forkyfork Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 another round of convection... the atmosphere must be saturated, since the heating has been meager so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Funny to see everything stay west of the city. Wonder how long this lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Funny to see everything stay west of the city. Wonder how long this lasts. most of the heavy rains this week will be west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 most of the heavy rains this week will be west of the city. Sounds good to me, Noreaster85 likes it more anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Temps dropping here in Monmouth. 57F and foggy with a NE wind now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 mist and drizzle here....I'm about 60 miles NE of NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Poor warlock is getting poured on. While im mulching in the mist. Glad the rain is to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Looks like this afternoon will be relatively "dry" as the showers west of the area move north. NAM has only about .05" through tonight with heavy stuff coming in after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Funny to see everything stay west of the city. Wonder how long this lasts. not long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Looks like this afternoon will be relatively "dry" as the showers west of the area move north. NAM has only about .05" through tonight with heavy stuff coming in after midnight. Yup, the SPC WRF doesn't have any more legit convection coming in until 34-36 hours (last nights 00z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Yup, the SPC WRF doesn't have any more legit convection coming in until 34-36 hours (last nights 00z run) Great, so what am I supposed to do until then, work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 wow, not often you see the sref mean this wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 It's super foggy, almost like a good chunk of April but much greener (and warmer and not windy). I know we got a little rain last night but no thunderstorms or downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 wow, not often you see the sref mean this wet whats more impressive is that 11 members have 5.0" or more somewhere in the Upton CWA with several members in excess of 8.0". Flood watches likely later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Near 80 in SNJ with sun breaking out. Meanwhile I'm getting foggier at 58F here in Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Looking at satellite, it appears skies are trying to clear from south to north. Hope it makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Looking at satellite, it appears skies are trying to clear from south to north. Hope it makes it here. Seriously, may try to hit the links late, would like it a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Seriously, may try to hit the links late, would like it a little warmer. If it makes it, temps should pop 10-15 degrees. Lets hope. Wanna go fishing after work before the atrocious weather keeps boat at dock, for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Looking at satellite, it appears skies are trying to clear from south to north. Hope it makes it here. going to be tough to get clearing with the backdoor front to our south and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 going to be tough to get clearing with the backdoor front to our south and west... Agreed, but even a few extra degrees would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 How much rain does the new Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Anybody know when this 'omega block' will break down and go to a more zonal flow,? How much rain does the new Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 How much rain does the new Euro show? 2-3" total or most of the area, underdone if you ask me and the euro is probly the worst model to use for qpf when the event is near. the slow moving nature of the rain/storms and training nature due to the cutoff will get alot areas over 4 or 5" imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 How much rain does the new Euro show? can you refer to models by 12z, 0z, etc, whenever you say the new "insert model here". Someone invevitably is going to say "did they change it upgrade it, etc. and sometimes there are paralel models running so new nam may actually mean a new model. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 2-3" total or most of the area, underdone if you ask me and the euro is probly the worst model to use for qpf when the event is near. the slow moving nature of the rain/storms and training nature due to the cutoff will get alot areas over 4 or 5" imo It's been showing 4-5" pretty consistently which is why I was asking. The GFS is similar in totals then. The NAM is a bit higher. Those numbers coming from an SREF mean scare me a bit, being as its a low res ensemble and the fact that the model scores well with regards to verification. I think most areas probably see 4-6" with isolated higher totals. Some areas in NJ have already seen over 3.0" according to dopplar radar estimates. New convection forming over Burlington County moving very slowly north. Should impact most of NJ during the evening rush hour or shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 can you refer to models by 12z, 0z, etc, whenever you say the new "insert model here". Someone invevitably is going to say "did they change it upgrade it, etc. and sometimes there are paralel models running so new nam may actually mean a new model. Thanks. my bad, pretty sure everyone knew what I meant though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 My parents in Ewing have had 0.76" since Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 My parents in Ewing have had 0.76" since Saturday. As of right now do you see long island getting into some of the heavy rain?.....we've escaped relatively unscathed compared to some areas in the surrounding region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 No suprises here... FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 325 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 ...FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW YORK CITY...AND FAIRFIELD COUNTY... CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-170830- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0007.110517T1000Z-110519T1000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS- 325 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...EASTERN BERGEN... EASTERN ESSEX...EASTERN PASSAIC...EASTERN UNION...HUDSON... WESTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX...WESTERN PASSAIC AND WESTERN UNION. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...BRONX...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...NORTHERN QUEENS...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER... ORANGE...PUTNAM...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...ROCKLAND... SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT * A NEARLY STATIONARY STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PUSH A CONSTANT STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND POCKETS OF CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE THE FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS FLOOD PRONE URBAN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 check out upton's map for the next 48 hours-- 3-4 inches plus for most areas http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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