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May 2011 NYC metro area obs./discussion


tmagan

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I don't trust that radar. It's obviously wrong or it would be raining where I am already. The accuwx radar seems more accurate as it doesn't show much activity at all near the city.

http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/local_radar_large.asp?nxtype=r1&type=still&nxsite=KPHL

  On 5/17/2011 at 7:56 PM, YanksFan27 said:

That radar loop looks like it needs to be refreshed, rain is already approaching the city

http://radar.weather...id=dix&loop=yes

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  On 5/17/2011 at 8:10 PM, Plfdwxdude said:

I don't trust that radar. It's obviously wrong or it would be raining where I am already. The accuwx radar seems more accurate as it doesn't show much activity at all near the city.

http://proa.accuweat...ill&nxsite=KPHL

Some of what its showing could be virga

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  On 5/17/2011 at 8:27 PM, forkyfork said:

our main precip event isn't going to look like a band off the ocean, it's going to develop overhead as isentropic lift increases later

notice that the 2" amounts don't extend south over the ocean

Yeah, the WRF simulated radar I posted earlier was hinting at that

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If I were in Upton's boots, I'd consider changing tomorrow's forecast to a less pessimistic mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Also Thursday, some of the guidance is now waning on the precip and cloud cover, I would expect it to be partly sunny with temps around 70. IMO, I just don't see the abundant rainfall happening in most locales. Isolated flooding? Sure. Widespread? Probably not. Then again, if you're near a river the effects can travel downstream and be an impact independent of whether it rains torrents over your house. We'll see though, but my unprofessional guess from observations and model trends has this more of a hit and miss flooding situation rather than a widespread deluge.

Thereafter... sizzle.gif

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  On 5/17/2011 at 11:16 PM, Shades said:

If I were in Upton's boots, I'd consider changing tomorrow's forecast to a less pessimistic mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Also Thursday, some of the guidance is now waning on the precip and cloud cover, I would expect it to be partly sunny with temps around 70. IMO, I just don't see the abundant rainfall happening in most locales. Isolated flooding? Sure. Widespread? Probably not. Then again, if you're near a river the effects can travel downstream and be an impact independent of whether it rains torrents over your house. We'll see though, but my unprofessional guess from observations and model trends has this more of a hit and miss flooding situation rather than a widespread deluge.

Thereafter... sizzle.gif

I agree, I think the big shots of rain are over after the last band tonight which is breaking up somewhat. Probably still some parts of the area that have seen less than an inch.

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  On 5/18/2011 at 12:41 AM, kevbo81 said:

u figure by 10-11pm we get going around most of the area. that is, if the rain holds together. it looked like all day we'd get constant rain off the Atlantic, only for it to die out as it got up here

this event has been a bust for 80-90% of the area so far.... bust meaning the huge totals not verifying...sure, it's been a lousy stretch, but much of the time has been rain free....

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  On 5/18/2011 at 1:17 AM, Brian5671 said:

this event has been a bust for 80-90% of the area so far.... bust meaning the huge totals not verifying...sure, it's been a lousy stretch, but much of the time has been rain free....

Radar is really filling in to the south, however...looks as if those 45-50dbz echoes may train over the Metro later.

I think most of us realized the HPC areas of 4-5" widespread were optimistic. Anyway, I have 1.96" for the event, at 57.7/57 right now.

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