winterwarlock Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Poor warlock is getting poured on. While im mulching in the mist. Glad the rain is to my west more like cutting in the downpour. Got 11 lawns in. Had a huge downpour that lasted 10 minutes but we were right in the middle of it so we trudged on. Figure today is going to be the driest day. Constant mist most of the day, just cut the lawns a bit higher, some mess left but it aint going to get any drier and the grass is not going to get shorter, have to do what you have to do. Going to try and sneak in some cuts over the next two days if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 more like cutting in the downpour. Got 11 lawns in. Had a huge downpour that lasted 10 minutes but we were right in the middle of it so we trudged on. Figure today is going to be the driest day. Constant mist most of the day, just cut the lawns a bit higher, some mess left but it aint going to get any drier and the grass is not going to get shorter, have to do what you have to do. Going to try and sneak in some cuts over the next two days if possible. I would think you have a mobile app for the radar no? If I worked outside I would be checking that thing every 10 minutes on a day like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Some coastal flooding reports coming in from Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 new srefs dont budge - 21z arw members are extremely bullish lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 This is not a setup for spectral models or smoothed ensembles/means. With streamers of convection rotating in from the ocean, I think the meso models are far better to use. That SREF image may be right in spots, but I certainly don't expect such a large area of intense rainfall as it shows. One has to follow the s/w trofs as they rotate around the upper gyre. That is a difficult task at best and one that likely has the guidance shifting with each sounding run. The WRF clearly is superior with its sfc depiction of the boundary near the coast vice the GFS. The MAV temps, which the NWS bit on more than a few times the past couple of days, has been awful near the coast for high temps. OKX woke up to that today and ran the 2m nam temps and its MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 look out E LI and CT : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 Look how far the southerly winds extend up in the atmosphere with respect to the 00Z Tuesday KOKX RAOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 SREFs signaling a severe weather threat away from the coast on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 most of the heavy rains this week will be west of the city. Hmmm that's weird, I saw forecasts of 3+ inches of a steady heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Some coastal flooding reports coming in from Queens. We were under a coastal flood warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 looks like an area of moderate rain should be moving into the NYC area and portions of southern and central coastal NJ within the next two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 A heavy downpour just moved through here with more heavy rains lining up to the south of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Radar is absolutely loaded with heavy bands sweeping I'n off the ocean. Heavy rain and strong NE winds currently down In port elizabeth NJ...going to be an exciting day indeed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Thunderstorm ripping thru Floral Park......Heavy Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 You can see what Dark Energy is talking about. The precip is not uniform, its far more banded and tropical in nature, thus the whole area will not see crazy amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Thunderstorm ripping thru Floral Park......Heavy Rain Just had the same thing here In Woodside too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 You can see what Dark Energy is talking about. The precip is not uniform, its far more banded and tropical in nature, thus the whole area will not see crazy amounts. yup...those calling for 8 inches amounts will severely bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Just had very heavy rain and loud thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 yup...those calling for 8 inches amounts will severely bust Well, I only saw one person calling for 8, so thats not surprising, also note that the bands move through pretty quick with breaks in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Here in central nassau getting pounded with that line of storms which is training over us. looks to be raining for quite sometime. cannot wait to go walk to the train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Absolute deluge out there. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Well, I only saw one person calling for 8, so thats not surprising, also note that the bands move through pretty quick with breaks in between. Training looks like it's setting up right over NYC and LI, off the ocean. Nassau and NYC has .50"-.75"+ since only 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Good view of the h5 set up and ongoing omega block. trough west, ridge middle, trough/closed low east: http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/phi3D/500/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Training looks like it's setting up right over NYC and LI, off the ocean. Nassau and NYC has .50"-.75"+ since only 4am. You're gonna need a bigger boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The heaviest bands this morning were a compromise between the 6z west GFS and east NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Good view of the h5 set up and ongoing omega block. trough west, ridge middle, trough/closed low east: http://einstein.atmo...oldy/phi3D/500/ That's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Pouring here Take your pick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The heaviest bands this morning were a compromise between the 6z west GFS and east NAM. I think this is better nowcasted. And I don't think the SREF mean is totally useless, since it's a mean ensemble of all the high-resolution models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Some nasty looking cells incoming for central nassau to western suffolk it seems...i have to have over an inch by now, that line has been training overhead for hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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