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May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion


tmagan

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You gotta love it when the temp drops nearly 10 deg in one hour!!! ****ing sea breeze. The bodies of water surrounding the city need to warm the hell up.

You know it feels good out there right now.

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amazing how consistant temps have been so far this month. Have we ever failed to reach 80 for the entire month of May before?? This will be very interesting.. with this blocky pattern and now headed into a cloudier and cooler regime, it'll be interesting when we hit  80 for a high again.

May 1983,2003 and 2005 all failed to reach 80 degrees here.

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Another beautiful springtime day in Southern Westchester, got the sweet corn (seeds) and white eggplants (transplants from Home Depot) in the ground. Have to go to bed now as work beckons early tomorrow, but it was a great afternoon/evening with comfortable temperatures and brisk southerly winds.

High of 70.1F after a low of 51.5F, delicious. Tomorrow looks awesome with NWS predicting a high of 70F.

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This weather sucks, give me 80's and thunderstorms pleasepopcorn.gif

I with you on that but I rather have hold off until later this month into July then that is when our true severe weather season starts here. Hopefully this blocking pattern will end soon and we will more into warm humid pattern soon that would favor thunderstorms.

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From day 3 - day 8 on the 00z euro the entire area is jackpotted in 5-7" of rain..Cutoff low hangs around for days and produces waves of moisture. The pattern is really blocked up with the NAO continuing to stay negative for another week or 2 until it jumps positive towards the end of the month.

i find it odd that the euro is so wet, the gfs has <2" of rain during the same time period.

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given the overall pattern coming up, the HPC morning discussion, and the almost doubling of the QPF from yesterday to today, it looks to me like the stage is set for a major heavy rainfall event through much of next week. we might want to start a new thread (Earthlight). HPC talking isolated 10+ inch amounts for our area through the five day period...

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given the overall pattern coming up, the HPC morning discussion, and the almost doubling of the QPF from yesterday to today, it looks to me like the stage is set for a major heavy rainfall event through much of next week. we might want to start a new thread (Earthlight). HPC talking isolated 10+ inch amounts for our area through the five day period...

Jesus...really

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PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

750 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2011

VALID 12Z TUE MAY 17 2011 - 12Z FRI MAY 20 2011

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

BUILDING RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS

MANITOBA/ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A CLOSED CYCLONE UNDER ITS

BASE TO GAIN LATITUDE THIS PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GFS SHOWING A

MORE NORTHERLY REX-LIKE BLOCK THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS

STRONGER RIDGING IN SOUTHERN CANADA. THE WESTERLIES REMAIN

DISPLACED NORTH OF CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WHICH ALLOWS

WESTERN TROUGHING TO RELOAD THIS PERIOD...AND ENERGY IS EXPECTED

TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GUIDANCE

IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF ENERGY THROUGH

THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TO IRON OUT DIFFERENCES IN THE EAST...STARTED WITH A 00Z GFS/00Z

ECMWF COMPROMISE...AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARDS AREAS OF 12Z

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING WHERE RELEVANT. NO MATTER WHICH PIECE

OF GUIDANCE VERIFIES OUT EAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A WET PATTERN

ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND

MUCH OF THE APPLCHNS AND FOOTHILLS. MODEL CONSENSUS TARGET IS

NJ/SERN NEW YORK/L.I./SRN NEW ENG WITH HIGHEST PCPN POTENTIAL/BEST

LOW-MID LEVEL INFLOW AND HIGHEST PWS..WITH 3-6 INCHES OF RAIN

EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AND LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES

POSSIBLE.

UPDATED PRELIMS MAINLY BASED ON 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS.

ROTH/ROSENSTEIN

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

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The flooding threat, if there is any, would likely be greatest around the 120+ hr period. That's assuming the models are handing the cutoff ULL correctly, which is highly unlikely in it's own right. But given the mid and low level flow being advertised on the DGEX and to some extent the 12z GFS, this would likely be a bit of a mess by next Wednesday.

Hopefully this is all fantasy and it winds up 80 F and sunny forever.

f138.gif

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