TheTrials Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Tropical cyclone at the end of the GFS run? Why don't you go down there and chase it make sure you go through the bermuda triangle while you are at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Why don't you go down there and chase it make sure you go through the bermuda triangle while you are at it. Personally I'm hoping it will turn into a catagory 10 hurricane and wipes out all forms of life east of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Personally I'm hoping it will turn into a catagory 10 hurricane and wipe out all forms of life east of the Mississippi I think most of us would be satisfied if it just hit you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 I think most of us would be satisfied if it just hit you. define most of us? I only here you running your mouth. On a rare occasion there are about 4 or 5 others that join you out of a forum with over a thousand members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 You gotta love it when the temp drops nearly 10 deg in one hour!!! ****ing sea breeze. The bodies of water surrounding the city need to warm the hell up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 You gotta love it when the temp drops nearly 10 deg in one hour!!! ****ing sea breeze. The bodies of water surrounding the city need to warm the hell up. You know it feels good out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 JUDGEMENT DAY MAY 21 2011 billboard outside yankee stadium says so Headed to the game tonight. First time at the new Stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Headed to the game tonight. First time at the new Stadium. couldn't ask for a better night for baseball. Maybe we can blame Boston for brining in the bad weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 12, 2011 Share Posted May 12, 2011 Headed to the game tonight. First time at the new Stadium. you'll see the billboard on the deegan. it is glorious. enjoy your last 9 days on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 amazing how consistant temps have been so far this month. Have we ever failed to reach 80 for the entire month of May before?? This will be very interesting.. with this blocky pattern and now headed into a cloudier and cooler regime, it'll be interesting when we hit 80 for a high again. May 1983,2003 and 2005 all failed to reach 80 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 May 1983,2003 and 2005 all failed to reach 80 degrees here. Going further back the list includes 1928, 1927, 1924 and 1915. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Going further back the list includes 1928, 1927, 1924 and 1915. LOL 1983, what a hot summer that was after a cool spring. That was a weird pattern of hot and yet rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Another beautiful springtime day in Southern Westchester, got the sweet corn (seeds) and white eggplants (transplants from Home Depot) in the ground. Have to go to bed now as work beckons early tomorrow, but it was a great afternoon/evening with comfortable temperatures and brisk southerly winds. High of 70.1F after a low of 51.5F, delicious. Tomorrow looks awesome with NWS predicting a high of 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 This weather sucks, give me 80's and thunderstorms please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 This weather sucks, give me 80's and thunderstorms please I with you on that but I rather have hold off until later this month into July then that is when our true severe weather season starts here. Hopefully this blocking pattern will end soon and we will more into warm humid pattern soon that would favor thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 This weather sucks, give me 80's and thunderstorms please Fine, ship me your weather for early next week and I'll ship you some 50s and chilly rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 From day 3 - day 8 on the 00z euro the entire area is jackpotted in 5-7" of rain..Cutoff low hangs around for days and produces waves of moisture. The pattern is really blocked up with the NAO continuing to stay negative for another week or 2 until it jumps positive towards the end of the month. i find it odd that the euro is so wet, the gfs has <2" of rain during the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 13, 2011 Author Share Posted May 13, 2011 00Z GGEM Total Rain through hour 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 With enough cold air around that map would have been awesome in the winter just prior to a big snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 You gotta love it when the temp drops nearly 10 deg in one hour!!! ****ing sea breeze. The bodies of water surrounding the city need to warm the hell up. On tuesday I believe, I had the temp drop 20 degrees in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 coastal flooding middle of the week? Onshore flow starts today and we have a full moon on wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 coastal flooding middle of the week? Onshore flow starts today and we have a full moon on wed The flow probably isn't going to be strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 given the overall pattern coming up, the HPC morning discussion, and the almost doubling of the QPF from yesterday to today, it looks to me like the stage is set for a major heavy rainfall event through much of next week. we might want to start a new thread (Earthlight). HPC talking isolated 10+ inch amounts for our area through the five day period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 given the overall pattern coming up, the HPC morning discussion, and the almost doubling of the QPF from yesterday to today, it looks to me like the stage is set for a major heavy rainfall event through much of next week. we might want to start a new thread (Earthlight). HPC talking isolated 10+ inch amounts for our area through the five day period... Jesus...really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 750 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011 VALID 12Z TUE MAY 17 2011 - 12Z FRI MAY 20 2011 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... BUILDING RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A CLOSED CYCLONE UNDER ITS BASE TO GAIN LATITUDE THIS PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY REX-LIKE BLOCK THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS STRONGER RIDGING IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE WESTERLIES REMAIN DISPLACED NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WHICH ALLOWS WESTERN TROUGHING TO RELOAD THIS PERIOD...AND ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF ENERGY THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TO IRON OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE EAST...STARTED WITH A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE...AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARDS AREAS OF 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING WHERE RELEVANT. NO MATTER WHICH PIECE OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES OUT EAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF THE APPLCHNS AND FOOTHILLS. MODEL CONSENSUS TARGET IS NJ/SERN NEW YORK/L.I./SRN NEW ENG WITH HIGHEST PCPN POTENTIAL/BEST LOW-MID LEVEL INFLOW AND HIGHEST PWS..WITH 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. UPDATED PRELIMS MAINLY BASED ON 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS. ROTH/ROSENSTEIN http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 The end of MAY 1984 had a serious rain event here in the tri State area with parts of NNJ having severe flooding for the 2nd time in less than 2 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 coastal flooding middle of the week? Onshore flow starts today and we have a full moon on wed There will be flooding but it wont be coming from the ocean lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 Thankfully it's spring and has been quite dry of late...3-4" we can probably handle especially over an extended period of time...10" would be another story however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 The flooding threat, if there is any, would likely be greatest around the 120+ hr period. That's assuming the models are handing the cutoff ULL correctly, which is highly unlikely in it's own right. But given the mid and low level flow being advertised on the DGEX and to some extent the 12z GFS, this would likely be a bit of a mess by next Wednesday. Hopefully this is all fantasy and it winds up 80 F and sunny forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 13, 2011 Share Posted May 13, 2011 There will be flooding but it wont be coming from the ocean lol. dont underestimate persistant SE flow and a lunar high tide. I think at least minor coastal flooding is likley by tuesday / wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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