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 What? It's clearing out over the Delmarva/Southern NJ. They will probably be able to see the sun set. I wouldn't be surprised to see brightening skies (might not clear out, but the rain will be over soon) up in our region in a few hours. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dix&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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