Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion


tmagan

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

48 hour totals from 00z last nights Hi Res runs. I can hear noreaster85 crying that the heaviest rains are east of his area.

current radar would indicate that the heaviest rain is not going to be over LI, but from the city westward into NE NJ. Someone with geographical enhancement probably sees the most rain with West Milford or someone in Orange County probably coming in ontop. Far Western LI looks to be getting in on some decent convection at the moment.

This goes pretty well with Upton's QPF forecast, if they wanted to they could have shown a few spots exceeding 5.0" over the higher terrain like Mt. Holly sometimes does with snowfall amounts.

StormTotalQPFFcst.png

All I said was that 8.0"+ was a possability for some folks, and if you count back from last Saturday, its a distinct possability.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HPC also agrees that the heaviest rain today stays mostly west of the city. I wouldn't rule out more than one rainfall maxima anyway. If eastern LI gets hit this doesn't mean that NJ will not. As is often the case with organized lows, there are several bands of heavy precip located within a broader area of QPF.

94ewbg.gif

fill_94qwbg.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The SREF members , NMMs,ARWs,ETAs,RSMs, I believe are all at higher-res.

The srefs are Meso Scale models but not hi resolution. Don't confuse the ensemble members of the ARW and NMM used in the sref mean for the actual hi resolution OP NMM and ARW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like just north of the city and eventually into sw ct will get in on the heavy band of rain. Seems everything coming offshore to my east is weakning before it gets to me...feels very tropical outside.

.22 in the last 24....not at a inch for the event yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The radar image I posted was the long range out of Dover Air Force Base. While parts of LI are getting dumped on, you can see the main area of precip organizing off the Delmarva which will be coming onshore over the next several hours. Everyone is forecast to get 2.5"+ so it shouldn't be suprising to see heavy rain located outside of the area forecasted to see the most.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The radar image I posted was the long range out of Dover Air Force Base. While parts of LI are getting dumped on, you can see the main area of precip organizing off the Delmarva which will be coming onshore over the next several hours. Everyone is forecast to get 2.5"+ so it shouldn't be suprising to see heavy rain located outside of the area forecasted to see the most.

Look again. The returns that could get to your part of jersey are very light and actually breaking up as opposed to the stuff over the ocean in the main line.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah.....your not looking at the same image I am, the stuff moving in off the Jersey shore is breaking up while the bands further south are intensifying. Everyone is going to see periods of heavy rain today.

Even looking at the Mt. Holly radar, you can see how once that band of convection over western LI comes through, the banding shifts a tad south and west.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Observing radar trends properly (through regional composites, rather than individual sites) suggests that the heaviest rain for our area is consolidating as some have been saying (and as hi-res models have been pointing out) from the city on eastward. NJ will not get as much rain today. Nassau county looks to be the area where training of cells within a situated band is being realized in greatest potential. Below is a link to a good radar composite, you can see the heavy rain offshore is consolidating within the band that is pushing ashore through central Long Island, not NJ. If anything, there seems to be some subsidence which is precluding the heaviest rain from making it into NJ, possibly being depleted by the heavier banding over Long Island - which is where the heaviest cells/precip shield seems to be focusing per radar and the more reliable guidance for systems with such tropical inflow.

http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/necompflash.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Observing radar trends properly (through regional composites, rather than individual sites) suggests that the heaviest rain for our area is consolidating as some have been saying (and as hi-res models have been pointing out) from the city on eastward. NJ will not get as much rain today. Nassau county looks to be the area where training of cells within a situated band is being realized in greatest potential. Below is a link to a good radar composite, you can see the heavy rain offshore is consolidating within the band that is pushing ashore through central Long Island, not NJ. If anything, there seems to be some subsidence which is precluding the heaviest rain from making it into NJ, possibly being depleted by the heavier banding over Long Island - which is where the heaviest cells/precip shield seems to be focusing per radar and the more reliable guidance for systems with such tropical inflow.

http://tempest.aos.w...ecompflash.html

There is only one person here who thinks that NJ will be jack potted today but your analysis is spot on!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Observing radar trends properly (through regional composites, rather than individual sites) suggests that the heaviest rain for our area is consolidating as some have been saying (and as hi-res models have been pointing out) from the city on eastward. NJ will not get as much rain today. Nassau county looks to be the area where training of cells within a situated band is being realized in greatest potential. Below is a link to a good radar composite, you can see the heavy rain offshore is consolidating within the band that is pushing ashore through central Long Island, not NJ. If anything, there seems to be some subsidence which is precluding the heaviest rain from making it into NJ, possibly being depleted by the heavier banding over Long Island - which is where the heaviest cells/precip shield seems to be focusing per radar and the more reliable guidance for systems with such tropical inflow.

http://tempest.aos.w...ecompflash.html

respectfully disagree, the new NAM is running, let's see what it says. Seems early on it wants to dry slot us all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah.....your not looking at the same image I am, the stuff moving in off the Jersey shore is breaking up while the bands further south are intensifying. Everyone is going to see periods of heavy rain today.

Even looking at the Mt. Holly radar, you can see how once that band of convection over western LI comes through, the banding shifts a tad south and west.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

respectfully disagree, the new NAM is running, let's see what it says. Seems early on it wants to dry slot us all.

You honestly dont see on the radar you JUST posted that LI is jackpotted with super heavy rain today? The heaviest band is sitting right over LI and keeps on training in from the ocean. Of course, NJ will get rain today, but as of right now, city on east is getting pummeled; especially Nassau/Suffolk border.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah.....your not looking at the same image I am, the stuff moving in off the Jersey shore is breaking up while the bands further south are intensifying. Everyone is going to see periods of heavy rain today.

Even looking at the Mt. Holly radar, you can see how once that band of convection over western LI comes through, the banding shifts a tad south and west.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

I agree, the area of rain east of ACY will eventually rotate into NJ and affect the entire area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You honestly dont see on the radar you JUST posted that LI is jackpotted with super heavy rain today? The heaviest band is sitting right over LI and keeps on training in through the ocean. Of course, NJ will get rain today, but as of right now, city on east is getting pummeled; especially Nassau/Suffolk border.

you two like to take small portions of my overall posts and exaggerate them. As I said before, were all going to see periods of heavy rain today. The exact location of the heaviest stuff will be shifting as the day goes on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If I said that LI was going to get hit the hardest, you would say that NJ was going to get it far worse, seriously, you must be five years old.

you keep saying the banding is going to shift to the s and w, and its not. Your backyard bias is laughable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The heaviest banding has clearly shifted east from just couple hours ago to over Western LI. Bronx and NE Queens are just getting grazed by convection moving SE to NW along that band:

look at a further zoomed out image of the radar, and can see the stuff way down south and how much further west it is as opposed to the stuff currently coming in through LI.

The long range image out of Dover Air Force Base gives a better view of the rain consolidating into one big band.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...