IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 4:47 PM, ag3 said: Its entering LI right now and continues to lift slowly north. the northern edge is sure, but you can see the heaviest stuff being supressed south, on some radar images it looks to be moving more clearly NW than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 A lot of hype in this thread for just some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 4:53 PM, NorEaster27 said: A lot of hype in this thread for just some rain. do you have something better to discuss today? Its not just some rain either, its a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Radar filling in over LI and CT--those that were calling for the action to shift west have busted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 4:53 PM, NorEaster27 said: A lot of hype in this thread for just some rain. I pretty much agree thus far...but the guidance continues to hint at a firehose type setup tonight with heavy rain coming onshore. Certainly isnt over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 You can see some drier mid level air over NJ this afternoon with the main area of rain to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I'm getting downpours right now. I don't know if the steady rain is going to be over western areas but we're still getting rainfall in the bucket with these pop-up variety showers On 5/17/2011 at 4:56 PM, Brian5671 said: Radar filling in over LI and CT--those that were calling for the action to shift west have busted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 The radar also keeps filling in near the Jersey shore, eventually that stuff is going to make it onshore and at least some if it west of the city. If you have any doubts, just take a look at where the dew points are increasing. PW value are also the highest just south and east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 I'm just glad this isn't a snow event or we'd all be freaking out On 5/17/2011 at 5:04 PM, YanksFan27 said: The radar also keeps filling in near the Jersey shore, eventually that stuff is going to make it onshore and at least some if it west of the city. If you have any doubts, just take a look at where the dew points are increasing. PW value are also the highest just south and east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 complete downpour again here in Ramsey, once again, even though the radar hasn't been all that impressive, a lot of NJ are still getting in on rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 4:51 PM, YanksFan27 said: the northern edge is sure, but you can see the heaviest stuff being supressed south, on some radar images it looks to be moving more clearly NW than others. Yep....radar filling in offshore for everyone to have some fun soon. (Of course as long as it makes ashore) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 That rain just south and east of ACY seems to be doing a much better job now of moving north and westward. I think it will likely impact our entire region with a steady widespread rain from mid-afternoon on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 5:28 PM, Euripides said: Yep....radar filling in offshore for everyone to have some fun soon. (Of course as long as it makes ashore) Its nice to see that band setting up in more of a west to east fashion so that even if subsidence occurs, most of us won't miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 4:56 PM, Brian5671 said: Radar filling in over LI and CT--the one person who was calling for the action to shift west has busted.... fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 4:56 PM, Brian5671 said: Radar filling in over LI and CT--those that were calling for the action to shift west have busted.... it hasnt stopped raining in nassau county since 6 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 5:51 PM, TheTrials said: fixed. grow up....and this time when I end up being right, I won't stop telling you about it. LI might be doing better as of now, but were only a few laps into a very long race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 5:28 PM, Euripides said: Yep....radar filling in offshore for everyone to have some fun soon. (Of course as long as it makes ashore) looks like some of the action is fading as it approaches the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 5:55 PM, psv88 said: it hasnt stopped raining in nassau county since 6 am. last time I checked, Nassau was still part of LI.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 6:08 PM, Brian5671 said: last time I checked, Nassau was still part of LI.... I think they may have seceded from the union. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 6:07 PM, Brian5671 said: looks like some of the action is fading as it approaches the coast... If you take a look, alot of the synoptic support features are located just off shore, but they are slowly advancing towards the coast. Give it time. Infrared and water vapor loops both look healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 6:07 PM, Brian5671 said: looks like some of the action is fading as it approaches the coast... and it will keep fading at is had done all morning, there is a good bit of subsidence over the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Starting to see a few breaks of sun again here in Long Beach now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 6:26 PM, TheTrials said: and it will keep fading at is had done all morning, there is a good bit of subsidence over the state. This. And as further evidence of it there are more pockets of brightening/clearing skies in central Jersey once again, eroding the cloud cover. So don't be surprised to see some sun and blue patches again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Hey look, the high res shifted again, what a suprise just like they have shifted every single run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Unlike the other events so far this year, flooding will be slow to occur and will persist over a longer period of time. Most rivers in NE NJ are all ready running 1-3 feet above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 1:17 PM, TheTrials said: The srefs are Meso Scale models but not hi resolution. Don't confuse the ensemble members of the ARW and NMM used in the sref mean for the actual hi resolution OP NMM and ARW MesoScale = Hi Res. Sweet Jesus this thread has been full of bickering all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 6:46 PM, famartin said: MesoScale = Hi Res. Sweet Jesus this thread has been full of bickering all morning. Higher resolution than a global, yes, but not the resolution of the ARW and NMM op. I should have been more clear about what I was saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 On 5/17/2011 at 6:46 PM, famartin said: MesoScale = Hi Res. Sweet Jesus this thread has been full of bickering all morning. and over a bunch of raindrops--if it were snow it would be justified...only thing missing is "JB sez".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 500 mb jet is advancing towards the coast, that should aid in allowing the heavier stuff to make it further onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 17, 2011 Share Posted May 17, 2011 Flood Advisory for Long Island and CT... URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN... FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... NEW HAVEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT... * AT 153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH IN ONE HOUR...IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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