IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 check out upton's map for the next 48 hours-- 3-4 inches plus for most areas http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php looks about right, some areas in NJ probably see over what they have forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 You can see the deep moisture feed developing now along the East Coast. The 15z SREF's are coming in even wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 You can see the deep moisture feed developing now along the East Coast. The 15z SREF's are coming in even wetter. 8.0" + Is definitily a real possability. If that falls over eastern NJ most of the Passaic River basin probably reaches record flooding with major flooding on the Passaic itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 jesus seems every year around now we usually get big rain makers, poor new jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 No one is seeing 8+ inches. Models having tough time with the tropical like feed on this thing. 4-5 yes, not 8 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 No one is seeing 8+ inches. Models having tough time with the tropical like feed on this thing. 4-5 yes, not 8 plus. depends on what you are counting--event total going back to yesterday maybe, especially since parts of NJ are at 2-3 inches already--if for one day, I'd agree, no one is getting 8 in one day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 depends on what you are counting--event total going back to yesterday maybe, especially since parts of NJ are at 2-3 inches already--if for one day, I'd agree, no one is getting 8 in one day... going forward from here. Srefs are on crakc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 depends on what you are counting--event total going back to yesterday maybe, especially since parts of NJ are at 2-3 inches already--if for one day, I'd agree, no one is getting 8 in one day... Yeah, not 8" widespread, but portions of NW NJ have already exceeded 3-4" for the event, with another 3-4" likely over the next 48 hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see some scattered stations surpassing 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Miserable gloomy day CNJ northward. Ended up several degrees+ shy of the fcst highs; currently 59F with a thicker fog settling in. NE wind at 2mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I also highly doubt 8 inches will fall anywhere, but it could happen...especially with training convection. Not likely, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I'm sticking with what I said earlier, 4-6" with isolated higher amounts. Take the SREF's for what they are worth. Storm totals if you count back from Saturday could easily exceed 6" in parts of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 FWIW, HPC now has us at 5.0" average just from days 1-3 and slight risked for excessive rainfall for both day 1 and day 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Don't underestimate set-ups with a tropical connection; they're notorious overperformers. Our SE flow originates in the Eastern Carrib over the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Don't underestimate set-ups with a tropical connection; they're notorious overperformers. Our SE flow originates in the Eastern Carrib over the next 48 hrs. Couldn't agree more, someone is going to get alot more rain than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I don't really care what happens as long as Memorial Day Weekend is nice. This bad weather can't last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 OKX latest QPF map. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 hope you love the dgex, even in spring and summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 winds are really picking up, much stronger than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 SREF has some pretty high thunderstorm probabilities coming in off the water overnight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 SREF has some pretty high thunderstorm probabilities coming in off the water overnight into tomorrow morning. Looks like the NYC thunderstorm shield holds strong for another day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Looks like the NYC thunderstorm shield holds strong for another day NYC doesn't exactly have zero probability per the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 17, 2011 Author Share Posted May 17, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Rain through 00Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Rain through 00Z Thursday. Highest precip totals right over noreaster85's house, thats what you get when you call for every storm to be the next armagedon, eventually you get what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Highest precip totals right over noreaster85's house, thats what you get when you call for every storm to be the next armagedon, eventually you get what you want. Give it a rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 There's some rain beginning to form off the coast to our south and east that looks to be turning toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 There's some rain beginning to form off the coast to our south and east that looks to be turning toward the coast. Upton hinted at that in there AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Upton hinted at that in there AFD Best view is from the delaware radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 There's some rain beginning to form off the coast to our south and east that looks to be turning toward the coast. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Good call. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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