tmagan Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 We may get warm sectored for a time on Wednesday, but all indications are the first week of May will feature clouds and periods of showers/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 It will be interesting to see what this potential cut-off Low does. Dreary wx always a bet with this if it sits atop of us, but if it stays W? then we could get into some unstable S to SW flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 It will be interesting to see what this potential cut-off Low does. Dreary wx always a bet with this if it sits atop of us, but if it stays W? then we could get into some unstable S to SW flow aloft. I was thinking of mentioning that, but the upper-air forcing doesn't seem strong enough to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 I was thinking of mentioning that, but the upper-air forcing doesn't seem strong enough to me. IMO, still too early of a call on this one. Cut off Low placement is always a bI_tch. But, where it lies has a lot to do with the sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Been a wonderful past few days. Clouds and rain will be the story much of this week. Already clouds and showers building into PA. Might not be till Friday before we can clear things out but hopeflly in time for a another great weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Tuesday looks very warm And if you believe the NAM..Wednesday is nice too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Tuesday looks very warm And if you believe the NAM..Wednesday is nice too For the City and west, sure. Maybe we'll even be lucky enough to endure another marine layer-induced fog bank. Seriously, bring on June where it finally can get warm here despite south winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Classic spring day on the coast with the high temp of 67 at 11:30 this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 How long before we see a thread asking if there will be severe weather next Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 High of 70.3F after a low of 46.6F, sunny all day. Yesterday had a high of 64.9F and a low of 49.2F with solid sunshine and just a few puffy clouds. Perfection....lilacs and dogwood taking center stage now, cool-weather crops such as peas, arugula, and cauliflower showing rapid growth. Spring rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Classic spring day on the coast with the high temp of 67 at 11:30 this morning: LOL this is how we can have a high temp similar to the city even with a seabreeze....our temps rise much more quickly in the morning before leveling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Nice...70's later today 70's to 80's tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Nice...70's later today 70's to 80's tomorrow Sucks living on long island cause while your enjoying 80 degree weather were gonna be in the upper 60's near the coast.....dragggg lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 It was such a beautiful weekend here up until yesterday at about mid-afternoon. Deep blue skys, trees and flowers in full bloom. Cut the grass for the first time this year. It's amazing how far removed we seem to be from winters wrath and the Boxing Day Blizzard. Full steam ahead on the nice weather if can get past this ugly stretch. Interestingly NWS is going with a dry sunny forecast for the weekend while TWC is almost a washout, nice agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 look how cranked the jet gets - suprising we end up with virtually no rain according to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2011 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA...MD...WV...VA...WRN NC...FAR ERN TN... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER WI AT 12Z TUE WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z....CONTINUING EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC...BUT DAYTIME HEATING AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE WILL CREATE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH MOSTLY LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE BETWEEN NRN VA AND PA BY AFTERNOON...MOVING NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT SURGING EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. ...PA SWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO NRN GA... SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER MS...TN...AND OH VALLEYS EARLY IN THE DAY...AND MAINLY N OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM WV INTO CNTRL AL AT 12Z TUE. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS BY 00Z...AND STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFOREMENTIONED MIXING WILL LIMIT DEWPOINTS...THUS INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN PA SWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND PIEDMONT AND INTO NRN GA BETWEEN 21-00Z. A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE BEST AREA FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW FROM PA INTO WV/MD/VA...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST...AND...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS. MOISTURE NEAR THE LOW MAY BE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED DUE TO MINIMAL MIXING...AND WITH BACKED SURFACE FLOW...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Sucks living on long island cause while your enjoying 80 degree weather were gonna be in the upper 60's near the coast.....dragggg lol i think people on coastal LI need to accept their fate and stop posting this every time there's a warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 i think people on coastal LI need to accept their fate and stop posting this every time there's a warmup I def know the fate and its always been like this.....seabreeze kicks in and temps drop like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 i think people on coastal LI need to accept their fate and stop posting this every time there's a warmup Yeah it's pretty much a given, no matter how warm the spring is, that coastal LI will have a difficult time getting sustained warmth until June. Any kind of southerly component to the wind direction is no good until really June 15th-30th most years, for LI. Even in the heart of summer, SW/SLY winds will keep LI cooler versus the rest of the area, but by that time, temps are much more enjoyable, in the 70s and 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Nice...70's later today Bust....58.1/48 and OVC here, no sign of any warmth. KNYC up to 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Bust....58.1/48 and OVC here, no sign of any warmth. KNYC up to 60F. Its in the upper 60s to near 70 just south of Newark into Union NJ. Sun breaking out slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Its in the upper 60s to near 70 just south of Newark into Union NJ. Sun breaking out slowly. Only made it to 62 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Sun coming out in midtown, trying to reach the mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Those 70's on the NAM busted big time. It insists on virtually no QPF over the next several days which is very hard to believe. Even the SREF's bring significant precip to the area. The 12z GFS is about as ugly as it gets. If you run the 36hr QPF loop there is only a single frame where we are precip free. Pattern is dominated by east coast troughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 i think people on coastal LI need to accept their fate and stop posting this every time there's a warmup How about we just make the ocean go poof by boiling it away? Yeah it's pretty much a given, no matter how warm the spring is, that coastal LI will have a difficult time getting sustained warmth until June. Any kind of southerly component to the wind direction is no good until really June 15th-30th most years, for LI. Even in the heart of summer, SW/SLY winds will keep LI cooler versus the rest of the area, but by that time, temps are much more enjoyable, in the 70s and 80s. It wasn't like this last spring-- it just depends on the prevailing wind. I hate southerly winds with a passion. And trust me, 70s and 80s in the summer are not enjoyable they are boring lol. Like I said though, last summer was different.... we get a summer like that like every 11 years lol. BTW by July and August, even southerly winds will usually get us to 90 here before temps tail off in the afternoon. The east end not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Those 70's on the NAM busted big time. It insists on virtually no QPF over the next several days which is very hard to believe. Even the SREF's bring significant precip to the area. The 12z GFS is about as ugly as it gets. If you run the 36hr QPF loop there is only a single frame where we are precip free. Pattern is dominated by east coast troughing. the euro is less than .5" precip through 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 How about we just make the ocean go poof by boiling it away? easier would be to extend cape cod by 1000 miles to block the labrador current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 easier would be to extend cape cod by 1000 miles to block the labrador current True, I remember we talked about this over the winter lol. You're right though, no use bitching about it-- this is how it is. Trust me it's much worse in the winter if/when you're getting a foot of snow and it's like 2-4 here and it changes to rain. Fortunately, we haven't had that in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 True, I remember we talked about this over the winter lol. You're right though, no use bitching about it-- this is how it is. Trust me it's much worse in the winter if/when you're getting a foot of snow and it's like 2-4 here and it changes to rain. Fortunately, we haven't had that in a few years. LI can catch CCB's as storms bomb near new england... like march 01, feb 78, and jan 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 LI can catch CCB's as storms bomb near new england... like march 01, feb 78, and jan 11 This is the sucky SW part where our weather is more like coastal NJ-- March 2001 was 5 inches here, Feb 78 "supposedly" 14 inches (we all know it was like 22 lol) and Jan 11 was somewhere between 8-10 inches here (6 inches according to JFK and LGA -- oh well.) December 2009 was another so close yet so far-- 15 inches here.... a foot more than that further east.... I know the city did considerably worse though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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