TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 this event has been a bust for 80-90% of the area so far.... bust meaning the huge totals not verifying...sure, it's been a lousy stretch, but much of the time has been rain free.... What do you define as the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Per a Mt. Holly met on the Philly forum, too early to dismiss the high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Those echos east and to the south of NYC/NJ alone can drop a good 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Those echos east and to the south of NYC/NJ alone can drop a good 1-2" I dont know about that, the ones out over the ocean aren't nearly as impressive as the ones this morning and the ones over jersey seem to be shrinking as they move north away from the best lift/moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I don't know, this is a tricky forecast. It's rained quite a bit in most areas all day so to say that the event was a total bust thus far over 80-90% of the area is not true. I don't think anybody has seen any crazy rainfall rates or totals thus far but to be honest, the simulated radars had been hinting all day that the rain wouldn't come in off the coast and instead develop overhead. Upton just put out a new storm total forecast less than an hour ago and actually upped the totals quite a bit everywhere so obviously they don't believe this is going to be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 nice band onshore from ocean and monmouth counties NW threw NJ...... pouring outside, heard a rumble..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 nice band onshore from ocean and monmouth counties NW threw NJ...... pouring outside, heard a rumble..... That band over CT is not moving an inch, and it looks like that band currently over southern northern NJ is going to be setting up shop over the city and NJ for several hours as new convection is developing in behind it and the northern progression slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 That band over CT is not moving an inch, and it looks like that band currently over southern northern NJ is going to be setting up shop over the city and NJ for several hours as new convection is developing in behind it and the northern progression slows down. springtime superbands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 That band over CT is not moving an inch, and it looks like that band currently over southern northern NJ is going to be setting up shop over the city and NJ for several hours as new convection is developing in behind it and the northern progression slows down. Ok you've done this twice today where you saw something on radar that wasn't there. Where do you see the northern progression slowing down? Why would it last several hours? And where is this so called convection you say is firing up behind the line? You mean that stuff east of Delaware? That's behind the line??? Check out this current radar map for the last hour (its's static it won't change with time) I see nothing of what you speak in this loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes the NE look shows the super band in CT....that looks juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Rain coming down heavy over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I just saw lightning (5-10 mins ago), no precip though. Edit: Okay now the lightning is sort of back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 INCOMING!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Ok you've done this twice today where you saw something on radar that wasn't there. Where do you see the northern progression slowing down? Why would it last several hours? And where is this so called convection you say is firing up behind the line? You mean that stuff east of Delaware? That's behind the line??? Check out this current radar map for the last hour (its's static it won't change with time) I see nothing of what you speak in this loop. I was speaking of more activity building south of LI, that line has expanded eastward a tad. Also, it was looking at the time like it was having trouble coming north but as of now its moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Here in central nassau getting pounded with that line of storms which is training over us. looks to be raining for quite sometime. cannot wait to go walk to the train... Had 1.15 inches of rain today, mostly in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Raining pretty hard right now.... up to 1.20 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 I have 1.90" for the event this far, just started to rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Had 0.50" prior to midnight, storm total since Sunday 1.60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 My thinking is, this thing has evolved into one big unpredicatable mess. I know these things are very hard to forecast, and this event has been no exception. I'm cautiously thinking most everyone sees another 1-2" with a few isolated areas picking up more. I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see anything that indicates a steady heavy rainfall setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 pretty vivid lightning strike just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 numerous thunder and lightning... ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Wow, long island is getting dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 this is the first time in this forum that i will write the word BUST.. i have not seen any rain here.. .today... i dont see how are we going to get the high totals really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Wow, long island is getting dumped on. Repeat that statement (with snow) in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 this is the first time in this forum that i will write the word BUST.. i have not seen any rain here.. .today... i dont see how are we going to get the high totals really You should probably add your location to your profile so we can see where you are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 latest obs: heavy rain, windy, lightning and thunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 this is the first time in this forum that i will write the word BUST.. i have not seen any rain here.. .today... i dont see how are we going to get the high totals really 1/3 of your posts have the word bust written in it, not a good start and the event isnt over, its a cutoff low, there will be periods of on and off rain/training..Its been discussed already that the bands will be convective and wont affect everyone..but whoever gets in on the consistent training will get more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Very heavy rainfall at the moment with that cell that moved in off the ocean. Looks like another one coming right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Dgex has 80's next week, the euro looks toasty in the medium/long range as well..Just gotta get thru this week I'm still wondering why people keep saying this spring has been awful. The last calander month has been more than 2 degrees above normal everywhere and more than 4 degrees above normal in Central NJ. People keep comparing it to last May as well, which comparatively wasn't all that anomalous either with the HPRCC maps indicative of monthly temperature departures around +4 in the city. The warmth was more widepsread to the north last year---as Southern New England has really suffered a major difference from last year...but the difference here has not been remarkable. The precipitation departures have been nearly opposite, on the other hand...but the temperature argument is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Sorry I forgot this was a new forum..I thought I was still on Eastern.. jeje.. My location is Union City, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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