famartin Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 There are valid points in those who say the spring has been aweful as during the month of April, at least, cloud cover was excessive. However, those who are simply comparing this spring to last spring are WAY off the mark. You can't do that. Last spring was the warmest ever. If you always compare subsequent springs to Spring 2010, you are likely to always be disappointed. And its always cooler at the coast than it is inland during the spring. Fact of life. Deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 LOL, too bad earthlights map doesnt do that, its both temps. Also, its not just the City that has had high low temps. Per my previous post, the whole area has had warm nights not because of UHI but because of the low clouds fog etc. This is true lol but low clouds and fog are not my idea of warmth either It's an admittedly subjective way of doing it, but I think judging warmth by high temp is closer to how the weather "feels" to us during the day. Of course, noreaster's idea about the sea breeze coming in and dropping temps off in the afternoon has merit too-- but we have to draw the line somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 our main precip event isn't going to look like a band off the ocean, it's going to develop overhead as isentropic lift increases later notice that the 2" amounts don't extend south over the ocean .....not a great showing by the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 There are valid points in those who say the spring has been aweful as during the month of April, at least, cloud cover was excessive. However, those who are simply comparing this spring to last spring are WAY off the mark. You can't do that. Last spring was the warmest ever. If you always compare subsequent springs to Spring 2010, you are likely to always be disappointed. And its always cooler at the coast than it is inland during the spring. Fact of life. Deal with it. Yup, I was thinking of this too-- we usually don't get any kind of real sustained warmth before Memorial Day weekend at the earliest. This spring wasn't record breaking cold or anything-- it's much closer to normal for us than last spring. The excessive rains are getting annoying, but it seems like that's part of the new climate around here. "Get used to it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 .....not a great showing by the NAM I think when things are all said and done, the NAM will have done a pretty good job. QPF totals will end up being close to the 3-5" that was predicted in most spots. I think it just doesn't seem like it becuase its been spread out over a few days. The ground is completely saturated and any training of thunderstorms later today will be capable of producing some localized flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I think when things are all said and done, the NAM will have done a pretty good job. QPF totals will end up being close to the 3-5" that was predicted in most spots. I think it just doesn't seem like it becuase its been spread out over a few days. The ground is completely saturated and any training of thunderstorms later today will be capable of producing some localized flooding. I agree, Im closing in on 2 inches for the whole event, and Im only 2 miles from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 .....not a great showing by the NAM Once again, the NAM huggers, who claimed that a higher resolution model was needed, will be schooled by the GFS. That's why I never went full bore on this event. The GFS was never all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Just took a quick look at the GFS, its showing between 5-10" of rain total for our region over its entire run. It has troughing over the east coast around Memorial Day weekend. Here I thought we were in pretty good shape to have a much nicer stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Once again, the NAM huggers, who claimed that a higher resolution model was needed, will be schooled by the GFS. That's why I never went full bore on this event. The GFS was never all in. In all fairness, the GFS and the Euro both had high amounts at certain times. Alot of us over in Jersey and those on LI did get and will get what was forecasted if not more. If there is a model to knock, I would say the RGEM is a good choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Just took a quick look at the GFS, its showing between 5-10" of rain total for our region over its entire run. It has troughing over the east coast around Memorial Day weekend. Here I thought we were in pretty good shape to have a much nicer stretch of weather. The pattern, as a whole, is going to be significantly warmer, but that won't stop shower and thunderstorm chances, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 In all fairness, the GFS and the Euro both had high amounts at certain times. Alot of us over in Jersey and those on LI did get and will get what was forecasted if not more. If there is a model to knock, I would say the RGEM is a good choice. The Euro was terrible as well. I never looked at the RGEM so I wouldn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The Euro was terrible as well. I never looked at the RGEM so I wouldn't know. It was spitting out widespread 6-8" totals at one point and was posted here. The SREF is another one that had numerous members yesterdays showing 8.0"+. I don't think anybody really thought we would see numbers like that but they were definitly showing a signal for heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 12z NAM has only .50"-.75" of rain thru 8am tomorrow morning for NYC, LI and Northern half of NJ. Only .25"-.50" for coastal Jersey and southern half of Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 12z NAM has only .50"-.75" of rain thru 8am tomorrow morning for NYC, LI and Northern half of NJ. Only .25"-.50" for coastal Jersey and southern half of Jersey. That's about what the 6z run had, it then gave us quite a bit more after that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 The 00z high res NAM on E-WALL (WRF) keeps us in the showers and thunderstorms through at least Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Looks like the latest NAM has backed off a bit, but then again earlier runs were counting the precip we have already gotten this morning so that could account for some of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 my storm total is 2.64" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 FWIW last nights ARW gave most of northern NJ 3-5" more through 48hrs after giving us only 1-2" through 24hrs so it seems as if there is some thought that we stay in the heavy stuff a bit longer than anticipated. Through 24 hrs Through 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 OKX: TSTMS LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AREA OFF DELMARVA LIFTS INTO NORTH JERSEY AND THEN PIVOTS NORTHEAST. 12Z OKX SOUNDING REVEALS NEARLY 800 J/KG OF MUCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 OKX: TSTMS LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AREA OFF DELMARVA LIFTS INTO NORTH JERSEY AND THEN PIVOTS NORTHEAST. 12Z OKX SOUNDING REVEALS NEARLY 800 J/KG OF MUCAPE. Yummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 i extrapolated an arrival time between 2 and 3 pm for the convection offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Very heavy rain right now in Brooklyn. It's coming down in buckets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 i extrapolated an arrival time between 2 and 3 pm for the convection offshore Per visible satellite, a lot of clearing skies ahead of that convection, at least from the city on east, ironically. Jersey is getting splattered with pop-up showers. As opposed to yesterday, I think most of the heaviest rain today will be there. Trajectory of the convection offshore also is pivoting/aiming more toward the southwest of Long Island. But it's really destabilizing everywhere today. Stepping outside you can really feel the tropical nature of this airmass as opposed to yesterday's coolish marine regime. More of a southeasterly component to the flow today, especially at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Very heavy rain right now in Brooklyn. It's coming down in buckets. Are there actual buckets falling? If so, you should report that to upton as it would be hillarious to see a storm report about buckets falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Suns out and its quite muggy out there.. i extrapolated an arrival time between 2 and 3 pm for the convection offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Upton would probably believe it. The sun is finally poking through the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 latest shows some weak instability working in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 You can see the heavy rain potential increasing this afternoon on the forecast soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 According to this, the heaviest rain falls this afternoon and tonight. Most of what falls after today should be on the lighter side. Looks like another 1-2" widespread is likely with a few isolated 2-3" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 sun is out here.. up to 64 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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