TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I think this is better nowcasted. And I don't think the SREF mean is totally useless, since it's a mean ensemble of all the high-resolution models. the srefs are not hi res models. The NMM and ARW are hi res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 48 hour totals from 00z last nights Hi Res runs. I can hear noreaster85 crying that the heaviest rains are east of his area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 48 hour totals from 00z last nights Hi Res runs. I can hear noreaster85 crying that the heaviest rains are east of his area. current radar would indicate that the heaviest rain is not going to be over LI, but from the city westward into NE NJ. Someone with geographical enhancement probably sees the most rain with West Milford or someone in Orange County probably coming in ontop. Far Western LI looks to be getting in on some decent convection at the moment. This goes pretty well with Upton's QPF forecast, if they wanted to they could have shown a few spots exceeding 5.0" over the higher terrain like Mt. Holly sometimes does with snowfall amounts. All I said was that 8.0"+ was a possability for some folks, and if you count back from last Saturday, its a distinct possability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The Atlantic is open for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 the srefs are not hi res models. The NMM and ARW are hi res models. The SREF members , NMMs,ARWs,ETAs,RSMs, I believe are all at higher-res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 HPC also agrees that the heaviest rain today stays mostly west of the city. I wouldn't rule out more than one rainfall maxima anyway. If eastern LI gets hit this doesn't mean that NJ will not. As is often the case with organized lows, there are several bands of heavy precip located within a broader area of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Some parts of NJ have already gotten a ton of rain per radar estimates, and the main show is just beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 it's going to get hot after this event. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011051700!!/ loop this and watch the warm anomalies shift from the western atlantic to the NE... it reminds me of summer 1999 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The SREF members , NMMs,ARWs,ETAs,RSMs, I believe are all at higher-res. The srefs are Meso Scale models but not hi resolution. Don't confuse the ensemble members of the ARW and NMM used in the sref mean for the actual hi resolution OP NMM and ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Based on this, the axis of heaviest rainfall may need to be shifted a tad further south and west http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=DOX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Based on this, the axis of heaviest rainfall may need to be shifted a tad further south and west http://radar.weather...id=DOX&loop=yes not based on this http://classic.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=0.750&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=NCR&lat=40.84149170&lon=-73.28043365&label=Commack,%20NY&showstorms=0&map.x=397&map.y=240¢erx=445¢ery=244&lightning=0&smooth0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 not based on this http://classic.wunde...ls=1&rainsnow=0 Seriously, not sure what his radar is doing, but its clear that the best stuff today is the city on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Looks like just north of the city and eventually into sw ct will get in on the heavy band of rain. Seems everything coming offshore to my east is weakning before it gets to me...feels very tropical outside. .22 in the last 24....not at a inch for the event yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 not based on this http://classic.wunde...ls=1&rainsnow=0 The radar image I posted was the long range out of Dover Air Force Base. While parts of LI are getting dumped on, you can see the main area of precip organizing off the Delmarva which will be coming onshore over the next several hours. Everyone is forecast to get 2.5"+ so it shouldn't be suprising to see heavy rain located outside of the area forecasted to see the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The radar image I posted was the long range out of Dover Air Force Base. While parts of LI are getting dumped on, you can see the main area of precip organizing off the Delmarva which will be coming onshore over the next several hours. Everyone is forecast to get 2.5"+ so it shouldn't be suprising to see heavy rain located outside of the area forecasted to see the most. Look again. The returns that could get to your part of jersey are very light and actually breaking up as opposed to the stuff over the ocean in the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Heaviest rain is certainly city on east. Training is set up right over NYC and Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Heaviest rain is certainly city on east. Training is set up right over NYC and Nassau County. How are the roads down there? BQE and FDR must be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Yeah.....your not looking at the same image I am, the stuff moving in off the Jersey shore is breaking up while the bands further south are intensifying. Everyone is going to see periods of heavy rain today. Even looking at the Mt. Holly radar, you can see how once that band of convection over western LI comes through, the banding shifts a tad south and west. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Observing radar trends properly (through regional composites, rather than individual sites) suggests that the heaviest rain for our area is consolidating as some have been saying (and as hi-res models have been pointing out) from the city on eastward. NJ will not get as much rain today. Nassau county looks to be the area where training of cells within a situated band is being realized in greatest potential. Below is a link to a good radar composite, you can see the heavy rain offshore is consolidating within the band that is pushing ashore through central Long Island, not NJ. If anything, there seems to be some subsidence which is precluding the heaviest rain from making it into NJ, possibly being depleted by the heavier banding over Long Island - which is where the heaviest cells/precip shield seems to be focusing per radar and the more reliable guidance for systems with such tropical inflow. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/necompflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Observing radar trends properly (through regional composites, rather than individual sites) suggests that the heaviest rain for our area is consolidating as some have been saying (and as hi-res models have been pointing out) from the city on eastward. NJ will not get as much rain today. Nassau county looks to be the area where training of cells within a situated band is being realized in greatest potential. Below is a link to a good radar composite, you can see the heavy rain offshore is consolidating within the band that is pushing ashore through central Long Island, not NJ. If anything, there seems to be some subsidence which is precluding the heaviest rain from making it into NJ, possibly being depleted by the heavier banding over Long Island - which is where the heaviest cells/precip shield seems to be focusing per radar and the more reliable guidance for systems with such tropical inflow. http://tempest.aos.w...ecompflash.html There is only one person here who thinks that NJ will be jack potted today but your analysis is spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Observing radar trends properly (through regional composites, rather than individual sites) suggests that the heaviest rain for our area is consolidating as some have been saying (and as hi-res models have been pointing out) from the city on eastward. NJ will not get as much rain today. Nassau county looks to be the area where training of cells within a situated band is being realized in greatest potential. Below is a link to a good radar composite, you can see the heavy rain offshore is consolidating within the band that is pushing ashore through central Long Island, not NJ. If anything, there seems to be some subsidence which is precluding the heaviest rain from making it into NJ, possibly being depleted by the heavier banding over Long Island - which is where the heaviest cells/precip shield seems to be focusing per radar and the more reliable guidance for systems with such tropical inflow. http://tempest.aos.w...ecompflash.html respectfully disagree, the new NAM is running, let's see what it says. Seems early on it wants to dry slot us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Pouring with thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Yeah.....your not looking at the same image I am, the stuff moving in off the Jersey shore is breaking up while the bands further south are intensifying. Everyone is going to see periods of heavy rain today. Even looking at the Mt. Holly radar, you can see how once that band of convection over western LI comes through, the banding shifts a tad south and west. http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes respectfully disagree, the new NAM is running, let's see what it says. Seems early on it wants to dry slot us all. You honestly dont see on the radar you JUST posted that LI is jackpotted with super heavy rain today? The heaviest band is sitting right over LI and keeps on training in from the ocean. Of course, NJ will get rain today, but as of right now, city on east is getting pummeled; especially Nassau/Suffolk border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 There is only one person here who thinks that NJ will be jack potted today but your analysis is spot on! If I said that LI was going to get hit the hardest, you would say that NJ was going to get it far worse, seriously, you must be five years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The heaviest banding has clearly shifted east from just couple hours ago to over Western LI. Bronx and NE Queens are just getting grazed by convection moving SE to NW along that band: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Yeah.....your not looking at the same image I am, the stuff moving in off the Jersey shore is breaking up while the bands further south are intensifying. Everyone is going to see periods of heavy rain today. Even looking at the Mt. Holly radar, you can see how once that band of convection over western LI comes through, the banding shifts a tad south and west. http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes I agree, the area of rain east of ACY will eventually rotate into NJ and affect the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 You honestly dont see on the radar you JUST posted that LI is jackpotted with super heavy rain today? The heaviest band is sitting right over LI and keeps on training in through the ocean. Of course, NJ will get rain today, but as of right now, city on east is getting pummeled; especially Nassau/Suffolk border. you two like to take small portions of my overall posts and exaggerate them. As I said before, were all going to see periods of heavy rain today. The exact location of the heaviest stuff will be shifting as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 If I said that LI was going to get hit the hardest, you would say that NJ was going to get it far worse, seriously, you must be five years old. you keep saying the banding is going to shift to the s and w, and its not. Your backyard bias is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The heaviest banding has clearly shifted east from just couple hours ago to over Western LI. Bronx and NE Queens are just getting grazed by convection moving SE to NW along that band: look at a further zoomed out image of the radar, and can see the stuff way down south and how much further west it is as opposed to the stuff currently coming in through LI. The long range image out of Dover Air Force Base gives a better view of the rain consolidating into one big band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The heaviest banding has clearly shifted east from just couple hours ago to over Western LI. Bronx and NE Queens are just getting grazed by convection moving SE to NW along that band: how do you upload looped radars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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