IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 I'm happy that I wasn't the first one or even close to being the first one to mention flooding as a big risk. It all depends on how fast it falls. We can handle 3-4" of rain over a two or three day period. 3-4" in one day would cause major flooding like it did in April. A scenario like the Euro shows would probably mean major flooding, but it would be slow to occur. 10" of rain would cause major flooding just about everywhere, including the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Floods for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 in my neck of the woods, BDR has only had .53 QPF since 4/25.... - These cutoff systems are tough-high bust potential on either end...usually it's a small area that gets nailed and very hard to pinpoint-almost becomes a nowcast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 dont underestimate persistant SE flow and a lunar high tide. I think at least minor coastal flooding is likley by tuesday / wed. Is it a rule on this board that if you have noreaster in your name you are morally obligated to honk for flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Is it a rule on this board that if you have noreaster in your name you are morally obligated to honk for flooding? Nobody here is honking for flooding, more or less just stating the obvious. When you look at the QPF outputs they all agree that the heaviest rain will be over an isolated area, but then again thats almost always the case. Northeast NJ, Weschester and the City look to be JP'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Nobody here is honking for flooding, more or less just stating the obvious. When you look at the QPF outputs they all agree that the heaviest rain will be over an isolated area, but then again thats almost always the case. Northeast NJ, Weschester and the City look to be JP'd. ECM has 1-2" here through Hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 ECM has 1-2" here through Hour 102. Apparantly the numbers went down from its 00z run or the heavier stuff is later in the period. HPC is going for a widespread 2.5"+ event right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 -NAO doing its thing, even in May. Lets hope it holds most of the summer so we can jackpot again next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 -NAO doing its thing, even in May. Lets hope it holds most of the summer so we can jackpot again next winter. The stretch of weather we are exiting is some of the best we've had in quite some time for that long of a stretch. Once this cutoff low get out of here we should be entering a more summer like pattern with less in the way of steady rain chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Nobody here is honking for flooding, more or less just stating the obvious. When you look at the QPF outputs they all agree that the heaviest rain will be over an isolated area, but then again thats almost always the case. Northeast NJ, Weschester and the City look to be JP'd. when you respond to a joke with a serious rebuttal, it's a pretty good indication you're a bag of sadness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 when you respond to a joke with a serious rebuttal, it's a pretty good indication you're a bag of sadness nah I'm good, life is great, recently engaged, big weekend planned. Its all good. Pissed off that its going to rain on Sunday when I will be at the Rutgers graduation but there's not much I can do about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 The Euro keeps the cut off around longer than the GFS next week over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 The flooding threat, if there is any, would likely be greatest around the 120+ hr period. That's assuming the models are handing the cutoff ULL correctly, which is highly unlikely in it's own right. But given the mid and low level flow being advertised on the DGEX and to some extent the 12z GFS, this would likely be a bit of a mess by next Wednesday. Hopefully this is all fantasy and it winds up 80 F and sunny forever. I agree. Heaviest rains would be sometime middle of next week for us, if the current models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Been a wonderful past few days. Clouds and rain will be the story much of this week. Already clouds and showers building into PA. Might not be till Friday before we can clear things out but hopeflly in time for a another great weekend. Sun breaking out here now but you can see what lies ahead on the radar by looking down stream. Ots of clouds and increasing chances forstorms and rain sat - thu or fri next week. Perhaps light at the end of the tunnel may mean a nice/wram memorial day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 You notice that Upton has a strong anti-thunderstorm bias like they usually do and at least ahead warm frontal there could some isolated elevated convention embedded with the heavy rains during midweek and maybe ahead of the cold front if we get into the warmer sector like the GFS hints there could be spotty showers or storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 You notice that Upton has a strong anti-thunderstorm bias like they usually do and at least ahead warm frontal there could some isolated elevated convention embedded with the heavy rains during midweek and maybe ahead of the cold front if we get into the warmer sector like the GFS hints there could be spotty showers or storms. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Sunday afternoon could turn out semi-okay away from the shore in the small warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 The real bad weather waits for the workweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 just when today looked like the best of today had passed, it finished very nice, expect very changeable weather this weekend. Hoping for some elevated boomers too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 just when today looked like the best of today had passed, it finished very nice, expect very changeable weather this weekend. Hoping for some elevated boomers too! Not according Upton with their anti-thunderstorm bias they have been having a good part of this spring. It can't be rule out in isolated spots especially late Sunday night into Tuesday and on hinted with some models when the heavy rains get in and some small instability maybe enough for few isolated thunderstorms to be embedded with the heavier rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 Not according Upton with their anti-thunderstorm bias they have been having a good part of this spring. It can't be rule out in isolated spots especially late Sunday night into Tuesday and on hinted with some models when the heavy rains get in and some small instability maybe enough for few isolated thunderstorms to be embedded with the heavier rains. Can you stop with this "anti-thunderstorm bias" crap? They are professional scientists doing their best to forecast and I can assure you they are not "anti-thunderstorm". Let us know when you solve all the mysteries and can do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 Not according Upton with their anti-thunderstorm bias they have been having a good part of this spring. It can't be rule out in isolated spots especially late Sunday night into Tuesday and on hinted with some models when the heavy rains get in and some small instability maybe enough for few isolated thunderstorms to be embedded with the heavier rains. It's not that they're anti-T-storm; the Upton CWA simply sucks for convective activity prior to June. Fact of the matter is, if I were working there I probably wouldn't put T-storms in the forecast either, until we were within 12 hours of the potential event and I knew it had a high probability of happening. I've heard maybe 2 or 3 rumbles of thunder so far this year in PA and NJ; honestly that's pretty much a typical spring. The cold ocean prevents most convection from really impacting the region, until late May or June, sometimes later, depends on the season. If Upton had a good meteorological reason to put storms in the forecast they would. I'm trying to think of a possible benefit to having an anti-T-storm agenda, but I don't believe Upton would receive any monetary profit from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 It's not that they're anti-T-storm; the Upton CWA simply sucks for convective activity prior to June. Fact of the matter is, if I were working there I probably wouldn't put T-storms in the forecast either, until we were within 12 hours of the potential event and I knew it had a high probability of happening. I've heard maybe 2 or 3 rumbles of thunder so far this year in PA and NJ; honestly that's pretty much a typical spring. The cold ocean prevents most convection from really impacting the region, until late May or June, sometimes later, depends on the season. If Upton had a good meteorological reason to put storms in the forecast they would. I'm trying to think of a possible benefit to having an anti-T-storm agenda, but I don't believe Upton would receive any monetary profit from that. This what you say makes sense and cold ocean does kill thunderstorms especially severe events in the most part and is difficult to forecast convention in the long range but in my area on LI so far this spring there has been a good 4 or 5 thunderstorm activity mainly all in April and plus the remarkable thundersleet event in late March that occured also. In a next few weeks when the blocking pattern breaks down and the area gets into a warmer pattern better shot for thunderstorms will happen especially when it gets toward Memorial Day into June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 14, 2011 Author Share Posted May 14, 2011 By early in the week, winds surface and aloft come in from the same direction nearly orthogonal to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 HPC going with nice healty amounts of 4-6" widespread. Expect the worst, hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 HPC going with nice healty amounts of 4-6" widespread. Expect the worst, hope for the best which is what the 00z euro has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 which is what the 00z euro has Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 12z euro is 3-4 inches of rain for the metro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 12z euro is 3-4 inches of rain for the metro..... When? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 14, 2011 Share Posted May 14, 2011 When? From sunday-thursday......looks like the bulk is monday-tuesday.....there is more rain after that, totals close to 5. Per euro we see sun back on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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