earthlight Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 this upper level low's rainfall is starting to look more convective than synoptic...and if that's the case, we would be spared any overly significant rain totals. we shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 this upper level low's rainfall is starting to look more convective than synoptic...and if that's the case, we would be spared any overly significant rain totals. we shall see.. I am really suspicious of the HPC QPF map...it seems high to me. I think the bulk of the heavy synoptic rainfall is going to occur just north of the frontal boundary well to our north, in Upstate NY, extreme NNE, and parts of Quebec. These are the areas that could see 4"+ of rainfall. For the NYC metro, I expect sporadic showers/thunderstorms; it's just difficult to achieve massive widespread QPF totals with a surface low tracking to the west of the region. Warm sector precipitation tends not to be uniform enough to produce the QPF advertised by the HPC, and to some degree the 12z ECM. I do think we'll see some heavier stratiform rainfall as the ULL moves off to the northeast, probably on Thursday. But there should be a break on Wednesday, and only occasional showers tomorrow and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I am really suspicious of the HPC QPF map...it seems high to me. I think the bulk of the heavy synoptic rainfall is going to occur just north of the frontal boundary well to our north, in Upstate NY, extreme NNE, and parts of Quebec. These are the areas that could see 4"+ of rainfall. For the NYC metro, I expect sporadic showers/thunderstorms; it's just difficult to achieve massive widespread QPF totals with a surface low tracking to the west of the region. Warm sector precipitation tends not to be uniform enough to produce the QPF advertised by the HPC, and to some degree the 12z ECM. I do think we'll see some heavier stratiform rainfall as the ULL moves off to the northeast, probably on Thursday. But there should be a break on Wednesday, and only occasional showers tomorrow and Monday. Could not agree more. Tomorrow is kind of interesting, if some of the models are correct and the dry slot can allow for some clearing into NJ, there could be some stronger thunderstorms. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Could not agree more. Tomorrow is kind of interesting, if some of the models are correct and the dry slot can allow for some clearing into NJ, there could be some stronger thunderstorms. We shall see. I'm glad to hear someone shares my input...I've been mentioning this idea in the SNE forum, but they seem to side more towards the heavier totals shown by HPC and the ECM, rather than the GFS and our thinking. That could also be because a lot of SNE's terrain, especially the ORH hills, has an upslope component on E/SE winds which we'll see during this storm. That may add to rainfall totals for stations like MQE and ORH, as well as for places on the eastern side of the Catskills and Poconos like the Catskill Escapment, where rainfall could be enhanced orographically. The fact that this is a long-duration storm means that elevated areas may see more than the advertised QPF, with those frames of .01" or .1" really adding up for places with enhancement on an E/SE flow. 0z GFS doesn't show too much potential for clear skies tomorrow with around .1" QPF for each frame for NYC metro, except on eastern LI where the marine layer should inhibit any serious thunderstorms. Upton has added thunderstorms to the forecast, so we'll see. We've got a juicy synoptic trigger but surface-based instability may be limited in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... INCREASING THETA-E SUN. H2 JET ACROSS ERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE RR QUAD OVER THE CWA. KI INCREASES TO AROUND 33. FCST THEREFORE IS FOR SHRA AND TSTMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SFC BASED INSTABILITY RELEGATED TO THE NJ ZONES AND PORTIONS OF THE LWR HUDSON VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CAPE GENERALLY AOB 400 J/KG...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW IN THE LATE AFTN...ESPECIALLY IN NJ...WHERE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT MAY ALLOW FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND A BOOST IN SFC TEMPS. IF THIS HAPPENS...AN ISOLD STRONG CELL IS POSSIBLE IF THE WARMING ALOFT DOESN/T CAP THINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 I'm glad to hear someone shares my input...I've been mentioning this idea in the SNE forum, but they seem to side more towards the heavier totals shown by HPC and the ECM, rather than the GFS and our thinking. That could also be because a lot of SNE's terrain, especially the ORH hills, has an upslope component on E/SE winds which we'll see during this storm. That may add to rainfall totals for stations like MQE and ORH, as well as for places on the eastern side of the Catskills and Poconos like the Catskill Escapment, where rainfall could be enhanced orographically. The fact that this is a long-duration storm means that elevated areas may see more than the advertised QPF, with those frames of .01" or .1" really adding up for places with enhancement on an E/SE flow. 0z GFS doesn't show too much potential for clear skies tomorrow with around .1" QPF for each frame for NYC metro, except on eastern LI where the marine layer should inhibit any serious thunderstorms. Upton has added thunderstorms to the forecast, so we'll see. We've got a juicy synoptic trigger but surface-based instability may be limited in many areas. probably has something to do with their latitude too...they are much further north and closer to the front and better synoptic support for heavy rain. speaking of the convection, i just posted uptons discussion where they talk about the clearing and potential instability/storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 SPC WRF has the convection later tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 probably has something to do with their latitude too...they are much further north and closer to the front and better synoptic support for heavy rain. speaking of the convection, i just posted uptons discussion where they talk about the clearing and potential instability/storms. I just wonder if we'll get into this situation where we're stuck between the two sources of rain: heavy synoptic forcing to the north along the frontal boundary, and heavy convection to the south where there's more clearing and higher temperatures (WRF seems to be playing into this). It also depends greatly on the position of the warm front, which has been a point of disagreement between the GFS and NAM. The 0z NAM at 42 hours has the 10C 850mb contour running directly though NYC metro, whereas the 0z GFS at the same time has the 10C contour almost 100 miles to the NW of the City. The difference in the positioning of the warm front was even more remarkable on the 18z runs, especially over New England where the NAM had 10C 850s up to the Mass Pike whereas the GFS lifted them into North-Central VT/NH. Where the front sets up Monday could be the focal point for bouts of +RA, although it's almost assuredly going to be north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Last night definitely over performed here. Rained all night with two loud booms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 The rain was rather loud early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Picked up 0.60" of rain since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 JFK only had .05 last night, I am 2 miles away and had .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Loud, heavy rain here. Radar shows a tiny cell focused right over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 coastal flooding middle of the week? Onshore flow starts today and we have a full moon on wed The flow probably isn't going to be strong enough. There will be flooding but it wont be coming from the ocean lol. dont underestimate persistant SE flow and a lunar high tide. I think at least minor coastal flooding is likley by tuesday / wed. Upton, .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE NIGHT TIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...MODERATE BENCHMARKS COULD BE REACHED BY MID WEEK AS BOTH EASTERLY WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HEIGHTS INCREASE AS FULL MOON APPROACHES. IN THE MEANTIME...SWELLS FROM A PERSISTENT SE WIND...AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 JFK only had .05 last night, I am 2 miles away and had .50 How is that possible? Anybody have a loop of the radar from last night?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Euro 00z run is 5 inches for all us of us for the week......looks like tue-wed is more organized then this scattered action. .42 so far today.....will be interesting to see what i end up with by sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 How is that possible? Anybody have a loop of the radar from last night?? The best rains stayed west of Nassau and SE Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 The best rains stayed west of Nassau and SE Queens. I didn't think to use the wunderground storm total map. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 The best rains stayed west of Nassau and SE Queens. That would explain it and my station lines up very well with that map, 2 miles to my east and south had little to no rain while I had half an inch. http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYHOWAR4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Some breaks in the clouds working into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 That would explain it and my station lines up very well with that map, 2 miles to my east and south had little to no rain while I had half an inch. http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYHOWAR4 Yea I had heavy rains over night so I figured JFK would have gotten something similar as well. The rain on that map goes right over me in between the two bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Not going to be hard to find thunderstorms at 2100z today per the SREF. Makes sense with the clearing working into the area and potential for some boundary layer heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Not going to be hard to find thunderstorms at 2100z today per the SREF. Makes sense with the clearing working into the area and potential for some boundary layer heating. The clearing is taking it's time. Slow progress. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 The models from yesterday missed the heavier rains that fell in spots around the area this morning. This SREF forecast just runs through 0z Thursday and some of the members have 4+ inch maxes in spots that pick up the heaviest rains through then.It's not unusual for the models to underestimate rainfall totals associated with cutoff lows especially in the localities that see the heaviest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 62/62 right now in the park. Humid much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 4-5 inches of rain on the 12z euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 unlikely storms make it into nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Brightening up and getting very muggy here in CNJ. Temps low 70s and dews now 66-67. Feels tropical and ripe for convection later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 big work week ahead...what are the days that I will have the best chance of working all day and what are the days that will be most in peril. We can deal with nuisance rain/showers and work through it, its the deluges we cant deal with. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 15, 2011 Share Posted May 15, 2011 Sun is out now in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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