IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 That band down off the Jersey shore is looking pretty healthy, and its growing in width. It has a large area of 0.5" per hour rates with it. If this makes it all the way up here we could get a quick 2-3" in spots and that would be a real problem. Almost has the look to of it an outer band of a hurricane. I wonder if some of these storms have a chance of producing a few short lived tornados. SPC does have NJ on SW in a 2% risk area and there are a few tornado warnings out over the mid-atlantic where the shear profiles are stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 12z GFS has .75"-1" total thru tomorrow night, with 90% of it falling today. Eastern LI is over 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 12z GFS has .75"-1" total thru tomorrow night, with 90% of it falling today. Eastern LI is over 1.25" yeah it almost looks like it wants to miss us with that convection off the Delmarva and I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Because it was awful. Your post shows the folly of going by stats alone. Cloud cover, excessive and frequent rains, and high morning lows skewed the numbers. In reality, it was a generally cool, raw, and wet spring. Forget the stats -- talk to people and they will tell you how bad this spring has been. Went into the local pool shop the other day and they say this is the worst April and May in 25 years for them as no one is thinking pools and swimming. I guess it depends on your location. It has not been awful here at all. The coast has struggled mightily compared to the stats alone--but they are pretty solid here. Last spring was warmer, with a warmer average temperature, but this spring has also been slightly above average....I have no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Off topic given what's currently transpiring...but there's some increasing signals for the first real torch of the year around Day 7-10. The Euro and global super ensembles are really beaming a warm signal..the GEFS means at 12z have heights rising with a dramatic blocking breakdown. I'm pretty confident we will be very warm this time next week and into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/1km.php?loop=1&type=rad®ion=LongIsland&numimages=24 i think all of us will see heavy rain and thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 SREF has widespread convection by 2100z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Because it was awful. Your post shows the folly of going by stats alone. Cloud cover, excessive and frequent rains, and high morning lows skewed the numbers. In reality, it was a generally cool, raw, and wet spring. Forget the stats -- talk to people and they will tell you how bad this spring has been. Went into the local pool shop the other day and they say this is the worst April and May in 25 years for them as no one is thinking pools and swimming. I think this post has some merit to it, based on location. I get constant feedback on the weather on the south shore of Long Island in Suffolk Co. from family and they talk about how miserable it has been overall since spring started. Even looking at some stats, it plain to see the lack of sunny weather so far this spring. ISLIP in April... CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 0 PARTLY CLOUDY (SCALE 4-7) 14 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 16 ISLIP in May..... CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 0 PARTLY CLOUDY (SCALE 4-7) 10 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 7 Amazingly, during that same time period, Central Park has recorder 13 CLEAR (0-3) days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 my thinking is, flash flooding will be likely during the evening rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 That main precip shield has a WNW movement. It will definitely hit most of Jersey and most likely NYC. But there's a chance it will just scrape LI and even NYC. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 That main precip shield has a WNW movement. It will definitely hit most of Jersey and most likely NYC. But there's a chance it can just scrape LI and even NYC. We'll see. I suspect you will start to see cells develop over the ocean and come ashore and even consolidate into and ahead of the main precip shield for the LI NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 the high res wrf models bring it right through the region http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_ref_018l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/00/images/hiresw_ref_021l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 That line is an absolute beast, Jersey shore getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 That line is an absolute beast, Jersey shore getting hammered. Heavy downpours with some embedded thunder I'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 lightning detection is picking up on a lot of strikes offshore... the stuff hugging the jersey coast doesn't have quite so much, but definitely the stuff offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Big time light show just offshore http://www.strikestarus.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 lightning detection is picking up on a lot of strikes offshore... the stuff hugging the jersey coast doesn't have quite so much, but definitely the stuff offshore surprised with that water so cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Nearly 2" per hour rates now embedded within that band. If this holds together all bets are off on rain totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Nearly 2" per hour rates now embedded within that band. If this holds together all bets are off on rain totals. Yup. Areas in that batch will get dumped on, big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 It looks very ominous outside. As I'm typing this on my phone I see little rain drops, bad news for my recently (30 mins ago) waterlogged phone lol smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 If the precip shield holds we will all be in it over the next few hours. Earlier I thought the trajectory and size of the convection might miss NYC and points NE just to the southwest but the rain has expanded and the portion off shore has a more NNW movement to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Tornado warning issued now just northwest of Philly, I think its a component that has been somewhat forgotten today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Moderate to heavy rain falling here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Those high res models are so great, they have nearly no precip over northern central or southern northern NJ today No model is perfect but common, its pouring in that area right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Those thundstorms offshore are really beasting. Radar estimates reveal areas of 1.5-2+" an hour over a wide area that continues to develop northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Moderate to heavy rain falling here now. ditto... it is lifting slightly to the N so this band should steadily head N over the next few hours....i was kinda hoping it wouldnt budge N and just basically hammer us til nightime. doesnt look like the case though. still solid rains now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Upton sent out a special weather statement but its now retracted. Looks like we get some hvy rain for a few hrs, shouldnt be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 thas is one hell of a moisture feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 beautiful looking storm.....and big, covers alot of the EC east of the mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Upton sent out a special weather statement but its now retracted. Looks like we get some hvy rain for a few hrs, shouldnt be a big deal. rainfall rates are now close to 3" per hour within the heaviest part of the band, if thats not significant I don't know what is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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